Indonesias Demographic Dividend and Ageing The need for further research

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Indonesias Demographic Dividend and AgeingThe
need for further research

• Prof. Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo PhD
• Lilis MCicih Msi
• Demographic Institute Faculty of Economics
  University of Indonesia
• Symposium on Global Ageing and the Development of
  Education and Research in Gerontology Geriatric
• Depok, CHRUI, 3 June 2009

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Indonesias Demographic Giant
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Number of children per 100 working population
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Demographic Dividend and The Window of
Opportunity
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(No Transcript)
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Demographic Bonus(demographic dividend)

• Changes in age structure leading to economic
  bonus of demography (demographic dividend)
• The road to the opening of window of opportunity
• An opportunity for human capital development

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The Window of Opportunity

• The Indonesian window of opportunity will open in
  2020-2030
• Age Dependency Ratio at its lowest level ? 44
  young population compared to 100 workers
• Once in a lifetime
• Increases again after 2030 due to the rapid
  increase of old population

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Rapid increase in life expectancies

• From 45 years in 1971 to
• 70 years in 2009

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The explosion of old population in Indonesia
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Need to decompose old population by age

• Young old ages 60-69 years old
• Middle old ages 70-79 years old
• Old-old (grand-old) 80 years
• Different ages needs different intervention

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The UN Projection, 2006 Revision

• Calculated by
• Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo

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Growth of old population, Indonesia 1950-2050
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Number of young, middle grand-old people,
Indonesia, 1950-2050

• Source World Population Projection, 2006 revision
• Increase in life expectancy from 45.7 years in
  1970, to 65.4 in 2000, 69.9 in 2015, 76.9 in 2050
• Increase in number of old people 60, from 4.9
  million in 1950, to 21.4 m in 2010 and to 79.8 in
  2050.
• What is the social, economics and health
  consequences?
• Different ages ?different needs for caring and
  health services.

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Old women outnumber old men always

• Why and how do they live?

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Growth of young old by sex 1950-2050, will they
be still productive?
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Number of young old by sex

• Number of young old women is always higher than
  that of men
• In 2010 there will be 5.8 million young old men,
  and 6.7 mil young old women
• These increase to 17.2 m men and 18.5 female
• What are their socio-economic characteristics?

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Growth of middle old by sex 1950-2050, some of
them may still productive
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Number of middle old by sex

• The differences by sex continue
• In 2010 there will be 3.1 m male and 3.9 female
  middle old people
• In 2050 this increases to 11.6 middle old male
  and 14.2 middle old women
• The difference by sex is wider, more women
  survive to middle old

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Growth of grand-old by sex 1950-2050, mostly need
to be rescued
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Number of grand-old people by sex, 1950-2005

• Women live longer than men
• In 2010 there will be 1.1 million women compared
  to only 0.7 men aged 80 years and older
• The difference will be 3.3 million between
  old-old women, that is 7.6 million compared to
  4.3 old-old men.
• Old-old people need more care and social economic
  support

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The Profile of Old PopulationIndonesia, 2005

• Calculated by
• Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo et. al.

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Number of old population by age and sex 2005
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Number- by Age and sex 2005

• Source of data Susenas 2005
• Men Women 10.4 million young old, 4.8 middle
  old, and 1.4 m old-old
• Young old 5.0 million men compared to 5.4
  million women,
• Middle old 2.3 million men compared to 2.6 women
  
• Old-old0.65 million men compared to 0.81 million
  women.

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Old men were the head of HH, but there were 2,7
millions of old women as head of household
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Number - Age, sex, household head 2005

• The young old 4.7 million men vs 1.7m women as
  head of HH
• Middle old 1.98 m men vs 0.87 m women as head of
  HH
• Old-old 0.48 m men vs 0.23 m women as head of HH
• 238 000 women aged 80 years are head of
  household
• Who will take care of them and support their
  economic welfare?
• Thanks God, 3.7 m young old women, 1.68 middle
  old and 0.57 million old-old women not as HH
  head.
• Does this mean that there are enough caregivers
  for them ?

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Higher of rural old people live in nuclear
family 2005 who will take care of them?
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Age and living arrangement, 2005

• More old people in rural areas live in a nuclear
  family
• Care givers migrate to urban areas?
• Less old people live in extended family
• More grand-old people live in extended family
  than middle and young old.
• Meaning more care givers for old-old people?

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Old people are less educated
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Less educated old population were found in rural
areas
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Education and Residence, 2005

• Most of the low educated old people reside in the
  rural areas
• Less than 30 of old people with low education
  live in urban areas
• Old people of 60 years and above were born in
  1945 or earlier
• Too late to enjoy the 1973 SD Inpress established
  in all villages of Indonesia
• Need special services for the low educated men
  old people especially in rural areas.

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Grand-old people were still working, 2005
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Gender, old people and work, Susenas 2005

• More than 30, 20 and 10 of young old men were
  working at time of survey
• For young old women, the of working is much
  less, that is 12, 7 and 2.5 are working.
• It has to raise concern of why the 7 and 2.5 of
  middle old and grand-old women are still working?
• No social protection that they still have to earn
  for their living?
• Or relatives relative who economically support
  them?

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The absent of social protection, 2005
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Gender and the absent of social protection,
Susenas 2005

• Full time
• The young old 40 of men and less than 15 of
  women
• The middle old nearly 35 men and nearly 10
  women
• The grand-old 30 of men and nearly 10 of women
  are tsill working full time.
• What kind of work are they doing?
• Part time
• 40 and almost 50 of middle and grand old men
  are working lt35 hrs
• Between 10-15 of old women are working less than
  35 hrs.
• Need to be investigated further of what they are
  doing and how much they earn?

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Half of the old people are poor, 2005
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Old people and poverty Susenas 2005

• Increasing percentage of poor old people by age
• Slightly more than half of the old-old are poor
• Only 46 of young old are poor.

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More poor old people live in rural area, 2005
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Poverty and residence Susenas 2005

• 55.3 of poor old population live in rural areas
  compared to 33.5 in urban
• The non poor are more likely found in urban areas

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Old women are poorer than old men, 2005
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Gender and poverty Susenas 2005

• More poor old women than men
• 49.4 of poor women compared to 46 of poor men.
• Women live longer and do not remarry

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Middle and grand old people have least income,
2005
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How much do they earn monthly? Susenas 2005

• Poor young old female earns more income than men
• But this disappears with increases age
• Grand-old people earn very little- applies across
  the quintile.
• Majority young old males earn almost Rp100.000,
  Young old females earns much less (Q2)
• For higher income group (Q4 and Q5) the middle
  and old old people almost no income.
• Need policy empowerment to the young old, and
  rescue for the middle and old-odl people

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Number of staple food in a day. Susenas 2003

• Half of the old people eat less than 3 times a
  day.
• More women than men
• Is this reflecting poverty or wrong question?
• What does makanan pokok (eat) means?
• Indonesian use to eat rice three times a day,
• But there is a tendency to have bread and eggs
  for breakfast?
• Need to be more prices in the questionnaires?

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Have animal protein in their diet? Susenas 2003

• Ten percent of old people do not have animal
  protein in their meal
• About 80 do have animal protein but less than 3
  times a day
• Very low percentage of old people have animal
  protein 3 X a day
• Not satisfied?
• Need to improve questionnaires to capture whether
  during breakfast, lunch or dinner.

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Have non animal protein in a day Susenas 2003

• Majority of old people eat non animal protein
  less than 3 times a day
• Ten percent no non animal protein at all
• Little difference between men and women

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Eating vegetables in a day? Susenas 2003

• Majority of old people do eat vegetables but less
  than 3 times a day.
• Only 15 eat vegetables 3 times a day.
• No difference between old men and old women

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Eating fruit in a day? Susenas 2003

• 75 old people do eat fruit but less than 3 times
  a day
• About a quarter of them do not eat fruit at all
• Less old women eat fruit less than three times a
  day
• Need questionnaires that is more focus on food
  and nutrition for the old population

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Social activities?

• Susenas 2003

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Old people and religious activity Susenas 2003

• 40 old men and 30 old women involved in
  religious activity
• More old men than old women attended religious
  activity
• Religious activity can be used as vehicle to
  approach old people for information about well
  being or for services.
• The general perception is that old people
  survived in many challenges and difficulties due
  to their religious belief.
• But questionnaires should be improved to capture
  religiosity?

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Involved in ARISAN (revolving funds) ? Susenas
2003

• Very low percentage of old people involved in
  arisan activity
• Little differences between old women and old men
• Arisan forum is less useful as a vehicle to
  approach old population?

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Summary and further research needed
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Summary (1) The growing number

• Number of old population grew slowly until 2015,
  rapid increase started from 2015 to 2050
• More old women than men, across the ages
• The old-old (grand-old) women will be 1.1 million
  in 2010 compared to 0.7 million old-old men
• Consequences
• Living arrangement
• Intergenerational transfer
• Well being

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Summary (2) How to reach successful ageing?

• Who will become old by 2015 and onward?
• What are their characteristics now, will they be
  able to support themselves?
• How to reach successful and productive ageing?
• Healthy and nutritious food,
• Healthy lifestyles,
• Regular exercise?

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Further research needed

• How to make younger population to be prepared for
  ageing?
• How to avoid risky ill prepared behavior?
• Smoking, alcohol, drugs habit
• Healthy eating habit
• Doing regular exercise
• How to improve productivity to get regular income
  for pensions or old time insurance?

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Summary (3) Household status and living
arrangement

• Old men are the head of household
• But, 238 000 grand-old women are head of HH
• More old people are less likely to live in a
  nuclear HH, meaning more caregivers?
• Although many still live in nuclear family

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Further research needed

• Living arrangement
• three generations under one roof
• how old people shared their old values with their
  grandchildren?
• Will younger generation today able to support
  their elderly people?
• Sandwich generations
• Middle age head of household have to take care of
  their children
• While at the same time they have to take care of
  their parents or in laws
• Are they ready?

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Summary (4) Gender and the absent of social
protection

• Old women and men still have to work for a living
• Old women are less likely to work,
• But there are still many middle and grand-old
  women still working
• More than 35 hours a day (full time work)
• Need social protection rescue rather than
  empowerment

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Further research on How to provide social
protection?

• Rescue system for the grand-old population
• Rescue system for some of the middle-old
  population
• Create innovative productive activities of the
  young-old population
• Develop a national policy of social protection
• Prepare the younger genaration with regular
  income to pay insurance

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Further research needed

• Intergerational transfer
• In the past children are the pensions system for
  their elderly parents
• Studies found that sons sent money while
  daughters take care their old parents or inlaws.
• But single daughters are now moving to urban
  areas or working abroad
• Children do not have adequate income and large
  housing to accommodate their old parents

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Summary (5) Gender and poverty

• More poor old women than men
• Middle old and old-old are less likely to have
  income

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Further research needed

• Research on how to empower the young old
• Research on how to rescue for the grand-old and
  some of the middle old?
• How community based activities can involve to
  take care of old people in their surrounding
  areas?
• How to push the Government to provide social
  protection for these old population

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Summary (6) Gender and eating habit

• No significant difference in eating habit between
  old men and old women
• In terms of staple food, protein, vegetables and
  fruit

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Further research needed

• Need detailed study on gender, poverty issues and
  eating habit, attention to the limited data
• The existing culture women were always second or
  third priority when come to food consumption
• How to change this attitude? This is preparing
  for healthy population when they are old.

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Need detailed data, national and local level, for
research on ageing

• Further research on old people and
  social-economic and religious activities
• Data do not enough to explore social and
  religious activities
• Need to be more focused on this topic
• Suggest to BPS for separate modules on Old
  population, socio-economic characteristics and
  well being.

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Thank You