Midterm results

1

• Midterm results
• Final January 22, 5 PM (Schuman)
• Final papers due January 22, 5 PM
• Remainder of the course tentative roadmap
• Lipset, Romania Ukraine, Varshney
• Final papers? (Discussion)

2
Midterm

• Mean 63.4
• Median 68.0
• Discussion

3
Discussion/problems

• Make sure you understand (all) the questions
• Make sure you know how to answer them
• Answer the question asked!
• Longer answers are not necessarily better
• If you use examples, make sure they are relevant
  (and they are indeed examples of what you claim
  they are)

4
Development

• The best measure of development and well-being
  is HDI. HDI is
• Conclusion, not the answer itself
• Income per capita merely shows the big
  differences within a country
• An average can never show differences
• Full answer
• ? income inequality
• ? social development

5
Federations

• US as the only historical example of a
  coming-together federation?
• Switzerland as mononational state?
• Three features of federalism
• Hair color (e.g., blond, black, red) is one
  characteristic - with several possible values
• Similarly, a federation can emerge as
  coming-together, holding-together, or
  putting-together but emergence is one
  feature/variable

6

• What explains colonialism? vs. What explains
  the sequence of colonization?
• Technology Economics ? Colonization
• Conditions in potential colonies ? Sequence
  (America gt Asia gt Africa)
• Centripetalism
• Cannot discuss centripetalism without the magic
  word
• Institutions (everybody likes moderation but
  centripetalists claim that they can achieve this
  goal via institutional design)

7
Tentative roadmap

• Next week (12) finish discussion on democracy
• ? Landman, Transitions to Democracy
• ? Okonta, Nigeria Chronicle of a Dying State
• ? Menon, Indias Democracy Provides Lessons
• ? Caroters, Democracys Sobering State
• Week 13 Modernization Dependency
• Week 14 Globalization

8
Economic development ? Democracy

• Is there a relationship between development and
  democracy?
• If so, why is that the case, and what is the
  nature of this relationship?
• Causal (endogenous)
• Economic development ? Democracy
• Exogenous (ED sustains democracy, but does not
  make a country democratic)
• Does the relationship still hold?

9
Criticisms comments

• Artificial divisions? (Latin America vs. Europe)
• Does Lipset ( Lerner)s argument apply to
  Romania (Eastern Europe)?
• If not, why not? Counter-arguments?
• Poverty and support for Communism what is
  Lipsets argument?
• economic development is not a predictor of
  the democratic stability or durability
• economically developed states can have a very
  unstable political system, according to
  Huntington and O Donnell

10

• Throwing the bums out democracies vs.
  autocracies
• E.g., poor economic performance government
  crisis vs. regime crisis
• What about good economic performance?
• Does it preserve both democracy and autocracy?
• Can you think of a mechanism that would work
  differently in different regimes?

11
Modernization theory

• Economic development
• Social development
• Values (pro-democratic)
• Democracy

12
Social Economic Development ( Political
Consequences) Romania Ukraine

• Is economic social development reflected in
  (aggregate) partisan support?
• Are various indicators of development correlated?
• E.g., urbanization infant mortality
• ? Romania?
• ? Ukraine?

13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
Answers

• Artificial divisions? (Latin America vs. Europe)
• Good point! Seems to suggest region is as
  important as development
• Does Lipset ( Lerner)s argument apply to
  Romania (Eastern Europe)?
• If not, why not? Counter-arguments?
• Defective modernization? (still, notable
  differences between modern Romania and
  non-modern Romania)

20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
Criticisms comments

• Poverty and support for Communism rapid economic
  development ? support for Communism
• economic development is not a predictor of
  the democratic stability or durability
• New studies economic development sustains
  democracy and increases the probability of
  democratic transitions
• economically developed states can have a very
  unstable political system, according to
  Huntington and O Donnell
• It is not economic development per se, rather, it
  is rapid economic development that is potentially
  dangerous

23
(No Transcript)
24
(No Transcript)
25
Political Radicalism in Romania who voted for
Tudor in 2000?

• Neither the old, rural, uneducated Romanians (PSD
  voters, pre-modern Romania)
• Nor young, urban, well-educated and affluent
  Romanians (PNL/PD voters, modern Romania)
• Rather, young, urban blue-collar males with
  average (vocational) education, a product of
  defective modernization (rapid modernization
  from above)

26

• Support for left decreases with urbanization,
  educational level, and family income and
  increases with the voters age The liberal vote
  is a weak mirror image of the leftist vote,
  cresting in the metropolitan areas and among
  educated, well-heeled, and youthful voters,
  while the extreme right gets its best support
  from younger voters and the technically
  trained.
• Timothy Colton. 2000. Transitional Citizens.
  Voters and What Influence Them in The New Russia
  (pp. 78-79)

27
Varshney, Indian democracy(?)

• (1) India ruled by an oligarchy
• (Nehru dynasty Jawaharlal Nehru gt Indira Gandhi
  gt Rajiv Gandhi gt Sonia Gandhi)
• (2) Leadership from upper casts
• Thus, is India really a democracy?

28
Counter-arguments?

• (i) Is Western World spared by dynastic
  tendencies?
• E.g., Bush senior gt Bill Clinton gt G.W. Bush gt
  Hillary Clinton?
• Gandhi dynasty vs. Berlusconi or Austrian Free
  Democrats
• (ii) Are Western elites any more
  representative?
• Romanian democracy?

29
Final paper criteria for evaluation

• Clear thesis
• Quality of argumentation
• Quality of writing
• Logical consistency
• Argument ? Evidence (connection)
• Only relevant arguments and information
  evidence included
• Relevant literature discussed