Introduction to Foresight for Policy and DecisionMaking

1
Introduction to Foresight for Policy- and
Decision-Making Retreat on Technology Foresight
for High-level Decision Makers Seville, 14-15
October 2008 Professor Ron Johnston Australian
Centre for Innovation, Sydney Visiting
Scientist, European Commission JRC IPTS
2
Structure of this Presentation

• what is it?
• what are the benefits?
• what it can do for policy?
• when it is applied?
• what it does look at?

3
NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access
the slide-set place, date and event name text box
beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master. 1.2.
Do not change the size nor the position of that
text box. 1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the
place (Place), the date (dd Month YYYY) and
the event name (Event Name) with your own
texts. 1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you
own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 1.5. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 1.6. Keep the original
font colour (white). 1.7. Keep the original font
body size (7 pt) and the text on one single
line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on
the banners lower right-hand side is
automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1.
Duplicate the first slide as needed. 3.2. Do not
change the size nor the position of the slides
text box. 3.3. Try not to place more text on each
slide than will fit in the given text box. 3.4.
Replace the mock-up heading text (Joint Research
Centre (JRC)) with your own text heading. 3.5.
Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in
Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one
of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 3.6. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 3.7. Keep the original
font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). 3.8. Keep the
original font body size (28 pt) and the heading
on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the
font body size if needed. 3.9. Replace the
mock-up text (The European Commissions
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation))
with your own text. 3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book
Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep
the original typeface Arial. 3.11. Keep the
original flush-left justification. 3.12. Keep
the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use
black if you need a second colour. 3.13. Keep
the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it
if unavoidable. 3.14. Replace the EU-27 map
mock-up illustration with your own
illustration(s). 3.13. Try to keep your
illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned
with the main text box whenever possible.

• Foresight - what is it?
• Foresight is a systematic, participatory,
  future-intelligence-gathering and
  medium-to-long-term vision-building process aimed
  at present-day decisions and mobilising joint
  actions

4
Locating Foresight among Future-oriented
Activities

• Prophecy
• Visionary thinking (e.g. consultancy services)
• Forecast (extrapolation, prediction for various
  purposes)
• Futures studies (for academic purposes)
• Strategic planning (various levels)
• Scenario planning
• Indicative national planning (Japan, France)
• Prospective analyses (for academic or business
  purposes)
• Critical/ key technologies
• Foresight (individual) vs. Foresight programmes

5
Differentiating Foresight

• Action-oriented vs. contemplative (passive)
• Participatory vs. non-participatory
• Alternative futures vs. a single future state
• Probable, possible and preferred futures

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citizens
researchers
policy makers
company managers
Stakeholders
unions
associations
NGOs
consumers
How things may develop?
debating the Future
How do we get there?
Where do we want to go?
How can we prepare?
Where are we now?
in a structured way
panels
surveys
scenarios
roadmaps
7
NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access
the slide-set place, date and event name text box
beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master. 1.2.
Do not change the size nor the position of that
text box. 1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the
place (Place), the date (dd Month YYYY) and
the event name (Event Name) with your own
texts. 1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you
own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 1.5. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 1.6. Keep the original
font colour (white). 1.7. Keep the original font
body size (7 pt) and the text on one single
line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on
the banners lower right-hand side is
automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1.
Duplicate the first slide as needed. 3.2. Do not
change the size nor the position of the slides
text box. 3.3. Try not to place more text on each
slide than will fit in the given text box. 3.4.
Replace the mock-up heading text (Joint Research
Centre (JRC)) with your own text heading. 3.5.
Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in
Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one
of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 3.6. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 3.7. Keep the original
font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). 3.8. Keep the
original font body size (28 pt) and the heading
on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the
font body size if needed. 3.9. Replace the
mock-up text (The European Commissions
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation))
with your own text. 3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book
Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep
the original typeface Arial. 3.11. Keep the
original flush-left justification. 3.12. Keep
the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use
black if you need a second colour. 3.13. Keep
the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it
if unavoidable. 3.14. Replace the EU-27 map
mock-up illustration with your own
illustration(s). 3.13. Try to keep your
illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned
with the main text box whenever possible.
Examples Biofuels - Can they make a
significant contribution to overcoming the
looming challenges of peak oil? What are the
consequences for food and fibre availability and
price? What are the implications for water demand
and supply? Where will production, and
consumption, be concentrated? What international
agreements could oversee the operation of a
biofuels industry? European manufacturing -
Will there be production in Europe in 2020, or
will it all have been outsourced to China? What
if people start fabricating their own products?
What if nanotechnology allows for manufacturing
atom by atom? Will factories be run without
people? How will we organise manufacturing if
everybody needs to take care of children or
elderly half of their time? What if zero waste
becomes mandatory? What kind of research do we
need now to be prepared?
8
NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access
the slide-set place, date and event name text box
beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master. 1.2.
Do not change the size nor the position of that
text box. 1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the
place (Place), the date (dd Month YYYY) and
the event name (Event Name) with your own
texts. 1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you
own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 1.5. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 1.6. Keep the original
font colour (white). 1.7. Keep the original font
body size (7 pt) and the text on one single
line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on
the banners lower right-hand side is
automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1.
Duplicate the first slide as needed. 3.2. Do not
change the size nor the position of the slides
text box. 3.3. Try not to place more text on each
slide than will fit in the given text box. 3.4.
Replace the mock-up heading text (Joint Research
Centre (JRC)) with your own text heading. 3.5.
Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in
Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one
of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 3.6. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 3.7. Keep the original
font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). 3.8. Keep the
original font body size (28 pt) and the heading
on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the
font body size if needed. 3.9. Replace the
mock-up text (The European Commissions
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation))
with your own text. 3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book
Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep
the original typeface Arial. 3.11. Keep the
original flush-left justification. 3.12. Keep
the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use
black if you need a second colour. 3.13. Keep
the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it
if unavoidable. 3.14. Replace the EU-27 map
mock-up illustration with your own
illustration(s). 3.13. Try to keep your
illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned
with the main text box whenever possible.

• Many other examples
• Irrigated agriculture
• Implications of ageing
• Infectious diseases
• Political change
• Appropriate governance
• Water availability
• Antarctic policy
• Refugee impacts
• Laws of the sea
• Human augmentation

9
NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access
the slide-set place, date and event name text box
beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master. 1.2.
Do not change the size nor the position of that
text box. 1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the
place (Place), the date (dd Month YYYY) and
the event name (Event Name) with your own
texts. 1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you
own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 1.5. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 1.6. Keep the original
font colour (white). 1.7. Keep the original font
body size (7 pt) and the text on one single
line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on
the banners lower right-hand side is
automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1.
Duplicate the first slide as needed. 3.2. Do not
change the size nor the position of the slides
text box. 3.3. Try not to place more text on each
slide than will fit in the given text box. 3.4.
Replace the mock-up heading text (Joint Research
Centre (JRC)) with your own text heading. 3.5.
Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in
Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one
of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 3.6. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 3.7. Keep the original
font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). 3.8. Keep the
original font body size (28 pt) and the heading
on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the
font body size if needed. 3.9. Replace the
mock-up text (The European Commissions
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation))
with your own text. 3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book
Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep
the original typeface Arial. 3.11. Keep the
original flush-left justification. 3.12. Keep
the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use
black if you need a second colour. 3.13. Keep
the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it
if unavoidable. 3.14. Replace the EU-27 map
mock-up illustration with your own
illustration(s). 3.13. Try to keep your
illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned
with the main text box whenever possible.

Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
changes
produces
Insights About the future
Relations With respect to future
Attitudes Towards the future

• Long term thinking
• Awareness of challenges
• Foresight learning culture

• Dynamics of change
• New perspectives
• Future risks opportunities
• Strategic options
• System capabilities
• Stakeholders views

• Networks
• Linkages
• Common ground
• Shared perspectives
• Joint visions

Being better prepared for the future
10
NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access
the slide-set place, date and event name text box
beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master. 1.2.
Do not change the size nor the position of that
text box. 1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the
place (Place), the date (dd Month YYYY) and
the event name (Event Name) with your own
texts. 1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you
own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 1.5. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 1.6. Keep the original
font colour (white). 1.7. Keep the original font
body size (7 pt) and the text on one single
line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on
the banners lower right-hand side is
automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1.
Duplicate the first slide as needed. 3.2. Do not
change the size nor the position of the slides
text box. 3.3. Try not to place more text on each
slide than will fit in the given text box. 3.4.
Replace the mock-up heading text (Joint Research
Centre (JRC)) with your own text heading. 3.5.
Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in
Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one
of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 3.6. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 3.7. Keep the original
font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). 3.8. Keep the
original font body size (28 pt) and the heading
on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the
font body size if needed. 3.9. Replace the
mock-up text (The European Commissions
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation))
with your own text. 3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book
Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep
the original typeface Arial. 3.11. Keep the
original flush-left justification. 3.12. Keep
the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use
black if you need a second colour. 3.13. Keep
the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it
if unavoidable. 3.14. Replace the EU-27 map
mock-up illustration with your own
illustration(s). 3.13. Try to keep your
illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned
with the main text box whenever possible.
Foresight Policy Benefits

Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future
changes
produces
Insights About the future
Relations With respect to future
Attitudes Towards the future
Strategic intelligence as a base for better
decisions and strategies
Changes in society for better policy
implementation
Changes in policy process for better decision
making
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Foresight policy benefits
Policy
Better decision making
Better decisions
Insights
Foresight Dialogue
Actors
Actors
Better implementation due to better responsiveness
of actors
Actors
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FORESIGHT
Legitimacy, transparency
New policy configurations
Understanding of changes
Responsiveness of the system
Visions
Policy options
New ideas
Agenda-setting
Policy definition
Implementation
Evaluation
Learning
13
NOTES 1. PLACE, DATE AND EVENT NAME 1.1. Access
the slide-set place, date and event name text box
beneath the JRC logo from the Slide Master. 1.2.
Do not change the size nor the position of that
text box. 1.3. Replace the mock-up texts for the
place (Place), the date (dd Month YYYY) and
the event name (Event Name) with your own
texts. 1.4. Set it in MetaPlus Book Roman, if you
own the typeface. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 1.5. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 1.6. Keep the original
font colour (white). 1.7. Keep the original font
body size (7 pt) and the text on one single
line. 2. SLIDE NUMBER 2.1. The slide number on
the banners lower right-hand side is
automatically generated. 3. SLIDES 3.1.
Duplicate the first slide as needed. 3.2. Do not
change the size nor the position of the slides
text box. 3.3. Try not to place more text on each
slide than will fit in the given text box. 3.4.
Replace the mock-up heading text (Joint Research
Centre (JRC)) with your own text heading. 3.5.
Set it in Eurostile Bold Extended Two or in
Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own one
of these typefaces. Otherwise, keep the original
typeface Arial. 3.6. Keep the original
flush-left justification. 3.7. Keep the original
font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). 3.8. Keep the
original font body size (28 pt) and the heading
on one single line whenever possible. Reduce the
font body size if needed. 3.9. Replace the
mock-up text (The European Commissions
Research-Based Policy Support Organisation))
with your own text. 3.10. Set it in MetaPlus Book
Roman, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, keep
the original typeface Arial. 3.11. Keep the
original flush-left justification. 3.12. Keep
the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Use
black if you need a second colour. 3.13. Keep
the original font body size (22 pt) or reduce it
if unavoidable. 3.14. Replace the EU-27 map
mock-up illustration with your own
illustration(s). 3.13. Try to keep your
illustration(s) right- and top- or bottom-aligned
with the main text box whenever possible.

• Typical situations of Foresight for policy
  support
• challenges faced by territories (regions,
  countries, cities etc.) decline of key
  industrial sector, relocation, accession to EU,
  coastal flooding
• decisions that need to be backed up by
  stakeholders to be successful priority setting
  for research, innovation, regional development
• decisions with deep or long-term impact
  infrastructure, transport, healthcare
  reorganisation
• need to prepare for emerging phenomena with
  disruptive potential high uncertainty climate
  change, knowledge society, globalisation,
  demographic change, immigration, nanotechnology,
  hydrogen society
• need for enhancement of innovation capability

14
Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise
Structured stakeholder dialogue
Diagnosis
Prognosis
Prescription
Debating what we would like to happen Deciding
what should be done
Understanding where we are
Exploring what could happen