Ageing and Health in the EU

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Ageing and Health in the EU

• Bio-Demographic aspects of ageing The AGIR
  project

N. Ahn, R. Génova, J. A. Herce and J.
Pereira Helsinki, 12-14 June 2003 ENEPRI -
FEDEA
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• Structure of the presentation
• Population, births and mortality since 1950
• Longevity
• Lifecourses
• Health and disability
• Ageing and health
• Concluding comments

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1. Population I
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1. Population II
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1. Population III
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1. Births I
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1. Births II
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1. Mortality I
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1. Mortality II
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1. Mortality III
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2. Longevity I
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2. Longevity II
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2. Longevity III
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2. Longevity IV
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3. Lifecourses
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4. Health and disability I
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4. Health and disability II
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4. Health and disability III
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4. Health and disability IV
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4. Health and disability V
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4. Health and disability VI
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4. Health and disability VII
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4. Health and disability VIII
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5. Ageing and health I
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5. Ageing and health II
Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Males at 15)
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5. Ageing and health III
Predicting LEGH trhough LE? (Females at 15)
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5. Ageing and health IV

• Two scenarios for Adjusted LEs
• CRM or Constant Relative Morbidity It implies
  keeping constant the ratio of years lived in good
  health (or bad health or free of disability) to
  the number of years lived (Stable weights)
• CAM or Constant Absolute Morbidity It implies
  associating any gain in life expectancy to an
  equal number of years lived in good health (or
  bad health or free of disability) (Compression
  Hypothesis)

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5. Ageing and health V
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5. Ageing and health VI
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6. Concluding comments

• European populations have been ageing since the
  first demographic transition ended at the
  begining of XX century. The second demographic
  transition has made ageing more apparent.
  Survival has increased considerably and will be
  the leading driver of future ageing.
• Longevity has been the result of compressed
  mortality rather than of extended limit to human
  life. Whether life endurance increases steadily,
  survivors ratios at extreme ages have increased
  manifold in last decades.
• Lifecourses have evolved thus that working years
  are becoming closer to years since leaving
  activity what heralds a much distorted future
  balance between assets and liabilities of any
  kind both at individual and social levels.

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6. Concluding comments

• Assessing health status is a puzzle. Countries
  compare badly and time trends are difficult to
  discern from either national health surveys or
  the ECHP. However, there is a general pattern of
  health or disability adjusted life years keeping
  track with gains in unadjusted life expectancies.
• A sofisticated projection of adjusted life
  expectancies cannot be done on the basis of the
  data available. Rather what can be done is to
  build scenarios that do not contradict plainly
  observed trends. Both CRM or CAM scenarios show
  that as life expectancy of Europeans increases
  few more years free of health or disability
  impairments could also be at their hand.