EU Accession Referendums in Central

1
EU Accession Referendums in Central Eastern
Europe
Mikolaj Czesnik Institute of Political Studies,
Polish Academy of Sciences
FP6 CivicActive
Introduction This poster is designed to show the
results of the EU accession referendums, which
were surely one of the most important events in
the modern history of Central and Eastern
European countries. We focus on referendum
results and voter turnout. On the basis of the
data presented we argue that Central and Eastern
European citizenries expressed in this way their
strong support for the idea of European
integration. However, referendum results could
have been much more significant had voter turnout
been higher (and had the abstainers voted for
integration and enlargement, not against).
Graph 1. Results of the EU Accession Referenda in
Central and Eastern Europe.
Results It is often argued that the 2003
referendums were a huge victory for the European
idea and the European integration project.
Indeed, the data presented in Graph 1 seem to
confirm this notion. The graph summarizes the
results of referendums in 8 post-communist
countries the new members that entered EU on
the 1st May 2004. As can be seen in all the
countries, opponents of the integration were in
minority, and the YES camps everywhere won by a
huge margin (in Estonia, where the gap was
smallest, there were twice as many supporters of
the integration as opponents). However, graph 1
does not include very important information
data on voter turnout. These details are provided
by Graph 2. Electorates in all countries are
split into 3 groups YES-voters, NO-voters and
abstainers. This analysis sheds new light on the
referendum results. In 6 out of 8 countries
YES-voters constitute only a minority of the
electorate more than 50 of the citizens
eligible to vote either abstained or voted
against EU enlargement. Can these 2 groups be
interpreted in the same manner? Does non-voting
in EU accession referendums mean opposing the
idea of EU enlargement and integration? As
studies on voter turnout in Central and Eastern
Europe suggest there are other protest and
dissatisfaction motivations of electoral
abstention in the region (Graph 3 shows the
dynamics of voter turnout in the region). Thus
we should not treat abstainers as opponents of EU
accession. Graph 3. Voter turnout in Central and
Eastern Europe.
Graph 2. Results of the EU Accession Referenda in
Central and Eastern Europe (voter turnout
included).
Conclusion The results of the 2003 referendums,
though less optimistic if voter turnout data is
accounted for, should not worry proponents and
constructors of the European Union. The idea of
European integration was then widely supported
among Central and Eastern Europe citizenries,
though the number of all citizens eligible to
vote, who directly supported accession was not
great (varying from 38 in Hungary to 57 in
Lithuania). However, it was due to other factors
than fear of European Union and doubts about a
common European future. In a nutshell, in Central
and Eastern Europe voter abstention for several
reasons has been a widespread phenomenon. Thus,
non-voting here cannot be automatically defined
as an indication of protest, dissatisfaction or
boycott of the EU.