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Barnes

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Barnes & Noble Inc. Sell Pitch. Michael Polark. BKS in our Portfolio ... Founder and Chairman Riggio recently completed three month (Aug-Oct) personal ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Barnes


1
Barnes Noble Inc. Sell Pitch
  • Michael Polark

2
BKS in our Portfolio
  • Own 200 shares purchased on February 20, 1996 for
    13.31 a share.
  • One of our three oldest holdings
  • Closed Friday at 37.06
  • Valued Friday at 7,412
  • If we sell 200 shares we net a profit of 4,750
    or a 178 gain.

3
Who is BKS?
  • Headquarters in NYC
  • Owns 801 bookstores in 50 states making it the
    number 1 domestic bookseller
  • Also operates recently overhauled online web
    store that has exceeded expectations since being
    completed
  • Developing a publishing program giving BKS rights
    to book titles not found anywhere else but at
    their stores. Bought Sparknotes.com (2001) and
    Sterling Publishing (2003) to expand publishing
    exposure.

4
Since we Bought it
5
Why we should sell
  • The weak consumer confidence heading into the
    holiday season
  • Small internal growth
  • External growth was looking promising earlier in
    the year, now seems to be on hold
  • Will BKS online web store be able to compete with
    Amazon?
  • In the future, how practical are bookstores when
    books will possibly be available completely
    online?

6
Holiday season
  • Consumer confidence low how will consumer
    spending play out during the 4th quarter?
  • BKS earns approx. 90 of revenue during holiday
    season
  • Recent News BKS raises 4th quarter outlook after
    a positive 3rd quarter and claims it will be
    immune to possibly low consumer spending
  • BUT will BKS success be able to stand out and
    thrive amongst overall low retail results in the
    short term?

7
Small internal growth
  • Revenue growth predicted for 2007 between 2 to
    4. Sales up to 4.6B from 4.5B in 06.
  • Earnings forecast of 1.87 per share in 2007 down
    from 2.17 per share in 06.
  • Five year EPS growth is 10 compared to 12.69
    for the broad SP 500.

8
External growth?
  • Completely domestic companyno plans at ALL for
    international expansion
  • Newly revamped website is BKS attempt at
    international businesscan it compete with the
    likes of Amazon?
  • Largest competitor Borders has international
    stores in the UK and Ireland as well as an
    Asia-Pacific chain

9
Leonard Riggio (Chairman)
  • Founder and Chairman Riggio recently completed
    three month (Aug-Oct) personal buying spree of
    620K shares, increasing his personal stake in the
    company to 24.
  • Can be an indicator of rosier forecasts to come
    (raised fourth Q outlook)
  • BUT analysts had been anticipating a possible MA
    announcement with Borders
  • Buying spree eliminates this possibility in the
    near future because spree would be viewed as
    insider trading

10
Future of Books
  • Amazons Jeff Bezos has developed the Kindle, a
    new E-Reader that can store books (bought
    through the website) and get daily newspaper
    editions as well as being able to connect to the
    internet (featured in Newsweek)
  • Googles continuing attempt to archive thousands
    of classic titles
  • Are physical books practical in the technological
    age?
  • Can BKS keep up with its competitors and future
    innovations?

11

12
Summary
  • Old holding, large gain, time to LOCK IN
  • Entering uncertain consumer season
  • No plan for international growth, MA prospects
    squashed by buying spree
  • What is the future of books?
  • Time to use this cash to invest in smaller-cap,
    larger growth stocks
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