1242.2219

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management
Motto Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic Arthur C. Clarke.
'Profiles of the Future' 1962
(Clarke's Third Law)
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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Agenda
• Technologies to be managed
• Problems in information technology management
• Elements of technology management

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Information Technologies to be managed
• hardware
• software
• communications
• integration

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Problems in Information Technology Management
• multiplicity of technologies
• constantly changing technologies
• forecasting difficulty

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Multiplicity of Technologies - Hardware
• client/server
• smart/dumb
• mobile/static
• central/desktop/laptop/handheld

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Multiplicity of Technologies -
  Software
• philosophies OOP, process oriented, rule
  based etc.
• operating systems Windows versions, Unix
  versions, MVX, etc.
• languages COBOL, C, Java, Perl, CGI, Visual
  Basic, LISP

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Multiplicity of Technologies -
  Communications
• point-to-point copper wire/optical
  fibre/infrared/
  
• wireless local loop/cellular/satellite
• analog/digital
• mobile/static
• protocols (software)

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Constantly Changing Technologies
• instant obsolescence
  
• the variant life cycle problem
• integration of different generations
• but see also possible negative effects of
  standards

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management
Possible Disadvantages of Standards MS DOS
shows the power of the marketplace in deciding
which standards will be adopted most widely.
Kindly stated, it is user hostile, arbitrary,
over complex, intolerant of errors and novices,
and badly designed. However, it became the
standard across the personal computer field once
IBM chose it over several now-forgotten
competitors operating systems. It created an
industry. Even though IBM introduced an entirely
new operating system on its PS/2 series machines,
DOS is alive and thriving Peter G.W. Keen.
Shaping The Future Business Design Through
Information technology. Harvard Business School
Press, 1991.
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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Forecasting
  Difficulty
• Every big advance in the past 20 years was not
  predicted they were only understood after they
  were in existence McNurlin Sprague, p.193
• over-optimism techno-hype ?
• effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL -
  wireless local loop)
• effects of lack of standardization (e.g.
  cellular phones in US)
• computing how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting)

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Examples of Techno-hype
• telecommuting
• ISDN
• Business Process Reengineering (BPR)
• Hammer, M. 1990. "Reengineering work don't
  automate, obliterate," Harvard Business Review 68
  (4, July-August) 104-112.
• Artificial Intelligence

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Forecasting
  Difficulty
• over-optimism techno-hype
  
• effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL)
• effects of lack of standardization (e.g.
  cellular phones in US)
• computing how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting)
• examples from AI and Expert
  Systems

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Artificial Intelligence History Future
Predicting Developments in AI The history of
predictions Simon and Chess McCarthy and
common sense
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Artificial Intelligence History Future
Predicting Developments in AI The need for a
sense of history, e.g.
the wheel medicine the Internet
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Artificial Intelligence History Future
Predicting Developments in AI The need for
humility and perspective Given the history, how
to predict the future?
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Artificial Intelligence History Future
Strong AI Questions
Can a machine think? (The Turing test) Can a
machine learn? Can a Chinese room think? Can a
machine have emotions? Can a machine have
consciousness? Is the brain a quantum level
phenomenon? What is the nature of (human)
intelligence?
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Artificial Intelligence History Future
The Loebner Prize Medal and a cash award is
awarded annually to the designer of the computer
system that best succeeds in passing a variant of
the Turing Test. In 1999, 2,000 and a bronze
medal will be awarded to the designer of the Most
Human Computer as rated by a panel of judges.
the winner of the 100000 Grand Prize must be
prepared to deal with audio visual input, and
appropriate competitions will be held once
competitors have reached Turing's 3070
likelihood level of being mistaken for a human.
An intermediate Turing Prize of 25000 will be
offered for the first/best program to exceed this
level.
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Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner
JUDGE00 PROGRAM113034 PROGRAM113034
Let's start. JUDGE05 PROGRAM115222 PR
OGRAM115222Ready JUDGE05115239Hi! I'm
Greg. PROGRAM115241Hi PROGRAM115244Nice
to meet you . JUDGE05115312How are you
today? PROGRAM115313I'm fine thanks
JUDGE05115353What sort of things are you
interested in? PROGRAM115421I am not
interested in Astrology although my star sign is
Libra. JUDGE05115438Why is
that? PROGRAM115505One never knows one's
destiny, that's the mystery of life.
JUDGE05115625Yes. What direction have you
gone in through life so far? PROGRAM115638Yes
well they travel here but where have you
travelled. PROGRAM115709I have seen people
suck coffee through a Tim Tam.
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Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner
(contd)
JUDGE05115833A number of places. Have you
tried that with tea? PROGRAM115847Airports
are such soulless places, don't you
think? PROGRAM115857Of course
JUDGE05115957Yes, but you can catch up with
work there sometimes.Do you find
that? PROGRAM120002You have to be interested
in politics in a democracy. JUDGE05120036Wh
y do you say that? PROGRAM120048My brother
thinks Dilbert portrays a very realistic picture
of the software industry. JUDGE05120137How
would you relate that to politics? PROGRAM12015
3That has nothing to do with politics
JUDGE05120241So why can't people be
uninterested in politics? PROGRAM120256People
who play the money market don't produce anything
so should therefore be ostracized from society.
JUDGE05120405How would the economy work if
you did that? PROGRAM120422I think the
effects of a bad Japanese economy will be
disastrous. JUDGE05120437Goodbye. PROGRAM
120437Bye JUDGE05121205
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A Young Ladys Session with (the Rogerian)
DOCTOR (ca. 1965)
YOUNG LADY Men are all alike DOCTOR
In what way YOUNG LADY Theyre always bugging us
about something or other DOCTOR Can
you think of a specific example YOUNG LADY Well,
my boyfriend made me come here DOCTOR
Your boyfriend made you come here YOUNG LADY He
says Im depressed most of the time DOCTOR
I am sorry to hear you are depressed YOUNG
LADY Its true. I am unhappy DOCTOR
Do you think coming here will help you not to be
unhappy YOUNG LADY I need some help, that much
seems certain DOCTOR What would it
mean to you if you got some help YOUNG LADY
Perhaps I could learn to get along with my
mother DOCTOR Tell me more about your
family YOUNG LADY My mother takes care of me
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A Young Ladys Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR
(contd)
DOCTOR Who else in your family takes
care of you YOUNG LADY My father DOCTOR
Your father YOUNG LADY You are like my father
in some ways DOCTOR What resemblance
do you see YOUNG LADY You are not very
aggressive but I think you dont want me to
notice that DOCTOR What makes you
think I am not very aggressive YOUNG LADY You
dont argue with me DOCTOR Why do you
think I dont argue with you YOUNG LADY You are
afraid of me DOCTOR Does it please you
to believe I am afraid of you YOUNG LADY My
father is afraid of everybody DOCTOR
What else comes to mind when you think of your
father YOUNG LADY Bullies DOCTOR
Does that have anything to do with the fact that
your boyfriend made you come here
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Loebner Competition Scores - 1999
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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management
Forecasting Difficulty
Knowledge representation, especially commonsense
knowledge, is becoming the key to technological
development!
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Artificial Intelligence History Future

• Roadblocks in the Development of AI
• Knowledge acquisition
• Representational knowledge
• Emergent knowledge

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Artificial Intelligence History Future
Roadblocks in the Development of AI
Commonsense knowledge Implicit
knowledge John broke his piggy bank to buy
Mary a Barbie doll for her
birthday. Fuzzy knowledge canary a small
finch of the Canary Islands that is usually
greenish to yellow and is kept as a cage
bird and singer. Context
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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management
Lessons From Expert Systems Edward A. Feigenbaum
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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Elements of Technology Management
• create an architecture a set of policies,
• principles and guidelines
• paraphrased from McNurlin Sprague, p. 191
• creating an architecture requires a vision

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Elements of Technology Management
• Positioning the IT Platform
• scope
• range
• growth
• standards
• adaptability to new developments
• adaptability to organizational needs

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Elements of Technology Management
• Final Thoughts
• develop a vision of where you want the IT
  platform to
• be in the future in terms of the
  organizations needs
• observe critically beware of magic bullets
• be sceptical!

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1242.2219 Information System Economics
Technology Management

• Summary
• Technologies to be managed
• Problems in information technology management
• multiple technologies
• changing technologies
• standards
• forecasting
• technohype
• Elements of technology management