Tools for Interactive Decisionmaking under Uncertainty on Energy and Climate Change

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Tools for Interactive Decision-making under
Uncertainty on Energy and Climate Change

• Jürgen Scheffran
• ACDIS, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign
• scheffra_at_uiuc.edu
• Climate Science in Support of Decision Making
• Washington, DC, November 15, 2005

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Outline

• Integrated decision-making on energy options
• Adaptive control vs. optimal control in climate
  modeling
• Data and uncertainty in integrated assessment
• Interactive decision-making among multiple actors

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Integrated Decision-making on Energy Options
V(E) p f ? u C(E) / c R(E) q (D/G) (G/E)
(E/Y) (Y/P) P q r g e y P
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Energy in Integrated Assessment
Socio-economic system
Climate system
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Adaptive Control Under Uncertainty
State
x
Threshold
Control
x1
Trend
x0
Uncertainty

• Speed control ?x(t) ? ? (x(t) x(t))

t0
t1
t2
Time
Adaptive decision rules ?x(t) ?(x,t) D(x,t)
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Carbon Limits and Adaptive Emission Rates
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Technical Change and Climate Damage
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Technical Change and Adaptive Control
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Carbon Intensity vs. Accumulated Emissions
Adaptive control
Damage-induced control
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Projections for Population, GDP, Energy, Carbon
GDP in trillion dollar

Adapted from Gopi Rethinaraj 2005
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Relevant Factors
Annual per capita energy use in GJ/person
Annual GDP per capita energy use in thousand
1990 dollars/person
Energy intensity of GDP (GJ per thousand 1990 PPP
dollars)
Adapted from Gopi Rethinaraj 2005
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Randomly Sampled Climate Variables
Adapted from Clifford Singer 2005
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Cumulative Probability Distributions
PDFs for carbon use rates in different years
Gtonne/yr
PDFs for temperature increase in different years
Cumultative probability distribution centiles
(jagged plots), and cumulative normal
disrtibutions fit to the central 95 centiles
(smooth curves) for the indicated years. Adapted
from Clifford Singer 2005
oC
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Factors of Climate Risk Assessment
Mitigation
Adaptation
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Emission Reduction a Global Cooperation Problem
G(t) ?i Gi(t)(1 ri(t)) ? G(t)

• G(t) Global emissions at time t
• G(t) Global emission target at time t
• Gi(t) Baseline emissions path of actor i
• ri(t) Emission reduction of i from baseline

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Integrated Assessment with Multiple Actors
C1 Ci Cn
E1 Ek Em
V1 -V1 Vi -Vi Vn - Vn
fij
pik
cik
vik
Investment
Energy Systems
Values Goals
Allocation Costs Prices
Efficiency Benefits Risks
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Compatibility of Targets between Two Actors
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Tax-induced Technology Switching Among Economic
Competitors
Equilibria in investment space (C1, C2) of two
firms with choice between high emission
technology (p0) and low emission technology
(p1) for tax ? 0 and ? 3.
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Cooperation Channel for Low Emission Technology
Share p2 for new technologies of developing
country
C1C1(0,0)
C2C2(0,0)
p2(z1)
Cooperation channel (reduced costs for both)
(z1, p2)
(0, p2)
Optimal cost allocation
z1(p2)
(z1, 0)
(0,0)
Share z1 for joint activities of industrialized
country
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Simulation of Emission Tradings Among 11 World
Regions

• Emissions/capita
• Tons Carbon

• Total emissions and market price

Years
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Coalition Formation in Energy Use
User
Provider
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Coalitions in Energy ManagementSimulation with 6
users and 6 providers of energy
Baseline case 1
Energy option 2
Case 2 is with higher tax, lower cost and lower
productivity of option 1
Energy option 1
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Positions and Decisions in International Climate
Policy
International Security
International Stabiliity
Coalitions
Cooperation
Policy Module Values Targets Controls
Decision-makers
Stakeholders
Scientific Assessment
Risk Assessment
Viable Guardrails
Integrated Assessment
Population
Ecosystems
Indicators Regulators
Mitigation
Adaptation
Investment
Economic Module Welfare growth
Climate Module Carbon cycle
Emissions
Impacts
Energy Technology
Vulnerabilities
Capabilities
Temperature rate
Damages
Data, Uncertainties and Probabilities in Complex
System Dynamics
Carbon intensity
Climate sensitivity
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Outlook

• Analyse and compare specific energy technologies
  and paths with regard to economic and
  environmental conditions, including climate
  change and risk assessment
• Use advanced methods and modeling tools within
  integrated assessment framework
• Provide data-based modeling tools for adaptive
  control and decision-making under uncertainty
• Develop and integrate climate, economy and
  decisionmaking tools into a probabilistic
  integrated assessment framework on emission
  reductions and climate change
• Involve multi-actor interaction in understanding
  the chance of realization of policy actions.