U.S. EPAs Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment

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U.S. EPAs Guidelines for Ecological Risk
Assessment

• Anne Sergeant
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of
  Research and Development
• Chair, Joint ANSTF/NISC Prevention Committees
  Risk Analysis Working Group

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Ecological Risk Assessment

• A process that evaluates the likelihood that
  adverse ecological effects may occur as a result
  of exposure to a stressor.

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Ecological Risk Assessment

• Well-executed Ecological Risk Assessment is
• holistic
• planned
• focused
• flexible
• enlightening

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Ecological Risk Assessment

• Ecological Risk Assessment is NOT
• cost-benefit analysis
• justification for already-planned activities
• unfocused data collection

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Ecological Risk Assessment
Problem Formulation
Planning
Characterization of
As Needed Get Data, Iterate, Monitor
Analysis
Exposure
Ecological Effects
Risk Characterization
Communicate Results
Risk Management
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Why Would Anybody Ever Want Go Through All This?

• Optimize use of resources
• Determine and agree on what needs to be examined
• Ensure that nothing is overlooked
• Validate Best Professional Judgement

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Planning

• Gather everybody at the table
• risk assessor
• risk manager
• interested parties
• those affected by the decision
• Identify values

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Planning

• Establish management goals
• Identify
• Entity
• Attribute
• Desired state

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Planning

• Example Management Goal
• Entity Coho salmon population in the Snake
  River
• Attribute abundance
• Desired State population that can support a
  sport and recreational fishery

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Problem Formulation
Integrate Available Information Source
Ecosystem Ecological Exposure at Risk
Effects
Assessment Endpoints
Conceptual Model
Planning
As Needed Get Data, Iterate, Monitor
Analysis Plan
Analysis
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Assessment Endpoint

• An explicit expression of the environmental value
  to be protected

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Assessment Endpoint

• Identifies
• Entity
• Attribute
• Spatial and temporal extent

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Assessment Endpoint

• Based on
• Ecological relevance
• Susceptibility to the stressor
• Relevance to the management goal

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Example Assessment Endpoints

• Bird survival
• Eelgrass habitat and distribution
• Forest community structure and habitat value
• Fish survival, growth, and reproduction

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Types of Measures

• Exposure
• Effects
• Ecosystem and Receptor Characteristics

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Conceptual Model
Source
Stressor
Response/Receptor
Change in Endpoint Attribute
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The Yupik People
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Problem Formulation
Characterization of Exposure
Effects
Measures of Exposure
Measures of Effects
Measures of Ecosystem and Receptor Characteristics
Analysis
As Needed Get Data, Iterate, Monitor
Exposure Ecological Response Analysis
Analysis

Stressor-Response Profile
Exposure Profile
Risk Characterization
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Exposure Analysis

• Describe stressor sources
• Describe stressor distribution
• Describe contact or co-occurrence
• Prepare exposure profile

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Ecological Response Analysis

• Stressor-response analysis
• Establish causality
• Link measures to assessment endpoints
• Prepare stressor-response profile

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Analysis
Risk Estimation
Risk Characterization
Risk Description
As Needed Get Data, Iterate, Monitor
Communicate Results to Risk Manager
Risk Management and Communicating Results to
Interested Parties
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Risk Characterization

• Integrates stressor-response and exposure
  assessments
• Uses qualitative as well as quantitative
  information
• Describes uncertainty

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Risk Estimation

• Compares exposure and effects data
• Field surveys
• Categorical rankings
• Process models

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Risk Description

• Expected effects
• Adversity
• nature and intensity of effects
• temporal and spatial scale
• recovery potential

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Risk Description

• Lines of Evidence
• relevance to assessment endpoints
• relevance to conceptual model
• data quality and sufficiency
• causality
• magnitude/direction of uncertainty

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Reporting Risks

• Clear
• Transparent
• Reasonable
• Consistent

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Uncertainty

• Knowable
• Reducible
• Irreducible
• Unknowable
• Affects our confidence in the assessment

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Communicating Results to the Risk Manager

• Management objectives
• Conceptual model
• Assessment endpoints
• Accessible terminology and style

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Informing Risk Management

• Relate ecological data to risk-management
  decisions

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We Can Use the EPA Process to

• Frame the risk-assessment question
• Identify resource needs
• Minimize the chance of surprises
• Document data and assumptions

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Finding the Guidelines

• http//cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/cfm/recordisplay.cfm?dei
  d12460