Foresight Programme overview and MCW report

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Foresight Programme overview and MCW report

• FAN Club
• 6 July 2009

Jon Parke Foresight Follow-up
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UK Foresight Programme
Helping Government to think systematically
about the future.

• By
• Understanding what futures might be possible
• Challenging presumptions
• Building a more robust approach to the future

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Previous projects
Mental Capital and Wellbeing
Detection Identification of Infectious Diseases
Sustainable Energy the Built Environment
Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
Tackling Obesities Future Choices
Flooding Coastal Defence
Cyber Trust Crime Prevention
Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum
Brain Science Addiction Drugs
Cognitive Systems
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Programme stakeholders
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Mental Capital and Wellbeing

• Project aim
• To produce a challenging and long-term vision for
  optimising mental capital and mental wellbeing in
  the UK in the 21st century both for the benefit
  of society, and for the individual.

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Why the Project was undertaken Major challenges
ahead

• The demographic age-shift
• Changes in the global economy and the world of
  work
• The changing nature of UK society
• Changing attitudes, values and expectations
• New science and technology

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Project contributors
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The principal stages of the Foresight Mental
Capital and Wellbeing Project
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Mental Capital and Wellbeing

• It has drawn on state-of-the-art science across
  a wide range of disciplines economics and social
  sciences neuroscience and genetics psychology
  and psychiatry education and occupational health
  
• It comprises more than 80 studies, and has
  involved over 400 experts and stakeholders from
  16 countries
• It is the Projects broad scope, coupled with
  strong use of scientific and other evidence, that
  provides its key added value

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The Life Course Trajectory of Mental Capital and
Wellbeing
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Project synthesis has taken a lifecourse approach
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Children Future challenges

• Up to 10 of children have a learning difficulty
• Dyslexia and dyscalculia - reduce lifetime
  earnings by 45,000-115,000
• Developing adolescent brain leaves teenagers
  vulnerable
• Meeting the challenge
• Early detection
• Teacher training
• Coaching for parents
• Looked after children

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Wellbeing at work

• Absenteeism 10 to 14 million days lost, 750
  million per year
• Presenteeism c 900 million per year
• Meeting the challenge
• Training and retraining throughout our working
  lives
• Wellbeing audits
• Flexible working and improved line management
• Better integration of primary care and
  occupational health services.

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Mental ill-health

• Mental ill-health costs England up to 77
  billion a year
• one in six adults in the UK suffer a common
  mental disorder at any one time
• Some mental disorders are set to grow in the
  future
• Future prevalence of other disorders uncertain.
• Meeting the Challenge
• Scope for improving early diagnosis and treatment
• Address social risk factors e.g. debt
• Address stigma and discrimination

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An ageing population

• By 2071, over 65s could nearly double to 21m,
  over 80s more than treble to 9.5m
• By 2038, dementia could double to 1.4m, and
  costs treble from 17 to 50b pa
• Meeting the challenge
• Protect mental capital through exercise,
  lifelong learning
• Promote social networking
• Technologies for assisted living
• Early detection of cognitive decline

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Why this agenda matters

• Wider economic costs almost certainly understated
• Potential benefits of higher levels of mental
  capital not included.
• Wide range of potential interventions including
• Depression - treatment
• Currently 53 of those affected are treated net
  saving 578 million
• Could increase net saving to 1.1 billion
• Wellbeing at work
• Wellbeing audits - 100 million per annum
• Integration of occupational health with primary
  care - 200-325 million
• Flexible working for all - 250 million per annum
• Learning difficulties
• Strong case for intervening early

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Signposts for action

• Signposts include
• Improve diagnosis and treatment
• Address stigma and discrimination
• Target risk factors and very high risk groups
• Strengthen protective factors
• Integrate primary, social and occupational care
• Harness wider policies in government
• Monitor impact of new policies on mental health
  and wellbeing
• Improve access to work for people with mental
  health problems
• New ways of getting government to work together

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Future strategy

• Key messages include
• Higher priority for mental capital and wellbeing
  in government budgets
• Consider the impacts over long timescales
• Target vulnerable groups
• The government response - integrated across
  departments.

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Achieving impact

• Pre-launch
• Dementia Strategy and Strategy for an Ageing
  Population
• Cabinet Office and Strategy Unit initiatives
• Post-launch
• Government initiatives
• Learning Revolution WP
• Bradley Review
• Technology investment
• New Horizons

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Foresight Programme overview and MCW report

• FAN Club
• 6 July 2009

Jon Parke Foresight Follow-up