The OECD/CERI foresight study on higher education: impact on policy and decision-making

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The OECD/CERI foresight study on higher
education impact on policy and decision-making
Joint Research Centers Future-Oriented
Technology Analysis Impacts on policy and
decision making Seville - 28-29 September 2006

• Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin
• Analyst
• OECD
• Centre for Educational Research and Innovation

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Outline of my presentation

• OECD/CERI project on the future of higher
  education
• Purpose
• Methodology
• What impact on policy and decision-making?

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Purpose of the project

• Help policymakers and stakeholders make strategic
  choices regarding the future
• Develop a set of long-term scenarios to engage
  stakeholders in discussion about the future
• Give common tools and information to think about
  the future (NOT predicting the future)
• Policy-oriented and international

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Related OECD work on tertiary education

• Internationalisation and trade in higher
  education (2002-2007)
• Quality and recognition in higher education
  (2002-05)
• E-learning in tertiary education (2004-05)
• OECD thematic review on tertiary education
  (2004-2008)
• 22 countries
• Based on country reports and national review
  visits
• Different time horizon, state of the art, policy
  recommendations

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Project methodology
Analytical and thematic study of major trends
Development of Scenarios
Dialogue with stakeholders and experts
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Analytical and thematic study

• Technology
• E-learning in tertiary education,
  Cyber-infrastructures, gaming education, open
  culture
• Demographic change
• General trends in society (ageing, migrations,
  development of demographic giants, etc.), change
  in the number and type of students, staff
  demographics
• Globalisation, market forces and financing
• Internationalisation and trade in higher
  education, future of the private sector,
  international Quality Assurance, future of
  financing, etc.
• University research
• Concentration of research, competition with
  business RD, internationalisation, rise of
  private funding, etc.
• Changing labour market demand higher education

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Analytical and thematic study

• Expert meetings with participants from different
  backgrounds and countries
• Policy makers and politicians (former Ministers)
• Academics
• Stakeholders (students, teacher unions, trade
  unions, business representatives, university
  associations)
• Longitudinal data collection
• Qualitative and quantitative analysis

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Building scenarios an incremental process
Analysis
Technology
Demography
Globalisation Market
Research
Labour market demand
1st public set
2nd public set
Feedback from presentations consultation
Ideas / Test
Scenario building exercises
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Current set of 4 scenarios

• Open networking
• Serving local communities
• New public responsibility
• Higher education, Inc.

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Next steps

• Completing the analytical work
• Two books planned for early 2007 on demography
  and technology
• More expert meetings and reports to com
• Final set of scenarios (improved or new) (early
  2008)

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What kinds of scenarios have an impact?

• A set that triggers a good discussion and a
  lasting impression
• Challenging but with visibly relevant
• on substance and implications of the scenarios,
  not on methodology
• included strong criticism
• In practice
• Importance of presentation and wording
• Importance of trends analysis and analytical work
• Find the right balance between radicality and
  projections

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Challenges

• Visibility by target audience(s)
• Willingness of people to engage in discussion
  ( Callicles  syndrom)
• Interest several audiences from 30 different
  countries
• Know whether, how and by whom the futures work is
  used
• Have people create their own scenarios (more
  relevant to their specific context)

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A few outcomes of the project so far

• Process generates a lot of discussion, including
  at senior policy-making level
• Presentation and discussion at the Forum of the
  latest OECD Ministerial
• Public reactions of stakeholders (EI ESIB) and
  use by other stakeholders
• Use in academic settings
• Press articles

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Thank you

• Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin_at_oecd.org