Science

1
Science Engineering Indicators 2006
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics
Briefing to PCAST March 28, 2006 National
Science Foundation Division of Science Resources
Statistics www.nsf.gov/statistics/
Rolf Lehming rlehming_at_nsf.gov
2
Major international ST trends and implications
for the United States
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Broad expansion of ST capabilities is underway
  in many countriesboth policy- and market-driven.
• Growth by many measures of ST activity is
  ubiquitous in much of the world
• but is nowhere as rapid as in Asia outside of
  Japan.
• Consequently, the European and Japanese shares
  of world totals are eroding.
• The United States is generally maintaining its
  position
• but it is facing both domestic and external
  challenges.

3
International RD trends
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• RD expenditures are increasing robustly around
  the world, driven by both governments and
  industry.

4
Internationalization of RD
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Firms cross-border RD investments are on the
  increase

5
U.S. overseas RD
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• U.S. multinationals are shifting their growing
  overseas investments to Asia.

6
Rapid rise in Chinese RD
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• The rapid rise of Chinas RD expenditures is
  unprecedented for any country in recent memory,
  in part reflecting RD performed by
  foreign-owned, China-based firms.

7
High technology markets
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• U.S. manufacturing has shifted swiftly towards
  high technology, resulting in a strong world
  market position, while Europe and Japan are
  losing market share.

8
High technology exports
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• High technology exports are expanding, but
  European, Japanese, and U.S. export shares are
  shrinking as those of China and other Asian
  exporters are rising.

9
High technology trade balance
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• The U.S. trade balance for both high technology
  industries and goods has turned negative.

10
Academic scientific research
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Chinese academic research has grown robustly,
  with double-digit annual growth rates since 1999,
  but remained at only about 10 of the national
  total.

11
ST expertise and scientific publishing
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Outside of Japan, Asian nations still modest
  international publishing and patenting activities
  are on accelerating upward trajectories.

12
International SE labor forces
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• International SE labor force data can only be
  approximated.

13
International SE degree production
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• International degree production is rising and
  focused on natural sciences and engineering,
  especially in Europe and Asia.

14
International SE doctorate degrees
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• The bulk of SE doctorates have been granted
  outside the United States

15
International mobility
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Large numbers of highly educated persons live
  outside their home countries

16
SE jobs in the United States
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• SE jobs have grown faster than U.S. degree
  production, but foreign-born scientists and
  engineers have filled the gap.

17
Foreign-born in U.S. SE
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• As Asian countries develop their ST
  infrastructures, fewer of their scientists and
  engineerscurrently 2/3 of foreign SE doctorate
  holdersmay come to or stay in the U.S.

18
Student and high-skill visas
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• The number of U.S.-issued foreign student visas
  remains 25 below its pre- 9/11 peak, reflecting
  lower applications

19
Retirements
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• A large number of retirements from the U.S. SE
  labor force is impending

20
Demographic trends pose challenges
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Yet continuing demographic changes pose
  challenges to raising domestic SE degree output

21
International K-12 performance
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• The performance of U.S. students in K-12 may
  raise concern

22
U.S. academic RD funds
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Since 1990, inflation-adjusted academic RD
  expenditures have almost doubled, driven by
  federal and institution funds

23
Researcher support
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Strongly rising government funding reaches
  proportionately fewer of a growing number of
  researchers

24
Overall U.S. RD investment
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• Total U.S. RD investment has rebounded
  robustly after declining in 2002

25
U.S. venture capital trends
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• But U.S. venture capital, seedbed of startup
  companies, has grown risk-averse

26
Conclusion
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• The globalization of RD, science and
  technology, and SE labor markets continues as
  countries seek competitive advantage and as RD
  spending, business investment, people and
  employers cross borders.
• Human capital is a key ingredient in these
  developments. Three factors affecting the size of
  the U.S. SE labor force are
• Retirements,
• SE degree production, and
• immigration.

27
Conclusion, continued
National Science Foundation
Division of Science Resources Statistics

• A prolonged slowdown in the growth of the U.S.
  SE workforce would produce wage growth
  adjustments whose net effects in a mobile and
  integrated ST world are currently hard to
  assess.
• Better data, metrics, and models are needed to
  capture the evolving dynamics of international
  SE labor markets and other aspects of ST
  systems.