Nigeria

1
Nigeria
Unfulfilled dreams and missed opportunities
2

• Largest population in Africa, but no real
  accurate number (120-140 mill?) growing pop.
  shifting from rural to urban
• Low GDP and per capita GDP, but very large black
  market
• 99 of export income from oil govt/economy is
  totally reliant on intl market prices for
  revenue
• Social divisions
• 250-400 different ethnic groups, 4000 dialects
• ½ Muslim, 30 Christian rest traditional
  religions ? often violent
• Dry/poor north south has agriculture, oil,
  resources,
• Small, educated elite controls everything

• Largest external debt in Africa at 35 bill.

3
Political Development

• Precolonial Era (900bce-1851)
• the rise and fall of states kingdoms led to a
  rich advanced culture part of the Muslim trade
  route
• Portuguese opened the slave trade in early 1500s,
  followed by the French, British Dutch
• Colonial Era (1861-1960)
• Conquered by Britain, but ruled the area as 2
  separate colonies in north south allowing
  Muslims to remain
• 1939 divided into 3 separate provinces based on
  the crop they grew coincided with ethnic
  divisions as well
• National Congress of British West Africa (1920)
  began demanding independence, which finally came
  in 1960

4

• First Republic (1960-1966) federal parliamentary
  democracy fell due to ethnic religious
  divisions political parties were regional w/
  interparty fighting election violence civil
  unrest
• Military Govt I (1966-1979) coup detat
  murdered national regional political leaders,
  abolished the federal system established
  military regime that led to civil unrest, ethnic
  massacres, a 2nd military coup and a 2 year
  civil war between Nigeria the secessionists in
  Biafra. After the war, another coup took place,
  but then that guy was assassinated ? each leader
  talked about the return to civilian rule, but
  couldnt pull it off
• The Second Republic (1979-1983) US model of
  directly elected executive 3 branches worked
  on reunification, but suffered when the intl
  price of oil fell economy collapsed. Political
  parties broke down again along ethnic/regional
  lines began fighting

5

• Military Govt II (1983-1999) 4th military coup
  led to authoritarian govt he was ousted in 85
  in the 4th coup which put a Muslim in place who
  began restoring institutions for civilian rule
  (the Third Republic). When he didnt win the
  presidential election, he called the whole thing
  off, then was forced out of office. The next guy
  committed atrocious human rights violations
  promised civilian govt only if was guaranteed
  the presidency ? died of a heart attack (the
  coup from heaven) and the next general returned
  govt to the people
• The Fourth Republic (1999-present) ruled by
  centrist party who went after bureaucratic and
  limitary corruption/opposition. Community
  violence persists. Same guy won violent 2003
  elections, despite failing to unify Nigeria or
  build political institutions or economic
  strength, but lost in the 2007 elections. But it
  was the first civilian-to-civilian transfer of
  power in the countrys history.

6
Political Culture

• Indigenous political values vs. African/European
  political traditions negative legacies of the
  slave trade (corruption, violence, mistrust)
• A belief in democracy the people support
  democratic govt, but deal with military rule
  temporarily
• A multiethnic state adherence or loyalty to a
  region or tribe, a sense of exclusivity and
  discrimination against others? became a big
  problem after colonialism
• The importance of community priority to local
  community the paramount virtue leads to
  nepotism corruption
• The dominance of the state major advantages for
  those who control power

7
Political System The Constitution

• 4 constitutions since independence current one
  is long (320 Articles) and very detailed to cover
  as many issues as possible (even includes a
  glossary!)
• Key themes include
• national unity (see below)
• measures to prevent one region or ethnic group
  from dominating govt
• fundamental rights of citizenship (very explicit)
• Constitutional engineering a deliberate attempt
  to change political and social realities by
  establishing goals/rules in the Constitution
  so, for example

8

• We the people of the Federal Republic of Nigeria,
  having firmly and solemnly resolved, to live in
  unity and harmony as one indivisible and
  indissoluble sovereign nation under God,
  dedicated to the promotion of inter-African
  solidarity, world peace, international
  co-operation and understanding and to provide for
  a Constitution for the purpose of promoting the
  good government and welfare of all persons in our
  country, on the principles of freedom, equality
  and justice, and for the purpose of consolidating
  the unity of our people, do hereby make, enact
  and give to ourselves the following Constitution

9
The Executive The President

• Shifted from the Westminster model to the US
  model in 1963
• President elected by direct universal vote to a
  4-year term in office, renewable once
• Clear division of power among the 3 branches
  similar to US but personality of President is
  important for national unity leadership
• Vice-President must come from a different part of
  the country than the President
• Government of the Federation senior govt
  ministers chosen by the Pres. confirmed by
  Senate there must be at least one minister from
  each of Nigerias 36 states

President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua
Vice President Goodluck Jonathan
10
The Legislature National Assembly

• Senate

• House of Representatives

• Represents the states
• 109 members 3 each from the 36 states (each has
  3 districts) and 1 from Abuja
• Serve fixed, renewable 4 year terms - all come up
  for reelection at the same time
• President of Senate (chosen from membership) is
  3rd in line to the presidency

• Represents the people
• 360 members from districts of roughly equal
  population size
• Elected on a single-member, winner-take-all basis
• Serve fixed, renewable 4 year terms all elected
  at the same time as the Senate
• Speaker of the House chosen from membership

Both must meet for gt 6 months/year have equal
powers of legislation. All members must declare
assets/liabilities when they take office, and
members who are adjudged to be a lunatic or
declared to be of unsound mind can be elected.
11

• The Judiciary Supreme Court

• Subnational Government

• The only stable part of govt has existed
  through military govts
• Functions basically the same as the US
• 15 justices, nominated by president confirmed
  by the Senate or a judicial commission
• Oversees system of federal state courts of
  appeal and the controversial sharia courts which
  oversee Islamic law

• Source of civil war, violence ethnic
  hostilities dating back to colonization when
  Britain separated divided Nigeria
• Currently 36 states
• Each led by elected governor with 4-year
  renewable terms
• Unicameral House of Assembly must have 24-40
  members
• Traditional leaders still have a lot of local
  influence, particularly the caliphates in the
  Muslim states

12
The Military

• Heavily involved in politics will remain so
• In 47 years of independence, all but 16 years
  were under military rule
• The only institution with strength continuity,
  although each military dictator has used the
  power differently
• Over the years, the military created its own
  institutions to govern

13
The Electoral System

• Urban Nigerians more involved than rural, who are
  marginalized tend to value regional ethnic
  politics over national politics
• All elected officials from local councils to the
  presidency win office through winner-take-all
  vote in single member districts
• All officials serve the same 4 year renewable
  terms (but the president is limited to 2 terms)
• No primaries, candidates for presidency chosen by
  the senior party membership
• President must win at least ½ of the overall vote
  AND must also win at least 25 of the vote in at
  least 2/3 of the 36 states. If not, there is a
  runoff between the top two. If still no winner by
  these terms, the 3rd runoff requires only a
  simple majority to win
• CONSTANT charges of voter election fraud which
  often leads to violence, despite the Independent
  Election Commission

14
Political Parties

• Only exist when a civilian govt is in place (so
  not very often) none has lasted more than a few
  years
• Given the regional/ethnic differences, most
  parties cannot develop a national platform
• Most parties built on regional differences rather
  than ideology, which frequently leads to civil
  violence among parties
• Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
  established in 1998 for the Fourth Republic 3
  major parties
• Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) centrist,
  veteran politicians, largest in membership
• All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) moderately
  conservative , 2nd largest, backed by wealthy
  businessmen
• Alliance for Democracy (AD) moderately liberal,
  mostly regional (southwest) support, controversy
  within the party

15
Policies Policymaking

• 2007 elections mark the 1st successful civilian
  transfer of power, despite civil/party violence
  election fraud
• Changeable structures each new civilian govt
  brings changes (Westminster model?dictatorship?US
  model)
• Theory practice have little connection
• No consistency in practice, except centralization
  corruption
• Political elite rules, with little to no
  interaction with the people. Most are
  educated/ambitious individuals, influential
  clan/village leaders and/or senior military
  officers
• Patron-client relationships each person in the
  elite has a network of political supporters who
  are obligated to support him through the
  exchange of favors (like the US, Japan Mexico)
• No sense of national interest in decision-making

16
Economic Policy

• Britain left a fairly strong transportation
  infrastructure, self-sufficiency in food, oil
  natural gas reserves
• State-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.
  kept most in the country during the oil boom
  of the 1970s?steady growth in profits through the
  early 1980s, so the govt . developed a huge
  transformation program gained support from US,
  USSR Europe
• 1980s price of oil dropped at the same time
  foreign debts came due, the for the
  transformation project was wasted, agriculture
  fell apart/no self-sufficiency, inflation grew
  5x in 10 years external debt servicing eats up
  1/3 of export earnings
• the resource curse total reliance on oil for
  survival
• Other challenges decaying infrastructure, fuel
  shortages, huge black market, large-scale state
  ownership, poverty (2/3), institutionalized
  corruption, poor education health care

17
Foreign Policy

• Has no major external security threat
• Foreign policy driven by the need to promote
  economic development trade to overcome
  dependency/neocolonialism
• Dominating regional power in sub-Saharan Africa
  - many African leaders see Nigerian stability as
  crucial for African stability
• Economic Community of West African States
  (ECOWAS) created in 1975 to promote cooperation a
  la the EU, but Nigeria is the dominant power
  other members resist that
• Nigeria also gets worldwide attention
• Nigeria contributes to regional intl UN
  peacekeeping missions
• They have oil, particularly important as US-Arab
  relations get worse
• Ultimately they have the strong desire
  incredible potential to become an NIC, but
  internal divisions corrupt leaders prevent it
  from happening