Follow-up on Frames Team Activities

1
Follow-up on Frames Team Activities

• Presentation to the ASA-Energy Committee
• Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, SMG
• April 28, 2005

2
Outline of Presentation

• Background
• Previous Frames Team Effort
• Frames Sufficiency Criteria
• Results of Frame Evaluation for Sufficiency
• Frames Team New Activities
• Recommendations of Latest Team
• Questions for Committee

3
Background

• EIA Strategic Plan
• Provides the impetus for increased efficiencies
  in frames activities
• Requires frames performance measures concerning
  sufficiency of frames
• of EIA survey frames with sufficient industry
  coverage to produce reliable supply, demand and
  price statistics.

4
Previous Frames Team Effort

• Frame checking against alternative lists at
  respondent level
• Data comparisons at an aggregate level
• Examining supply/disposition balances
• For price data, comparing volumes that the price
  data represent with total volumes
• Dual system methodology

5
Frame Sufficiency Criteria

• Existence of a systematic maintenance approach
• Frame volatility over time
• Use of comparable frame listings from other
  sources
• Existence of a balancing item and the magnitude
  and stability of the balancing item over time
• Relative concentration of volumes in a few
  respondents
• Changes in the industry, legislation, regs, etc.
• Independent assessment by the survey manager of
  the frames quality

6
Information Collected

• Initial basic frame information
• Stability (or volatility of the frame)
• Corresponding useful listings of frame units
• Balancing item stability
• Relative concentration of volume in a few
  respondents (skewed distribution)

7
Results of Sufficiency Evaluation

• Reviewed 34 frames
• 5 were deemed out-of-scope
• The team found 29 frames within the teams
  purview, with 25 deemed sufficient and 4 deemed
  insufficient or dont know.

8
Insufficient Frames

• EIA-815 (Monthly Terminal Blenders Report)
• EIA-910 (Monthly Natural Gas Marketers Survey)
• EIA-886 (Annual Survey of Alternative Fueled
  Vehicle Suppliers and Users)
• EIA-3 (Quarterly Coal Consumption and Quarterly
  Report, Manufacturing Plants)

9
Limitations of Frames Sufficiency Approach

• EIA may want to determine sufficiency by survey
  rather than by master frame
• Pros
• Better measure of frame sufficiency (perhaps more
  useful for EIA)
• Cons
• 67 surveys versus 29 master frames
• Strategic Plan calls for frame sufficiency.

10
Frames Team New Activities

• The teams charter states the teams objectives
• To work toward a long-term goal of enhanced
  commonality in IT
• To identify opportunities to share frame
  information
• To monitor the quality of EIA frames, recommend
  needed enhancements to frames, recommend surveys
  to be discontinued or that result tables be
  provided with appropriate caveats
• To recommend further studies needed to evaluate
  frames sufficiency
• To prepare updated recommendations for the Frame
  Sufficiency performance measure

11
Recommendation on Teams Activities

• High Priority
• Complete/maintain an inventory of EIA frames
• Conduct quarterly meetings (or special meetings
  as the need arises) among affected or interested
  offices
• Study/update frame documentation standards
• Medium Priority
• Develop best practices for system maintenance,
  support flexibility of system design
• Look into replacing existing standard on Frames
  Maintenance Development with a revised version

12
Questions for Committee

• Are there any suggestions as to how to proceed in
  determining sufficiency of frames in the future?
• Are there any comments or advice regarding the
  current frames teams recommendations?