Quo vadis European Union

1
Quo vadis European Union?

• Michael Emerson
• Senior Research Fellow, CEPS, Brussels
• Confederation of Icelandic Employers
• Reykjavik, 31 January 2008

2
What values for Europe?

• The Ten Commandments of the European Union
• Thou shalt be truly democratic and respectful of
  human rights and the rule of law.
• Thou shalt guarantee the four freedoms of
  movement (goods, services, capital, labour).
• Thou shalt provide for social cohesion between
  people, regions and states.
• Thou shalt ensure sustainable economic
  development for the benefit of future
  generations.
• Thou shalt reject nationalism and favour the
  multiple identity of citizens.
• Thou shalt assure federative multi-tier
  governance.
• Thou shalt assure secular governance and favour
  multi-cultural pluralism in society.
• Thou shalt promote multilateral order in
  international affairs.
• Thou shalt abstain from threatening or using
  force against others without just cause.
• Thou shalt be open, inclusive and integrative
  towards neighbours that adhere to the above.

3
Lisbon Treaty (1)

• Constitution, more or less in substance, but
  sadly lacking in textual transparency
• 2 years wasted because of Chiracs poor political
  tactics. France is not trained to use referenda
  like Switzerland. People voted for many unrelated
  reasons
• Only advantage, allowed UK to escape having a
  referendum

4
Lisbon Treaty (2)

• Institutions basic steps
• new EU President, 2 ½ years, renewable once
• High Representative chairs foreign ministers
  council vice-president of Commission
• Commissioners limited to 2/3rd number of member
  states
• European parliament limited to 751 members

5
Lisbon Treaty (3)

• Council
• Summits chaired by permanent President
• Foreign ministers chaired by High Rep
• Eurozone finance ministers, 2 year president ad
  personam
• Other Councils of Ministers (agriculture,
  transport, energy etc) retain six-monthly
  rotating presidency
• Thus major erosion of rotating presidency, but
  messy situation for coordination. NB COREPER (EU
  ambassadors) remains presided by rotation.

6
Lisbon Treaty (4)

• Will new Council Presidency rival and dominate
  the Commission President or, will he ally with
  him and rely on him?
• Outcome open, may depend on personalities

7
Lisbon Treaty (5)

• High Representative, double-hatted
• Potentially hugely powerful position, but will
  need deputies
• Should produce more joined-up foreign policy
• Will entail diplomatic service, with Commission
  Delegations becoming EU delegations

8
Lisbon Treaty (6)

• Legislative procedures
• New Qualified Majority Vote (QMV) rules
• 55 of member states
• 65 of population
• blocking minority needs 4 member states
• Dominant factor likely to be the 65 population
• This lowers the threshold for majority decisions
  (i.e. makes achieving majorities easier)

9
Lisbon Treaty (7)

• Legislative procedures (cont.)
• Also field for QMV expanded to include 21 new
  legal areas and 23 existing legal areas currently
  under unanimity
• Especially important for Freedom, Security and
  Justice area, with old 3rd pillar merged with 1st
  pillar
• Co-decision procedures put European Parliament
  and Council on equal footing in legislative
  process i.e. enhanced powers for Parliament

10
Lisbon process

• Experiment at comprehensive economic reform at EU
  member state level, with elaborate benchmarking
• one of the factors eroding the original EEA
  concept
• Lisbon process not brilliantly successful, but
  at least it moves discourse and policy planning
  processes in a coherent direction

11
Eurozone and the macroeconomic crisis

• Thank God for euro, since a 27-country European
  monetary system would have been chaotic
• Credit/banking crisis highlights major issues for
  bank supervision, regulation and lender of last
  resort issues
• ECBs massive intervention in recent weeks
  automatic lender of first resort on huge scale
• Debate gets underway, led by Padoa Schioppa

12
Schengen, migration, asylum nexus

• Initially a freedom of movement within policy
• Now becomes a multiple, integrated set of
  policies, with accent on external security
  threats complex set of legislative and
  operational (Frontex agency) actions, linkages
  to broad foreign and security policy, and to
  domestic societal issues regarding Mulsim
  minorities

13
Energy climate change nexus

• Currently no 1 priority for Barroso Commission.
  Huge challenges to dominate policy debate for
  years
• Domestic competition policy on unbundling, fierce
  fight between liberal and state champions (F, D)
• Russian tsunami of pipeline network linkages
  (North and now South Stream)
• Domestic C02 emission renewables targets
  intra-member state bargaining
• International negotiations over post-Kyoto regime
• Commission wont get all it wants, but the agenda
  will be deep

14
Enlargement (1)

• EU 25 and now 27 has adapted and continued to
  function without feared gridlock
• New member states fit in reasonably well, and
  Polish maverick case disciplined democratically
  (i.e. difficult government thrown out)
• However there are concerns over relapse of
  political discipline with the loss of the
  leverage over new member states once in (e.g.
  over anti-corruption policies)

15
Enlargement (2)

• Croatia 2010 ?
• Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro,
  Kosovo. Commitments repeated, but long way off,
  and a big crisis threatens over Kosovo (see
  next)
• Turkey ? Negotiations continue under cloud of
  ambiguity. Commission tries to progress, with
  considerable support France Austria most
  strong opponents
• Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia ?? Aspirations get no
  encourgament from institutions, but Ukraine has
  supporters
• Micro states raise questions San Marino,
  Andorra
• EU of around 35 by 2030???

16
Enlargement (3)

• Bad news Kosovo already a major threat to
  European order
• Both within Balkans with very bad scenarios
  evident Presidential election this weekend
  between Tadic and Nikolic leading then to Kosovo
  declaring independence, with EU countries
  recognising this in stages contagion risks,
  Mitrovitsa, Macedonia, Bosnia
• And between EU/US and Russia with Russia
  aggressively stirring up trouble in EU space,
  under hypocritical pretext of upholding the rule
  of law

17
Enlargement (4)

• Good news Sarkozy about to change the blockage
  put into the French constitution by Chirac
• Chiracs amendment was to make every future
  enlargement after Croatia subject to referendum
• Sarkozy will make this subject to ratification by
  either parliament or referendum, with the
  President to choose which

18
Quid EEA?

• Very pertinent analysis of EEA Joint
  Parliamentary Committee of November 2007
• Stresses structural changes in EU since EEA
  agreement of 1992
• Enlargement 12 to 27 Euro financial system
  foreign and security policy neighbourhood policy
  extending the single market integration of
  justice and home affairs increased role of
  European Parliament
• Extended internal market activity, increasing
  grey areas of questionable applicability under
  EEA agreement, including big environment/climate
  change policies, and increasing soft law with
  action plans that are not legally binding and
  benchmarked coordination under Lisbon process
• Makes EEA look increasingly obsolete less (and
  increasingly uncertain) coverage of EU affairs
  less institutional scope increasing cost of
  financial contributions.

19
European Neighbourhood Policy (1)

• Originally for new Eastern neighbours (Ukraine,
  Moldova, Belarus)
• Rapidly extended to the Caucasus and
  Mediterranean
• A policy that tries to be Europeanisation
  light, following the model of accession
  negotiations, but without the incentive of full
  membership or the obligations

20
European Neighbourhood Policy (2)

• But Ukraine especially insists on membership
  ambitions which is supported by some (Sw, Pl,
  UK), but opposed by others (F)
• Germany wanted in 2007 a stronger Ostpolitik
• And now Sarkozy wants a (so-far misconceived and
  divisive) Union of the Mediterranean
• So this area of policy is under tension

21
Russia

• Mounting and serious tensions
• 2006-7 years of significant and multiple
  irritations Estonian monument, Lithuania oil
  supplies, Polish meat, Ukr gas war, rejection of
  Energy Charter transit Protocol, Georgian and
  Moldovan wine blockades, Litvinenko murder.
• Resulting blockage of opening of negotiations for
  Strategic Partnership Treaty at Samara in June
  2007
• 2008 now prospect for major confrontation over
  vital interests, namely Kosovo affair where
  Russia has primed Serbia into a wrecking position
  (last time Russia supported Serbia it led to WWI)
• What to do? Containment alliance with new US
  administration??

22
Norms for multi-polar system?

• World affairs now a 5 or 6 player game (EU, US,
  Rus, China, India, Brazil)
• EU instinctively wants a rule based international
  system
• But what becomes the system with crude
  realpolitik Russia, and big unknowns from China
  (first experiences in Africa not promising)

23
Overall

• EU recovered from the constitution/referendum
  crisis much better than many feared
• Decision-making processes reasonably well
  advanced to handle complex policy challenges
• EU has survived huge enlargement to 27 without
  gridlock
• Next big challenges
• Short-term survive the Kosovo crisis
• Medium/long-term
• Beef up foreign and security policy for the
  multi-polar world
• Get results on the energy security/climate fronts