Midlands Lunch 29 March 2006

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TPA-YouGov Party Conference Season Poll 2007
The TaxPayers Alliance 43 Old Queen Street,
London SW1H 9JA 0845 330 9554 www.taxpayersallianc
e.com
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Introduction

• Each year, the TaxPayers Alliance conducts a
  landscape poll on the eve of the party conference
  season to assess public opinion on our key issues
  of taxation, spending and better government. This
  year, we commissioned YouGov to carry out the
  polling and we are very grateful for the
  knowledge and experience that Stephan Shakespeare
  and Anthony Wells put into the poll.
• Two caveats are worth bearing in mind when
  reading the poll and the analysis
• Last years party conference season poll was
  carried out by ICM, a telephone pollster. YouGov
  conducts online polls, so some of the comparisons
  we make between 2006 and 2007 may be affected
  slightly by this methodological difference.
• Although over two thousand adults took part
  in this poll a large sample compared to most
  other polls the regional differences we
  highlight in parts of the analysis are only based
  on a sample of a few hundred people in a
  particular region, so should not be considered to
  be as accurate as the nationwide results.
• We hope that the poll and our analysis contained
  in this report will inform the policy debate
  during the party conference season in 2007.
• Matthew Elliott
• Chief Executive, TPA

All figures in this report, unless otherwise
stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size
was 2,162 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken
between 28th-30th August 2007. The survey was
carried out online. The figures have been
weighted and are representative of all GB adults
(aged 18). YouGov is a member of the British
Polling Council, further information at
www.yougov.com. The full poll tables are
available upon request.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Underlying party ID (1)
When the TaxPayers Alliance conducted its party
conference season poll last year, Tony Blair was
still Prime Minister. The arrival of Gordon Brown
has changed underlying party identification.
People were asked to say whether they were (a)
satisfied with Labours record (b) not satisfied
but still prefer Labour in charge to the
Conservatives or (c) not satisfied and would
prefer a Conservative government. (Analysis
overleaf)
Aug 2006 (ICM)
Aug 2007 (YouGov)
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Underlying party ID (2)
Gordon Brown's arrival as Prime Minister has
bolstered the underlying majority that identify
with the Labour party, shoring up their support.
About five percentage points of voters who were
not satisfied with the government last year but
still preferred Labour to the Conservatives, are
now satisfied with the government. An equal
share as last time (49) prefer Labour to the
Conservatives overall, but those who would prefer
a Conservative government has declined from 36
to 29. This shift can be explained in part by
the increase in undecideds (Don't knows, up
from 2 to 6) and unsatisfied voters (None of
These, up from 12 to 17). There are more
unsatisfied voters among C2DEs than ABC1s.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Financial worries (1)
Tax features twice in the top five financial
worries for British families. Anxiety and
over-stretch would be eased by lower taxes.
(Analysis overleaf)
Which, if any, of the following would you say
are major financial worries for you and your
family?
Most worrying
Least worrying
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Financial worries (2)
Too often the rising cost of living is not put in
the context of the other routine expenditure each
month the average tax bill families pay. In
line with its general unpopularity (see Fairness
of major taxes and Tax cutting priorities
below), the high levels of council tax are the
second most worrying financial issue for
families, behind the rising cost of utility bills
(a factor largely beyond the control of British
politicians). Inflation generally is the third
biggest worry followed by house price
affordability the biggest concern of three
quarters of young voters 18-24. The cost of
utility bills (followed by the high level of
council tax) is the biggest worry for households
aged 55, reflecting the harm above-inflation
rises in council tax and hikes in the price of
gas and water have caused pensioners on low or
fixed-incomes. The rising tax burden generally
is more of a worry than personal debt, mortgage
repayments or job security (the risk of
unemployment). This suggests that people do not
yet feel insecure and that economic stability
may not be the top priority that some
Conservatives have implied.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Labours rising tax burden
Taxes have risen since 1997 and the vast majority
of people have felt the pinch.
Since the current Government was elected in
1997, do you think you are personally paying more
tax, less tax, or about the same amount?
There is no ambiguity in most peoples minds
about what has happened to their personal tax
burden. Stealth taxes or otherwise, 70 believe
they are paying more tax than in 1997 and only 1
in 10 think they are paying about the same.
Only 4 think they are paying less. More men than
women think they are paying higher tax than in
1997 (79 vs. 62) which could partly be
explained by tax credits benefits chiefly
received by mothers. More middle-class
professionals (ABC1s) than working class voters
(C2DEs) feel they are paying more or
significantly more tax.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Further tax rises to come
The polling also found a great deal of pessimism
amongst voters about the future tax burden.
Do you think overall taxes will be higher or
lower in three years time than they are now?
The awareness of the high tax burden now is
combined with strong expectations across all
groups that taxes will rise even further in
future. A massive majority (79) think taxes will
be higher in three years time than they are now.
A mere 2 think taxes will be lower. 86 of
Conservative identifiers expect them to be higher
by the end of the next Comprehensive Spending
Review than they are now, as do 72 of Labour
voters. Women generally (at 81) are more
pessimistic than men. Young voters (albeit only
7) are the most optimistic that the tax burden
will fall over the next three years.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Fair level of tax (1)
77 think that the government should not be able
to take more than a quarter of a familys income
in tax. Voters know they are taxed much more than
this. (Analysis overleaf)

• What is the maximum proportion of an average
  households income that government should be able
  to take in taxes?
• And what the proportion of an average
  households income do you think actually does go
  in taxes?

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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Fair level of tax (2)
To the best of our knowledge, people in Britain
have not been polled before about what they think
a fair level of taxation is. In the United
States, similar poll questions for the Tax
Foundation have consistently shown that large
majorities believe the maximum amount it is fair
to tax people around 15 is significantly
less than the real tax burden. The party
conference season poll shows that most British
voters think the tax burden is unfairly high and
government should go back to taxing no more than
a quarter of an average households income. A
super-majority of 77 think government should tax
25 or less from households, with the average
preferred tax take being 16. The last time the
British tax burden was this low was in the 1920s.
Most women prefer lower taxes than men
(averages of 14 vs. 18). It is worth
stressing that these proportions are not given
through ignorance of the current tax burden.
People are fully aware of how much more tax they
pay in reality. Most thought that between 25 and
40 of an average households income went in
taxes, with the average being 32. The actual
figure is 35 according to the latest edition of
the ONSs Effects of Taxes and Benefits on
Household Income. The total UK tax burden is,
of course, much higher, at 42.7 of GDP,
according to the OECD.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Fairness of major taxes (1)
People think that council tax is Britain's most
unfair tax, followed closely by the BBC licence
fee. (Analysis overleaf)
Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means very
fair and 5 means not at all fair, please
indicate what you think of these taxes in terms
of fairness.
Most unfair
Most fair
NB The average is the mean of all the responses.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Fairness of major taxes (2)
Council tax has doubled in a decade and is now
seen as the most unfair tax (as it was in 2006).
The tax is significantly more unpopular among
older voters than those under 24. The BBC
licence fee is seen as the second most unfair
tax, followed by inheritance tax. Opposition to
the licence fee is highest among working class
voters (C2DEs) with 67 branding it unfair
(compared to 59 of ABCs) Most people rate
direct or poll taxes levied at a flat rate as
the most unfair, with business taxes and indirect
taxes on alcohol and tobacco being seen as the
most fair.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Tax cutting priorities (1)
Despite a general consensus amongst the main
political parties on the current high tax burden,
suggestions of possible future tax cuts have been
floated informally by all parties. Some are more
attractive to voters than others. (Analysis
overleaf)
Some people have suggested reducing the tax
burden in a number of ways. Which, if any, of the
following tax cuts would you like to see,
regardless of whether you think they are likely?
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Tax cutting priorities (2)
Unsurprisingly, and in line with the TPAs party
conference season poll last year, council tax is
the most hated tax in Britain. Support for
council tax cuts is highest among C2DEs and with
people identifying with all parties and none
including almost two thirds of Labour
identifiers. It is also universally unpopular
geographically even in the North, where average
rises have been less marked. There is a high
level of support for an increase in the tax-free
personal allowance a tax cut that benefits all
earners but would also take the poorest out of
tax altogether. Support for this tax cut is
highest amongst Conservatives, and voters aged
over 55. Inheritance tax remains one of the
most unpopular taxes in the UK proving that
opposition is based on principle, not the
likelihood of an individual's own estate being
caught by the 40 levy. More than half of Labour
voters would like to see it cut and, comparing it
to last years pre-conference poll, it appears
that abolishing it outright scores more highly
(73, ICM Aug 06) than simply excluding the main
home (63, YouGov Aug 07). Abolishing stamp
duty for first time buyers whilst not an across
the board tax cut, more a targeted tax break is
surprisingly popular, especially among voters in
the South and South West and Liberal Democrat
identifiers. However, abolishing stamp duty on
share transactions as floated by George Osborne
is the least popular tax cut proposed.
Lowering the basic rate of income tax from 22
pence in the pound is the fifth most popular tax
cut option. It was the option Gordon Brown chose
in his March 2007 Budget (partly paid for by
scrapping the 10p starting rate).
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Tax pledge (1)
There has been a big shift in favour of tax cuts.
Thinking about the present levels of tax on the
one hand and the state of the public services
(like health and education) on the other, do you
think the party you support should pledge to
increase taxes, hold taxes at their present level
or to reduce taxes?
A super-majority (82) oppose any increase in the
tax burden a major shift from the 1990s when
more supported tax increases to generate extra
investment for public services. Now, only 6
would like to see taxes rise and 38 think they
should be held at their present level but not
rise any further. With this level of opposition,
it would be almost impossible to run on a
tax-raising platform at an election and win. The
fact that the two main parties now have identical
commitments on growing spending, pit them at odds
with 44 of the electorate who want the party
they support to reduce taxes. This includes 61
of Conservative identifiers compared to less than
a third (29) who want the Tories to hold taxes
at their present level (the current Conservative
Party position).
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Tax pledge (2)
A public pledge not to increase taxes would
benefit parties at an election.
If the party that you generally support signed a
public pledge not to increase taxes in
government, would this make you more or less
likely to vote for them, or would it make no
difference?
In the United States, the pressure group
Americans for Tax Reform runs a Tax Pledge
campaign before elections to encourage
politicians to state clearly their position on
tax, and allow taxpayers to hold them to account
if elected. A similar pledge in the UK not to
increase the tax burden would be popular. 40 of
respondents said a signed public pledge not to
increase taxes would make them more likely to
vote for their preferred Party, and only 5 said
it would make them less likely. General cynicism
about politicians may explain why so many (44)
say it would make no difference if the party they
support signed a tax pledge.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Spending a tax cut (1)
Trusting people to spend more of their own money
pays off. (Analysis overleaf)
Some people have suggested doubling the personal
allowance the amount people can earn before
paying tax to 10,000. This would give all
taxpayers up to an extra 1,000 per year. If this
happened how would you use the extra 1,000?
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Spending a tax cut (2)
Some commentators and politicians rely on an
unspoken assumption that most people and by
implication often the poorest would squander a
one-off tax cut. In other words, tax cuts would
not improve people's lives because they would be
badly spent when people made the wrong choices.
In fact, when people are asked how they would
spend a concrete tax reduction of up to 1,000
they prove how responsible people are with their
own money. The most popular option was using it
to pay off credit cards and reduce debt, followed
by spending a little more on everyday things
more of a priority as the current high tax burden
and creeping inflation erode average disposable
incomes. When savings, topping-up a pension and
reducing debt are combined, they amount to 54,
with people clearly favouring investing in their
own future over spending now. A third of young
adults 18-24 would put it towards their savings.
Only 2 said they would spend it on a family
holiday (even though in most cases such a choice
would be richly deserved with Tax Freedom Day
falling on the 1 June in 2007). With this
amount of money, people are responsible but
self-interested, rather than altruistic. A 1,000
tax cut is seen as a personal reward or bonus,
not a gift.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Value for money
Less than one in ten think they get excellent or
good value for money for the taxes they pay.
How would you rate the value you personally get
from the council tax/taxes you pay to
local/central government?
People strongly feel that they do not get good
value for money for the taxes they pay to local
and central government. Only 1 of respondents
said they thought the value they personally got
from taxes was excellent. One in six overall
described the value they get from the taxes they
pay as bad, ranging from 10 per cent in Wales
to 21 in the East of England. 21 of
Conservative voters thought the value they
received from council tax was bad compared to
10 of Labour identifiers and 6 of Liberal
Democrats. Overall, Liberal Democrat and Labour
identifiers are most satisfied with the return
they get for the taxes they pay, but half of all
respondents described the value they receive as
poor or bad.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Government waste
A majority believe that the government wastes
more than 20 of every 100 they spend.
For every 100 the Government spends overall,
how much of that money do you think is wasted
through mismanagement or unnecessary spending
that doesn't give value for money?
The first time the TPA polled this question with
YouGov in March 2005, we uncovered strong
suspicion among a clear majority of voters that
the government was routinely wasting more than a
fifth of the money it spent (about 100bn last
year). Eighteen months on, the waste narrative is
even more deeply ingrained. Now more than
two-thirds (69) think that the government wastes
one in every six pounds that it spends and a
clear majority (53) think that the government
wastes one pound in every five that it spends.
62 of voters in the West Midlands take this
view. Conservative identifiers are most convinced
by waste, with 65 thinking that more than a
fifth of government spending is wasted, compared
to 40 of Labour and Liberal Democrat
identifiers. Young people 18-24 and Liberal
Democrat identifiers are most likely to say that
less is being wasted.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Waste is getting worse
Government waste is high and getting worse.
Do you think Government has got better or worse
at spending taxpayers money over the last ten
years?
Since the waste spectacle of the Dome in the
run-up to the Millennium, people think waste has
got even worse. A clear majority of 54 think the
government has got worse at spending taxpayers
money over the last decade, with only one in ten
(11) saying it has got better.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Public service spending
A big majority think politicians have spent the
recent historic increases in public spending
badly.
Overall, would you say that the extra money the
government has spent on public services such as
health and education over the last decade has
generally been
Two-thirds (65) think the extra money government
has spent on health and education over the last
decade has been spent badly, against less than a
fifth (19) who say it has been spent well. Older
voters (72) are most likely to think that money
has been spent badly. This attitude applies
across party identification, with more Labour
voters thinking the money has generally been
spent badly than spent well (46 vs. 38).
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Causes of wasteful spending
Voters blame bureaucracy and needless
reorganisations for wasteful spending.
Which of the following do you think are the most
important causes of wasteful spending in
government?
When asked what they think causes wasteful
spending, big majorities blame government
bureaucracy (62) and the habit of constant
changes, reorganisations and re-branding (66).
This suggests that stories of expensive logo
changes and rebranding of government departments
are seen as one of the biggest causes of waste.
It also suggests the Conservative campaign on NHS
cuts blamed on constant reorganisation does
resonate with people. A lot of people (60) just
think money is spent too often on the wrong
things and just under a third (31) blame
inexperienced politicians and civil servants.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Lower taxes/frontline services
Most people agree that if you reform public
services and cut waste, services can improve
while taxes are reduced.
Do you agree or disagree that if Britain
reformed public services and cut waste it could
lower taxes without having to cut spending on
vital services?
Sources ICM, Jan 2007 YouGov, Aug 2007
A strong belief that there is widespread waste is
making people more likely to support
non-conventional propositions on tax and spend.
Many people are now so disillusioned with the
poor return for higher spending that they no
longer believe extra money is the way to improve
schools and hospitals, and you could cut waste
without harming frontline services. In fact, 66
believe that you can improve services while
reducing taxes if you cut waste and improve
efficiency by reforming how the public services
are run up from 54 in the New Year.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Level of tax and spend
There has also been a decisive shift since 2005
for a government that spends less and taxes less.
The money the government spends on public
services and other things comes mainly from
taxation. Do you think
Even in 2005, when the TPA first polled this
question, most people believed that the
Government spent too much and therefore taxes
were too high. But that has now become a clear
majority view, up by 15 and now endorsed by
almost two-thirds of voters. It is view most
strongly held by older voters (69 of over those
aged 55), compared to 48 of adults under 24. In
2005, a quarter thought the government had got
the tax and spend balance about right that
figure has dropped to less than 1 in 5. The
number saying the government spends too little
and therefore taxes us too little has collapsed
to just 4. A massive majority of Conservative
identifiers (85) think the government spends too
much and therefore taxes too much, but so do half
of Labour voters. Those identified as supporting
Another Party or No Party take a similarly
strong view (75 and 65 respectively).
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Present system of government
Large majorities think the present system of
government in Britain needs serious improvement.
Which of these statements best describes your
opinion of the present system of government in
Britain?
Party politics aside, public scepticism about tax
is matched by a view that the present system of
government in Britain does not work well. Only 1
agreed that the present system works extremely
well and could not be improved. 62 thought that
the present system of government could be
improved quite a lot or needed a great deal of
improvement. A third thought it could be improved
in small ways but mainly works well.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Ministerial competence (1)
Gordon Brown and David Camerons decision to
recruit non-MPs to front bench positions in the
Government and Opposition respectively is widely
supported. This is unsurprising seeing as the
public has such a low opinion of the competence
of senior politicians. (Analysis overleaf)
In the latest round of reshuffles the Prime
Minister Gordon Brown and the Opposition leader
David Cameron both appointed some people from
outside Parliament with relevant skills and
experience to be Ministers. Do you think this is
a
Which of the following statements do you agree
with more?
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Ministerial competence (2)
There is strong support from more than two-thirds
(69) for the unconventional move by Gordon Brown
and David Cameron to appoint outsiders with
relevant skills and experience to be Ministers
and Shadow Ministers. Public scepticism about the
competence of politicians to run public services
is driving these attitudes. Almost two-thirds
(63) think that few if any senior politicians
have the necessary experience, competence and
knowledge to run public services, with just over
one in ten (12) thinking that senior politicians
do have the necessary skills. Over half of
Labour and Liberal Democrat identifiers and 76
of Conservative identifiers think senior
politicians lack the necessary skills and
experience to run public services.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Education and Healthcare
The poll found strong resistance to politicians
having day-to-day involvement in managing public
services.
Do you think that politicians should set the
overall policy on education and health services?
Do you think that politicians should manage the
day-to-day delivery of education and health
services?
Almost half (49) think that politicians should
not even be involved in setting overall policy on
education and health services. This confirms a
similar question in our last party conference
season poll where 60 agreed that Schools and
hospitals are too important to be run by
politicians who run things badly. There is even
stronger resistance to politicians attempting to
manage the day-to-day delivery of education and
health, with 73 saying they should not be
involved.
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Giving away 200
People think charity starts at home and trust
local solutions to poverty, not top-down
government or big charities.
If you had 200 that had to be given to a good
cause, who would you give it to?
When asked how they would spend 200 that had to
be given to a good cause, people instinctively
distrust politicians to spend that money
effectively. Only 3 said they would give the
money to central or local government to spend on
fighting poverty. In contrast ten times as many
(31) would favour direct personal assistance to
a person or family in need, and a quarter would
prioritise a local charity or church. A national
charity is the preferred option for just 7 of
people and only 9 would give to an international
charity. Liberal Democrat identifiers are more
likely to favour donating the 200 to an
organisation working with poor people in the
third world (19).
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Moving abroad (1)
17 million people are moving abroad or have given
it serious thought including up to half of
young adults. This is almost double the figure we
found in 2006. (Analysis overleaf)

• Have you given serious thought to or are you
  planning to move abroad?
• No, neither
• Yes, I have given serious thought to moving
  abroad
• Yes, I am planning to move abroad

Sources ICM, Aug 2006 / YouGov, Aug 2007
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Party Conference Season Poll 2007
Moving abroad (2)
In our last party conference season poll, the
vast majority of respondents (78) had not
considered moving abroad. That has now fallen by
almost a quarter to 54, while the number who say
they have considered emigration has doubled to
more than a third (36) equivalent to 17
million British adults. Four per cent of all
respondents equivalent to 1.9 million adults
say they are actively planning emigration (down
slightly from 6). Among young adults aged under
35, the proportion saying they are actively
planning emigration is double the average and
higher than any other age group, including over
55s. Amongst young people aged 18-24 the
proportion saying they have considered or are
actively planning to leave Britain has increased
from 26 to 40 and among young adults (24-34),
it has increased from 31 to 50. Together this
amounts to 6.2 million young adults who have
considered emigration, and a staggering 1 million
young adults aged under 35 who are actively
planning to leave Britain. Most of those planning
to emigrate are therefore young professionals,
not retired baby-boomers looking to settle in
Spain as many have suggested. The prospect of
emigration was equally attractive to all social
classes, but slightly less appealing to Scottish
respondents and Labour and Liberal Democrat
identifiers. A majority of Conservative
identifiers have either considered emigration or
are actively planning it.