Thomas Dietz

1
Planning for Human Dimensions Research4 December
2002

• Thomas Dietz
• Environmental Science and Policy
• George Mason University
• tdietzvt_at_aol.com

2
Anticipated Climate Change

• High probability that 21st century climate will
  be substantially different from the climate of
  the 20th century. Some of the change may be
  non-linear, abrupt.
• Changes will have substantial impact on things
  that people care about. Good decision making
  will have to take account of these changes.
• Thus good decisions will require analysis of
• Impacts, including costs, benefits and risks
• Sources of resilience and vulnerability
• How these will be distributed across regions,
  sectors, and groups

3
Anthropogenic Climate Change and Decision Making

• The preponderance of evidence suggests that
• much of anticipated climate change is
  anthropogenic.
• human activities strongly influence the C, N and
  H20 cycles.
• Good decisions will require
• Analysis of the human drivers of environmental
  change.
• Good decisions will also require systematic
  scientific analysis of
• Decision making under uncertainty
• Methods for making information useful
• Tools for effective public involvement

4
The Strategic Plan

• This is a major step forward in articulating the
  human dimensions component of the Global Change
  Research Program.
• It reflects, in large measure, the Pathways
  priorities.
• However, a few Pathways priorities are missing,
  and should be included
• Understanding the social determinants of
  environmentally significant consumption
• Assessing social and environmental surprises
• Understanding institutions for managing global
  change

5
The Pathways Priorities

• Understanding the social determinants of
  environmentally significant consumption
• Understanding the sources and processes of
  technological change
• Making climate change assessments and predictions
  regionally relevant
• Assessing social and environmental surprises
• Understanding land use/cover dynamics and human
  migration

• Understanding institutions for managing global
  change
• Improving methods for decision making about
  global change
• Improving the integration of human dimensions
  research with other global change research
• Improving geographic links to existing social,
  economic and health data
• On the web at www.nap.edu

6
Overall IssuesResearch Integration

• Chapter 8Land Use/ Land Cover Change does the
  best integration.
• Chapter 7-Water Cycle notes the issues but shows
  a pattern that is worse in other chapters.
• In most chapters, human dimensions are noted in
  the beginning but are more or less absent from
  discussions of State of Knowledge,
  Illustrative Research Questions, Research
  Needs, and Products and Payoffs.
• Thus better integration is needed so these are
  not missed when resources are allocated.

7
Overall IssuesObservational Priorities

• Chapter 12 lists no observational priorities
  related to human dimensions.
• Without an adequate database on socioeconomic and
  institutional variables it is impossible
• to develop credible models or
• to conduct the analyses required to provide
  decision support to policy
• Pathways priority
• Improving geographic links to existing social,
  economic and health data
• Serious effort on socio-economic data is essential

8
Overall IssuesDecision Support

• For the efforts described in Chapters 4 and 12,
  to be effective, they must be grounded in the
  scientific understanding of
• decision making under uncertainty and use of
  information by
• individuals,
• households,
• firms,
• governments and
• other organizations,
• effective methods for stakeholder participation,
  etc.
• These research issues are discussed in
• National Academy of Science/ National Research
  Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter.
  Washington, D.C. National Academy Press.

9
Overall IssuesDecision Support

• For the efforts described in Chapters 4 and 12,
  to be effective, must be grounded in the
  scientific understanding of
• decision making under uncertainty and use of
  information by
• individuals,
• households,
• firms,
• governments and
• other organizations,
• effective methods for stakeholder participation,
  etc.
• These research issues are discussed in
• National Academy of Science/ National Research
  Council. 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter.
  Washington, D.C. National Academy Press.

10
Chapter 11

• Is a major step forward in articulating the human
  dimensions component of the Global Change
  Research Program.
• Reflects, in large measure, the Pathways
  priorities.
• However, a few Pathways priorities are missing,
  and should be included
• Understanding the social determinants of
  environmentally significant consumption
• Assessing social and environmental surprises
• Understanding institutions for managing global
  change
• There is also, in this draft, a disconnect
  between the Research Needs identified for
  Question 1 and the question itself and the
  Illustrative Research Questions
• Distributional issues need strong emphasis