LOOKING AHEAD ICELAND AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT

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LOOKING AHEAD - ICELAND AND TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT
Arnold Verbeek Catholic University of Leuven
(Belgium) RD division INCENTIM SOOS policy
research centre
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The programme

• Introduction
• Why look ahead in time?
• Is foresight a prediction? What is foresight?
• Foresight around the world some findings in
  different countries
• Foresight in Flanders (Belgium) the food sector
• Developed methodology
• The future a glance at some results and policy
  recommendations
• Planning of het future needs knowledge of the
  present
• Foresight in Iceland? Some thoughts and
  suggestions
• Discussion

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IntroductionIt is always difficult to predict,
especially the future. (N. Bohr)

• 1878 Erasmus Wilson, professor of Physics at
  Oxford University
• When the Paris Exhibition closes, electric light
  will close with it and no more will be heard of
  it
• 1943 Thomas Wilson, chairman of the board of
  IBM
• I think there is a world market for about five
  computers
• 1977 Ken Olsen, President of DEC at the World
  Future Society
• There is no reason for any individual to have a
  computer in their home
• 1981 Bill Gates, CEO of Microsoft
• 640 K ought to be enough for anybody

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IntroductionInterrelation between
science-technology-market
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Why look ahead?

• Increasing challenges brought about by fierce
  global competition
• Think only of the increasing demand for
  accountability and pay off of publicly funded
  research
• New emphasis on the importance of science and
  technology for growth and development
• formulation of scientific and technological
  policies and strategies to fit the complex
  economic and social needs raises significant
  challenges
• Government authorities, science and technology
  policy-makers and business managers have shown
  growing interest in exploring potential
  technological options and trends
• As a result
• Foresight activities, embracing a broad spectrum,
  from mainly technology-oriented aspects to more
  socially focused ones, have consolidated their
  importance within the decision-making process,
  particularly since the late 1980s in Europe and
  much earlier in the USA or Japan.

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Forecast, foresight, technology watch
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What is technology forecasting?
Cetron (1969) defined technological forecasting
as " the prediction, with a level of confidence,
of a technical achievement in a given time frame
with a specified level of support" (Cetron, 1969,
p.54).
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Forecasting jumping the curve
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What is technology foresightIt is always
difficult to predict, especially the future. (N.
Bohr)

• NOT predicting BUT identifying a range of
  possible future developments and the ways to
  understand them and influence them
• by getting a better picture of the mechanisms
  and causal relationships that determine them.
• An earlier definition of foresight by Irvine and
  Martin (1984) encompasses
• the techniques, mechanisms and procedures for
  attempting to identify areas of basic research
  beginning to exhibit strategic potential.
  (Irvine Martin, 1984 7),
• While a more recent working definition of
  technology foresight was provided by the 1996
  OECD Report in terms of
• systematic attempts to look into the longer-term
  future of science, technology, economy and
  society with a view to identifying emerging
  generic technologies likely to yield the greatest
  economic and/or benefits. (OECD, 199618)

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Levels of technology foresightIt is always
difficult to predict, especially the future. (N.
Bohr)

• The holistic level (country level)
• take into account the whole range of research and
  technology fields, most usually at national
  level, with the aim to identify trends and
  possible future development directions and to
  provide insights for lower-level foresight
  exercises
• The macro-level (fields or subfields)
• a foresight exercise at this level encompasses a
  limited number of research fields, opening
  perspectives for interdisciplinary research or
  highlighting the need for major initiatives in
  one or more of the fields of concern
• The meso-level (sector of industry)
• it regards a single scientific field or
  technology sector, in which research areas of
  major socio-economic impact are looked for
• The micro-level (companies)
• is usually the level of analysis for individual
  projects or projects carried out by scientific
  teams, active mainly in applied research rather
  than in basic science. Within companies,
  micro-level foresight exercises are used for
  identifying technical goals for projects or for
  estimating the potential impact of RD on
  particular products, processes and services

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Functions of technology foresightIt is always
difficult to predict, especially the future. (N.
Bohr)

• Direction-setting
• Foresight can be a valuable tool for devising
  science policy guidelines at national or lower
  levels or to deepen the insights into a more
  limited range of future RD options.
• Determining priorities
• Prioritizing between various development options
  of their research plans, programmes, objectives,
  resources, etc.
• Anticipatory intelligence
• Valuable source of background information on
  emerging scientific and technological areas
• Consensus-generation
• This is an important function which consolidates
  the communication channels and flows between the
  actors involved in the foresight process
  (scientists, funding agencies and research
  users), both internally, within the research
  community, and externally, between funding
  bodies, executors and users of research (e.g.
  government agencies, universities, industry
  laboratories)
• Communication and education
• This is a function which can be observed in one
  research community both internally and
  externally, in the relation with research users
  and the general public, shaping the culture and
  knowledge of users on the potential

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Foresight around the world...

• A. Verbeek K. Debackere, Onderzoeksdivisie
  INCENTIM, K.U. Leuven

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Foresight around the world The U.S.

• First attempts in the 1950s in the US by the RAND
  corporation 1960s forecasting by the US Navy, US
  Air Force (also Delphi)
• In basic research, the National Academy of
  Sciences (NAS) commissioned in 1963 a study to
  consider what level of Federal support is needed
  to maintain for the United States a position of
  leadership through basic research in the
  advancement of science and technology and their
  economic, cultural and military applications
• Followed by a series of studies funded by the
  NSF, especially on areas with long-term growth
  potential
• In the 1980s a series of studies carried out for
  the DoE and the DoD
• In the 1970s already the OSTP/NSF reports named
  outlook, foresight, issues management or
  la prospective came into place the oil crisis
  of 1973 could not be predicted
• Now permanent institutionalized scanning of
  critical technologies

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Foresight around the world Japan

• In 1969 the first 30-year technology forecasting
  programme started by Japans Science and
  Technology Agency
• encompassing all science and technology sectors
  and a wide range of experts from industry,
  universities and government organizations, in
  order to provide private and public
  decision-makers with views on possible long-term
  developments for broad direction-setting.
• The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MITI), with
  responsibilities in the field of industrial
  technological policies, developed its periodical
  10-Year Visions, and was soon followed by the
  Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and
  Culture (Monbusho) and the Ministry of Posts and
  Telecommunications
• Now already the results of the 7th Japanese ST
  forecasting (including Delphi) study is out!

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Foresight around the world The Netherlands
(from the 1970s)

• The Dutch Ministry of Education and Science, on
  the one hand, and the Ministry of Economic
  Affairs and the Ministry of Education and
  Science,
• Studies carried out
• A. Technology Foresight Studies - The Ministry of
  Economic Affairs
• The goal of these studies was to generate
  information for strategic technology policy in
  priority setting and decision-making and to
  facilitate interaction, networking and creation
  of new partnerships between public and private
  sector, in specific technological areas.
• B. Foresight Steering Committee - The Ministry of
  Education and Science
• The initial goals of the foresight initiatives
  were to correct the weaknesses of previous
  foresight exercises, such as insufficient
  priority setting, and to attempt to weigh
  different scientific areas against each other.
• A. Stipulated domains of interest
• Mechatronics (1989-1990)
• Adhesion (1990)
• Chipcards (1990)
• Matrix Composites (1992)
• Signal Processing (1992)
• Separation Technology (1993)
• Production Technology (1995)

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Foresight around the world The Netherlands
(from the 1970s) continued

• B. Four domains of future demand were identified
• Information and communication in the
  knowledge-based society
• Virtual and sustainable economy
• Internationalisation and regionalisation
• Quality of life
• Ten areas were however considered being
  essential
• Electronics research the National Electronic
  Highways Programme was complemented with a
  research programme, aimed at stimulating
  long-term innovation
• Learning and human capital
• Agriculture and food
• The service sector
• Environment protection the National Research
  Initiative Factor 4 was adopted, with the
  purpose to reduce the environmental damage by
  half under the conditions of a double growth and
  prosperity of the nation.
• Integral utilization of space
• Development of business and innovation in support
  of Dutch industry
• Administrative and socio-cultural
  internationalisation
• Social cohesion
• Health research

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Foresight around the world Other countries

• In the 1990s, foresight studies have been adopted
  by the governments of several other countries,
  among which, Finland, Spain, Greece, Italy,
  Australia, New Zealand.
• Driving factors for the adoption of foresight by
  a growing number of national governments in the
  world are
• The growing role of technology for industrial
  competitiveness, social and economic development
  calls for financial support from the government,
  especially for emerging technologies and
  strategic research, insufficiently supported by
  the market.
• The need for more systematic procedures for
  research priority-setting, foresight being a
  useful tool in this respect
• The emergence of a new social contract between
  science and society and the search for better
  links between the interests of industry and
  society in relation to technology and innovation
• The creation of effective networks between
  industry, universities and government research
  laboratories, as a part of wiring up the
  national innovation systems for better learning
  processes and more effective innovation.
• The need to stimulate SMEs to use new
  technologies in their development
• Other functions, such as national
  direction-setting, anticipatory intelligence,
  generating consensus, communication and
  education.

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EUs 6th Framework programme 1. Genomics and
biotechnology for health

• Genomics and biotechnology for health
• Fundamental knowledge and basic tools for
  functional genomics
• Gene expression and proteomics
• Structural genomics
• Comparative genomics and population genetics
• Bio-informatics
• Application of knowledge and technologies in the
  field of genomics and biotechnology for health
• Technological platforms for the development of
  new diagnostic, prevention and therapeutic tools
• Support for innovative research in genomics
  start-up companies
• Application of medical genomics knowledge and
  technologies in the following fields
• Combating cancer, degenerative diseases of the
  nervous system, cardiovascular diseases and rare
  diseases
• Combating resistance to drugs
• Studying human development, the brain and the
  ageing process

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EUs 6th Framework programme 2. Information
Society Technologies

• Integrating research into technological areas of
  priority interest for citizens and businesses
• Ambient intelligence systems
• Electronic and mobile commerce, technologies for
  secure transactions, for learning, for corporate
  knowledge management, and for e-government
• Large-scale distributed systems and platforms
  including GRID-based systems
• Communication- and computing infrastructures
• New generations of wireless and mobile
  communications systems and networks satellite
  communications systems all optical technologies
  integration and management of communication
  networks capacity-enhancing technologies
  necessary for the development of systems,
  infrastructures and services, in particular for
  audiovisual applications
• Software technologies and architectures assuring
  multifunctional services and distributed systems
  engineering and control of complex large scale
  systems to ensure reliability and robustness
• Components and microsystems
• Design and production of micro- and
  opto-electronic and photonic components
• Nanoelectronics, microtechnologies and
  microsystems, and multidisciplinary research into
  new materials and quantum devices new computing
  models and concepts
• Information management and interfaces
• Knowledge representation and management systems
  based on context and semantics, including
  cognitive systems, as well as tools for creating,
  organising, sharing and disseminating digital
  content
• Multisensoral interfaces capable of understanding
  the natural expression of human beings (.)

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EUs 6th Framework programme 3.
Nanotechnologies, intelligent materials, and new
production processes

• Nanotechnologies
• Long-term interdisciplinary research into
  understanding phenomena, mastering processes and
  developing research tools
• Supramolecular architectures and macromolecules
• Nano-biotechnologies
• Nanometre-scale engineering techniques to create
  materials and components
• Development of handling and control devices and
  instruments
• Applications in areas such as health, chemistry,
  energy, optics and the environment
• Intelligent materials
• Development of fundamental knowledge
• Technologies associated with the production and
  transformation of new materials
• Support engineering
• New production processes
• Development of flexible and intelligent
  manufacturing systems incorporating advances in
  virtual manufacturing technologies, interactive
  decision-aid systems and high-precision
  engineering
• Systems research needed for waste management and
  hazard control
• Development of new concepts optimising the
  life-cycle of industrial systems, products and
  services

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EUs 6th Framework programme 4. Sustainable
development and global change

• Technologies for sustainable development (shorter
  term)
• Renewable energy sources, energy savings and
  energy efficiency, especially in the urban
  environment, as well as clean transport, with the
  development of new vehicle concepts in particular
  for road transport, as well as the development of
  alternative motor fuels
• Intelligent transport, especially in the form of
  technologies making possible a rebalancing as
  well as the integration and increasing
  intermodality of different modes of transport,
  for example by means of innovations in the
  management of the logistic chain (in particular
  containers)
• Technologies for sustainable development (longer
  term)
• Fuel cells for stationary applications and in
  transport
• Hydrogen technology
• New concepts in solar photovoltaic technologies
  and advanced uses of biomass
• Global change
• Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions
  on climate and carbon sinks (oceans, forests and
  soil)
• Water cycle
• Biodiversity, protection of genetic resources,
  operations of terrestrial and marine ecosystems
  and interactions between human activities and the
  latter
• Mechanisms of desertification and natural
  disasters connected with climate changes
• Global climate change observation systems

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Foresight in Flanders... The food sector

• A. Verbeek K. Debackere, Onderzoeksdivisie
  INCENTIM, K.U. Leuven

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The case in FlandersWhat is the food industry?
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The case in FlandersDeveloped methodology
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The food industry in Flanders towards 2010A
balance betwee different forces
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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Areas of interest
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Interrelation Socio-economic developments and
technology areas
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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Issues of concern affecting future planning

• During the interviews with the experts, several
  issues of worry appear to be of great interest to
  the sector
• These topics have to be addressed in order to
  develop further in the future
• It is important to know (qualitatively and
  quantitatively) where we stand presently!

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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Trends on the consumer level

• The following consumer trends have been
  identified as leading for the coming years
• Trend 1 Do-It-for-Me Foods
• Trend 2 User friendly but sophisticated
• Trend 3 Balanced nutrition
• Trend 4 Form follows function
• Trend 5 Socializing function
• Trend 6 Childrens segment
• Trend 7 Light and fresh
• Trend 8 Flexibility in food preparation and
  consumption
• Trend 9 Personalized nutrition
• Trend 10 Clean, pure, healthy and safe

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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Some examples of innovations in the food
sector reflecting these trends
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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Foresight is not an isolated process
PEOPLE ORIENTED
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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Relevant technologies and their impact on
competition/industry
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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Evolutions with the highest impact on
competitiveness
Time
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The food industry in Flanders towards
2010Recommendation regarding the future
INGREDIENTS PRODUCTION 1. Stimulate research on
the development of ingredients that reduce the
loss of taste, look, and smell of healthy food 2.
Stimulate research on innovative and new
ingredients that answer the to the new trends in
respect of health and food FOOD PROCESSING 1.
Stimulate research on the replacement of
thermical processes by non-thermic processes in
the preparation of food products PACKAGING 2.
Stimulate research on intelligent
packaging FOOD SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
TECHNOLOGY 1. Stimulate further research on the
relation between food and health 2. Stimulate
further research on the relation between food and
mood MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS 1. Stimulate
research on rapid testing, online measurements
especially in a personalized setting
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Foresight on the local levelHow does foresight
have an effect on the local level?
Time
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Planning the future needs thorough knowledge of
the present!
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Planning the future requires knowledge of the
present and the past

• Measuring
• Absorptive capacity (amount of basic research)
• Knowledge base (specialization, gaps, etc.)
• Innovation network/system (actors, channels, role
  of universities)
• A lot of these concepts need to be measured by a
  portfolio of adequate indicators
• Number of publications per field
• Quality of Icelandic publications
• Technology development by patens
• In- and outflow of the educational system
• RD spending
• Number of researchers
• Collaboration patterns

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MeasurementA thorough knowledge of the
present technological strength (measured by
patents) of Iceland?
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MeasurementA thorough knowledge of the
present science in Iceland?
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Foresight in IcelandSome concluding
thoughts/suggestions

• For countries with limited research capacity,
  foresight can be of specific interest as a
  prioritization tool and a consensus creating
  effort
• Monitor and Relate actively to ongoing
  initiatives, like the Nordic initiatives,
  European and U.S. initiatives
• Invest in the translation of external knowledge
  and developments to the Icelandic setting rather
  than in large foresight/forecasting studies
• Integrate foresight in to a broader innovation
  pact in which other initiatives are also present
  it cannot be seen in isolation from other
  economic and technological developments
• Build a well-developed system of indicators
  around specific aspects of foresight in relation
  to RD, innovation and economic growth