Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 1829 yearolds

1
Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 18-29
year-olds

• September 2008

2
METHODOLOGY

• The survey was conducted by phone using
  professional interviewers September 8 17, 2008.
  It reached a base sample of 500 18-29 year olds
  nationwide, including 329 reached on landline
  phones and 171 reached on cell phones. There
  were also additional oversamples of 75 Latinos
  and 75 African Americans, for a total sample of
  650 18-29 year olds.
• The data were weighted slightly by gender, race,
  age, party identification, and phone usage in
  order to ensure that they accurately reflect the
  population.
• The margin of error for the survey is /- 4.4
  percentage points.
• Questions marked with an were asked of half of
  the sample.
• Also included are data from our February 2008
  survey.

3
KEY FINDINGS

• Overall, the attitudes of young Americans have
  remained pretty stable in the last few months,
  but intensity has increased. They are more
  engaged in the election, more focused on the
  economy, and more solidly supportive of Obama.
• Democrats maintain a vote advantage at both the
  presidential and Congressional levels, but
  enthusiasm among young Republicans has caught up
  to that of young Democrats since February.
• Young people want change, and Obama has an
  advantage there. Experience is still important
  but doesnt generate the same energy as change.
• The economy is their top priority, and young
  people dont feel like they are hearing enough
  about it from the candidates.
• Young people are really engaged in this election.
  They are talking about it with friends and
  family and opting in over the internet, seeking
  out information on their own.

4
Political Environment

• Young Adults are still change oriented and since
  February, they have become even more focused on
  pocketbook concerns like the economy and gas
  prices.

5
More than two-thirds of 18-29 year-olds believe
the country is on the wrong track. The energy
for change has remained strong since February.
February
September
-43
-43
Among all adults, 14 say Right Direction and 81
say Wrong Track.
Generally speaking, do you think things in the
country are going in the right direction, or do
you think things are pretty seriously off on the
wrong track?
6
Across the board, young people dont like the way
things are going in the country. Women,
Democrats, and African Americans are particularly
disappointed in the countrys direction, but even
younger Republicans remain net-negative.
7
Since February, young adults have become even
more focused on the economy. Their second
concern is gas prices, also up since February and
a part of their pocketbook woes.
Among all adults, 48 cite jobs and the economy
as their top concern, followed terrorism and
national security (14), and gas prices and
health care (10 each).
In Sept. 2006, the top concerns among young
people were education and the cost of college
(17), jobs and the economy (13), and the war in
Iraq (11).
I am going to read you a list of concerns that
some people have. Please tell me which one of
these you would most like the next President to
do something about?
8
When asked what the FIRST priority of the next
President should be, younger Americans are even
more focused on the economy. The war in Iraq and
gas prices also come to the fore as the most
urgent issues for the next president.
Regardless of who you plan to support for
president, once that person is elected and sworn
into office, what is the FIRST thing you want
them to do something about?
9
Young Democrats are very focused on the economy,
while independents and Republicans have more
diffuse issue agendas, though the economy is the
top issue across party lines. Cost of college is
also important for independents.
10
Young people are firmly focused on the economy
and believe they have not heard enough about it.
College affordability, health care, and gas
prices are also issues that young people are not
hearing enough about.
Here are some issues candidates for president
might talk about this fall. Please tell me if
thus far you think candidates have spent too much
time, not enough time, or about the right amount
of time discussing each issue.
11
The issues what will determine young Americans
votes in November are also the ones that they are
not hearing enough about. Candidates need to
speak to their financial concerns if they want to
connect and help drive these voters to the polls.
Creating Jobs
Gas Prices and Energy
War in Iraq
Health Care
Homeland Security and Terrorism
College Affordability
Immigration
Moral and Values Based Issues
Global Warming and the Environment
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Attitudes Toward Voting and the 2008 Election

• Attention and enthusiasm toward this election has
  increased since February. Young people are
  talking about this election, and they recognize
  its historic potential.

13
Half of 18-29 year-olds identify themselves as
Democrats, and about a third self-identify as
Republicans. This Democratic advantage has grown
from only 10 points in November of 2006.
In November of 2006, 40 of young adults
identified themselves as Democrats, 30 as
Republicans, and 23 as independents.
21
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a
Republican, a Democrat, an independent, or
something else?
14
Interest in the election has intensified since
the primary season, when young people turned out
in record numbers.
February
September
Thinking specifically about this years election,
how closely would you say you have followed the
election extremely closely, very closely,
somewhat closely, a little closely, or not at all
closely?
15
Nearly nine in ten young people say they are
likely to vote in November, with more than
two-thirds saying they are extremely likely.
In September 2006, only 69 said they were likely
to vote, and fewer than half (44) said they were
extremely likely.
What is the likelihood that you will vote in the
NOVEMBER election for President, Congress, and
other offices are you extremely likely, very
likely, somewhat likely, or not very likely at
all to vote?
16
Republicans have caught up to Democrats in terms
of their engagement in this election. In
February, young Republicans lagged behind
Democrats in vote likelihood, but now
three-quarters of both say they are extremely
likely to vote.
February 2008
17
About a third would be first time voters, but
two-thirds of adults under 30 say that they have
voted before.

• Most Likely to Be First Time Voters
• Age 17-22 (48)
• Students (44)
• African Americans (40)
• African American women (44)
• Unmarried men (40)
• Not working full-time (38)
• Non-college graduates (36)
• Independents (34)
• Independent men (40)

Will this election be your first time voting?
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Young voters feel more empowered as a group than
they do as individuals. They also feel that the
potential of electing the first African American
president is more significant than a female vice
president. Either way, young voters do see this
as an historic election.
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with
each of the following statements.
19
Women are more likely than men to see the
historical significance of Obamas run, but women
do not place greater importance on Palins
nomination than men. African Americans have the
highest sense of empowerment in this election and
the greatest appreciation of its historical
significance.
20
Among those who are most likely to agree strongly
about the significance of Palins selection as
the Republican VP candidate, Republicans,
especially Republican women.
21
Young people are talking about this election.
More than nine in ten have spoken to friends or
family about it. More than half have watched a
candidate video on the internet, and more than a
third have visited a candidate website or emailed
a friend. Young people are opting into this
election by word of mouth and over the internet.
Democrats (29) are more likely than Republicans
(17) to have done 3 or more of these political
activities.
During election campaigns, people sometimes look
for information or get involved in different
ways. In which of the following ways have you
come into contact with political candidates or
groups in THIS election? Have you
22
In terms of news sources, again, friends and
family are the most common source of information
about the election and other issues. Young
people also watch cable, local, and national
television news. And contrary to conventional
wisdom, less than half say they get their news
from programs like The Daily Show.
Now Im going to read you some ways that people
follow the news and elections. For each, please
tell me if you follow the news or the election
that way. Do you?
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The Candidates

• Support for both candidates has solidified since
  February, and Obama retains his advantage on the
  qualities that young people are looking in a
  candidate for president.

24
Barack Obama is the most popular among the
candidates for president and vice president.
Both McCain and Palin have net-negative ratings
among young Americans.
Never heard of/ No opinion
4
8
33
23
20
Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures
and organizations. For each one, please tell me
whether you have a very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable impression of that person.
25
Among independents, Obama is also very popular.
McCain fares better as well, with more than half
saying they have a favorable impression of him.
Never heard of/ No opinion
INDEPENDENTS ONLY
9
8
41
26
Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures
and organizations. For each one, please tell me
whether you have a very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable impression of that person.
26
Both Obamas and McCains favorable numbers have
remained steady since February, but negatives are
up for both, with McCain going from a
net-positive to a net-negative rating.
Never heard of/ No opinion
20
22
4
11
8
24
Now I'd like to ask you about some public figures
and organizations. For each one, please tell me
whether you have a very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable impression of that person.
27
About half of young adults plan to vote
Democratic on the Congressional ballot in the
fall. This is closely in line with their party
identification.
February
September
In September 2006, 43 of young people said
theyd vote for the Democrat and 22 planned to
vote for the Republican.
25
22
If the election for the U.S. House of
Representatives were held today, would you vote
for
28
The Democratic advantage extends across gender,
race/ethnic groups, and education levels. Most
young independents are undecided but they
currently lean Democratic as well.
Net Democrat
22
16
28
7
41
69
85
6
-75
19
30
9
25
29
Obama maintains a strong lead over McCain among
young voters. While overall support levels have
not changed, supporters of both candidates are
more intensely supportive now than in February.
February
September
30
27
And, if the election for President were held
today, and the candidates were (ROTATE)
Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary
Clinton/Barack Obama, for whom would you vote,
or are you undecided?
30
There is a gender gap among young adults. Half
of young men support Obama, but nearly two-thirds
of women. Independents lean toward Obama, but
many remain undecided.
Net Obama
Undecided
27
13
17
13
36
13
12
13
29
3
91
14
87
3
8
36
-69
16
19
14
37
13
12
9
33
14
31
One in ten voters who do not currently support
McCain say there is a fair chance that they will
support him in November. For Obama, that number
is nearly a quarter.
Likelihood to Switch to Obama
Likelihood to Switch to McCain
Even though you are not supporting Barack
Obama/John McCain now, what are the chances that
you might support Obama/McCain in the election
for president in November?
32
McCain still holds the advantage on experience
and has narrowed the gap a bit on other traits,
but Obama still holds large advantages on change
and sharing the values and understanding the
problems of young Americans.
Net Obama
Feb.
Sept.
McCain Obama
53
52
53
47
26
18
-19
-16
33
Young voters want change. That is the top trait
they are looking for in a candidate and currently
Obama has the advantage on that level. But each
of these qualities are important to their vote.
Mean
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.2
34
Obama owns the top candidate quality among young
Americans. Change is important to young voters
and Obama has the clear advantage. McCains
greatest strength, experience, is not as central
to their vote in an environment where change
rules the day.
Will Bring Change
Shares Your Values
Understands the Problems of People Your Age
Has the Right Experience
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Findings from a Nationwide Survey of 18-29
year-olds

• September 2008

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