Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India: Implications to Climate Change

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Greenhouse Gas Emissions in India Implications
to Climate Change
Siv Balachandran Shekhar Chandra
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Trends of Major Greenhouse Gases
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Emission Trends 10 Nations
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Global Emissions
Sources UNFCC Report
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India NAAQS
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Multi-gas Emission Trends
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Total CO2 Emissions From India Relative Trends
Energy Department projects even more pronounced
trends in coming years (11th fifth year plan,
2007-2011)
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Emissions in India
Sources Earth Trends and Country Profiles
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India Energy Consumption
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CO2 Emissions From Different Fuel Type
Source Department of Energy, GoI
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Future Growth in Different Sources Due to
Increasing Needs
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Future Economic Scenarios

• IPCC (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)
  SRES Framework
• A Centralization
• B Decentralization
• 1 High integration with global markets
• 2 Low integration with global markets

Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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Emissions Projections

• National level top-down macro-economic models
• SGM/ERB
• National level bottom-up energy system models
• MARKAL with AIM, ANSWER-MARKAL
• Local level bottom-up models

Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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Future Growth Trends
Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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CO2 Emission Scenario

• IA1 lt IA2
• Better technology leads to greater efficiency

Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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CH4 Emission Scenario
Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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N2O Emission Scenario
Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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Emission Trends for IA2
Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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100 Year CO2 Trends

• All scenarios show a rising trend
• Improved energy efficiency only goes so far

Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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Stabilization Mechanisms

• 1990s - 111 M Tons mitigation
• Population growth stabilization
• Improved roadway/transit networks
• Alternative fuels
• Incentives for sustainable technology
• Conservation/recycling
• Land conservation/re-forestation

Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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Energy Consumption

• Coal based power generation and transportation
• What options are available for stabilizing CO2
  emissions from these sources?

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CO2 Stabilization Scenario
Source Shukla, Current Science, V90, 3
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Unresolved Questions

• How realistic are renewable energy goals?
• Biomass - food vs. fuel?
• Nuclear feasibility - political and technical?
• Built-in efficiencies?

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Summary

• Role of developing nations in GHG emissions
  continues to be important
• Development versus sustainability
• Multi-faceted solutions