Nuclear Weapons

1
Nuclear Weapons Climate Change The connection

• GUERRES ET ECOCIDES
• responsabilités et engagements
• lUniversité du Québec à Montréal
• le 6 février 2008
• Adele Buckley
• Les Conférences Pugwash Canada

2
Global societies face two crises

• Nuclear conflict would destroy life on earth
• BUT we have not achieved nuclear disarmament
• Climate change could make the earth uninhabitable
• BUT effective action has not occurred
• International tensions will increase

3
Effects of climate change

• Disruptions to human security and the economy
• Human suffering, especially in developing
  countries
• Armed conflicts over resources
• Involvement of states that have nuclear weapons,
  and threats of use

4
Avoidance of double disaster

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier
• Nuclear disarmament must be achieved before the
  most serious effects of climate change are upon us

5
Undermining the world food supply

• Droughts, floods, change of growing season, pest
  infestations, loss of arable land to food
  productiongtgtgtgt stressgtgtgtgt open conflict
• Regional nuclear war, cools the climate BUT
  adds long lasting particulates to the atmosphere.
  For years reduction of solar energy reduction
  of precipitation loss of crops and arable land
  due to radiation

6
Climate induced food stress made worse by
regional nuclear conflict

7
Water availability

• Unsustainable water consumption already exceeds
  natural replacement by 1/3.
• WATER USERS Industry, agriculture, cities
  individuals
• Glacial melting to extinction many global
  communities rely on glacier water
• Ecological best practices water should stay in
  its own watershed resist pressure to export bulk
  water
• Water wars?
• Middle East serious water problems nuclear
  threats? Israel has nuclear weapons
  proliferation is possible in other ME states
  (Iran, Saudi Arabia)

8
Economic slump

• Economic stress through measures taken to combat
  climate change emission regulation, cost of
  carbon (trading and tax), infrastructure changes
  (e.g.water), alternate energy technology, carbon
  capture
• In the past, war has lifted a country to economic
  viability. Very dangerous, when at least 8 states
  have nuclear weapons

9
Large scale population movement

• Coastal flooding will result in millions of
  people seeking refuge internally in their own
  country and in nearby countries. EXAMPLES OF
  PROBLEMS
• Border tensions will be increased
• India and Pakistan possessors of nuclear
  weapons will experience extreme tension, will
  require army personnel, leading to a built-in
  conflict situation in S.E. Asia
• Developed nations ill prepared for rescue and
  evacuation (e.g. Hurricane Katrina)
• Infrastructure destruction 40 of Asian
  population lives within 45 miles of coastlines

10
Military Operations

• We found that climate instability will lead to
  instability in geopolitics and impact American
  military operations around the world, said
  retired General Gordon Sullivan, chairman of the
  U.S. Military Advisory Board, releasing the
  report National Security and the Threat of
  Climate Change April 16, 2007 (1)

11
Technical personnel, material and resources

• We need an all-out war effort to adapt to
  climate change
• Not enough new science and technical graduates
• Not enough resources being applied
• At the same time, the nuclear weapons industry
  has been expanded in the U.S., and other
  countries consider having their own nuclear
  weapons
• Attractive job opportunities are offered to new
  graduates and skilled personnel BUT we need their
  work in the next 2 decades to get control of
  greenhouse gases

12
Consequences of nuclear terrorism or a
nuclear accident

• POSSIBILITIES
• A nuclear weapon explosion accidental, or
  deliberate by terrorists
• A dirty bomb releasing widespread radiation
• An accident in nuclear power generation
• CONSEQUENCES climate change problems get worse
• Regional water systems compromised
• Land that previously grew food is contaminated

13
Nuclear energy renaissancea favoured choice for
India, China, U.S. and others

• Accidents must be prevented
• Terrorists must not have access
• _____There must be no opportunity for
  proliferation_____
• IAEA, the United Nations watchdog, can perform
  inspection and verification in non-nuclear
  weapons states that have signed the
  Non-proliferation Treaty. There is no inspection
  for nuclear weapons states.
• IAEA provides extensive technical advice to
  nuclear power plant managers, BUT it has no
  authority to enforce
• A centralized supply system for nuclear fuel may
  be established.
• NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) WANO (World Assn
  of Nuclear Operators) provide a framework and
  assistance, but there are gaps in the protection
  offered there.
• The present control system is dangerous and is
  inadequate to prevent accidents and mandate sound
  operation. Citizens around the globe must have
  much better protection

14
PROPOSAL Universal inspection and verification

• Every nuclear reactor has a global presence
• A universal inspection system must include new
  owners in developing countries AND all the
  nuclear weapons states, and all their nuclear
  reactors
• As soon as possible, third party verification
  must be an integral part of the system. The
  third party inspection team would be
  international and must have no conflict of
  interest

15
US Federal Audit showed that NRC staff did not
verify the authenticity of technical safety
information submitted by nuclear power plant
operators. Citizens Petition to Halt Flawed U.S.
Nuclear Plant Relicensing ENS Jan 3 08BELOW
Ginna, Oyster Creek, and Indian Point nuclear
power plants
16
Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT)

• FMCT moves us toward nuclear disarmament and ALSO
  connects to climate change
• Could be a first step toward safety for all
  citizens (who have been encouraged to believe
  that nuclear power is the energy solution to
  combat climate change)
• BecauseFMCT requires comprehensive verification,
  so it would set in place a universal system that
  could be extended for inspection and verification
  of all nuclear reactors.

17
Arctic Climate Change

• Global warming is relatively greater in the polar
  regions
• Climate change endangers the lifestyle of the
  indigenous people of the Arctic, and threatens
  the long term survivability of the wildlife
• HOWEVER, there are new opportunities for the
  circumpolar nations

18
Arctic territory in Canada

19
Opportunity a Nuclear- Weapon-Free-Zone (NWFZ)
in the Arctic

• Ice-free navigation through the Northwest Passage
  will be possible CLIMATE CHANGE!
• Now Canada must have a greater presence in its
  Arctic lands and waters
• Canada could declare a NWFZ in the Canadian
  waters of the Northwest Passage
• A UN General Assembly resolution could call for
  NWFZ north of the Arctic circle

20
NWFZ and nuclear disarmament

• Northwest Passage, undersea, is convoluted,
  shallow, inhospitable to submarines
• The Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) have nuclear
  submarines in waters north of the Arctic Circle
  NWFZ would be a significant achievement toward
  nuclear disarmament
• Withdrawal of submarines would be evidence of
  great statesmanship others would follow?

21
Recent Studies on Security and Climate Change

• National Security and the Threat of Climate
  Change, U.S. Military Advisory Board report
  April 16, 2007
• An Uncertain Future Law Enforcement, National
  Security and Climate Change, Chris Abbott,
  Bristol University, for Oxford Research Group,
  UK January, 2007
• Climate Change and Conflict, International
  Crisis Group www.crisisgroup.org Nov, 2007

22
Prognosis Two global problems climate change
and nuclear weapons

• THESE CRISES CAN BE HANDLED WITH PRESENT
  KNOWLEDGE AND USE OF EXISTING TECHNOLOGY
• POLITICAL WILL IS MISSING
• ACTION NOW - Individuals and NGOs can raise
  awareness
• get understanding and involvement of the public
• push governments to act, nationally and
  internationally to
• establish broad-based international coalitions