Scanning the Horizon

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Scanning the Horizon

• Small Business Trade Association Forum
• Roger Brentnall

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Agenda

• Horizon Scanning Background
• Socioeconomic Trends
• Shape of Industry
• Demography
• Working Patterns
• Technology Snippets
• Scenarios for 2017

http//www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm
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Scanning the Horizon
What about the future?
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Horizon Scanning
the systematic examination of potential
threats, opportunities and likely future
developments, including (but not restricted to)
those at the margins of current thinking and
planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and
unexpected issues as well as persistent problems
or trends. Definition of Chief Scientific
Advisers Committee, September 2004
Looking Ahead Looking Across
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Horizon Scanning

• To
• inform strategic thinking, planning and target
  setting
• identify possible changes of direction and
  emphasis and assist in formulation and delivery
  of HSEs strategic programmes.
• By
• systematically anticipating, identifying and
  preparing for new or changing risks in workplaces
  and work activities, which may appear on a 3-10
  year horizon.

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Key Drivers

• Science and technology
• The workplace and working practices
• Socio-economic trends that affect the labour
  market
• Trends in public attitudes towards risk
• The UK political agenda
• The European Union
• International developments (globalisation)

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Hot Topics

• CO2 Capture Storage
• Complex Working Practices
• Cyber Security
• Demographics
• Flexible Working Patterns
• Future of Keyboards
• Gene Therapy
• Human Performance Enhancement
• Hydrogen Economy

• Nanotechnology
• New Emerging Pests
• Obesity
• Pervasive Computing
• Rapid Manufacturing
• Recycling
• Robotics
• Solvents Directive
• Sustainability
• TeraHertz Technology

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SocioeconomicTrends
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Topics

• Shape of Industry
• Growth in SMEs
• Sectoral Trends
• Demography
• An Ageing Workforce
• Impact of Migrant Workers
• Changing Working Patterns
• Increasing Flexibility/Precarious Working

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Growth in SMEs

• Of the 4.3 Million Businesses in the UK99 Have
  lt50 Employees
• Number of SMEs is Growing at Around 50,000 p.a.
• Business Services, Leisure,Catering,
  Construction
• Challenges for HSE
• Effective Communication
• HS Management
• Appropriateness of Guidance

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Sectoral Trends
Source BERR Enterprise Directorate
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An Ageing Workforce

• Population Trends
• By the Late 2020s 40 of Population Will be Over
  50 and 28 of Population Will be Over 60
• Staying in Employment
• Those Who Enjoy Work Wish to Carry on vs. Those
  Who Will be Forced to Continue for Economic
  Reasons
• Workplace Trends
• Employment Rate for Workers Over 50 has Increased
  by 8 Since 1993
• Projected that by 2020 there will be 775,000
  People Economically Active Over 65 (33
  Increase from 2005)

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Age-Related Performance

• No Evidence for Deterioration in Most Types of
  Work at Least up to Age 70 (DTI, 2003)
• Some Functions such as Knowledge Reasoning May
  Improve with Age (Ilmarien, 2001 Griffiths,
  1997)
• Detection, Recall Recognition Tasks Tend to
  Become Less Reliable with Age (Bell, 2005)
• Wide Individual Differences in Changes in
  Cognitive Ability with Age (Wilson, 2002)
• Other Factors Likely to be Involved (Diet,
  Exercise etc.)

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Migrant Workers

• Recent Influx from Accession 8 Countries
• Poland Heads Top 5 Sources of Migrant Workers
• Over 80 Under 34 Years of Age
• Broader Geographical Spread
• Range of Occupations but Tending to be Low Paid

Source DWP NI Data
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Migrant Workers

• Economic and Other Benefits Recognised
• Research Report RR502
• No Evidence to Suggest Higher Risk per se
• Migrants More Likely to Work in Sectors with HS
  Concerns
• Health Safety Implications
• Language Skills
• Lack of Familiarity with Industry/Type of Work
• Different HS Culture
• Access to HS Training
• Knowledge of Rights
• Foreign Language Guidance
• Dedicated Webpages

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Working Patterns

• Flexibility Increasing
• Home/Tele-working, Part-Time, Shift Working,
  Second Jobs
• Employment more Precarious
• Short-Term Contracts, Agencies, Temporary
  Workers, Self-Employment

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Implications

• Need to Ensure Effective (HS) Training
• Increased Risk of Injury to Part Time Temporary
  Workers ?
• Clarify Responsibility for Management of HS
• Agency vs. Employer
• Flexible/Precarious Working
• Greater Personal Control, Productivity
• Increased Stress, Social Isolation Work/Life
  Blurring
• Monitoring/Ensuring the Safety of Remote Working
  Locations

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Technology Developments
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Hydrogen Economy

• Combustion or Fuel Cells
• Vehicular and Stationary Applications (CHP)
• Flammability
• Storage (High Pressure, Adsorption)
• Distribution
• Public Perception

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RFID - HS Applications

• Healthcare
• Patient ID, Medication (Quality/Administration),
  Equipment Tracking
• Personnel Tracking/Monitoring
• Nuclear Industry, Mine Safety, Care of the
  Elderly, Access Control
• Personal Protection
• Collision Prevention, Inspection Tracking
• Process Safety
• Process Monitoring, Harsh Environments,
  Transport Applications

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HPE

• HAL-5 Bionic Exoskeleton
• Self-Powered
• Doubling of Lifting Capacity
• Applications for Care Workers the Military
• Cognitive Enhancing Drugs
• Eugeroics Modafinil
• Stay Awake/Alert for 36 Hours
• Foresight Drug Futures Predict Common Use by
  2011

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Rapid Manufacturing

• A manufacturing revolution which will change
  society
• as we know it !!
• Extension of Rapid Prototyping technologies
• Stereolithography, Laser Sintering, 3D Printing,
  Fused Deposition
• Early adopters in medical, automotive, aerospace
  industries
• Offers the capability for mass customisation

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HSE Scenarios for 2017
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HSE Scenarios for 2017
Personal responsibility, pro-active adoption of
technology, management of risk
A Virtue of Necessity
Digital Rose Garden
Decreased UK global competitiveness
Increased UK global competitiveness
Blame culture, resistance to new technology,
rejection of risk
Boom and Blame
Tough Choices
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Summary

• Horizon Scanning Background
• Socioeconomic Trends
• Shape of Industry
• Demography
• Working Patterns
• Technology Snippets
• Scenarios for 2017
• http//www.hse.gov.uk/horizons/index.htm