Department of Political Science

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Department of Political Science
In the Grip of Climate Change The Circumpolar
Dimension
2030North Ottawa June 2, 2009
Rob Huebert CIC Fellow Rhuebert_at_ucalgary.ca Calgar
y, Canada
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Main Themes

• The Canadian Arctic is in a state of massive
  transformation through Climate Change
• Perception/Reality of Increased Assessiblity
• Impact on Canadian
• Domestic
• Circumpolar
• International
• Potential for new tensions/insecurities but
  could also create new opportunities
• What should Canada do?

3
Transforming Northern Society

• Youngest Population in Canada
• Impact of Globalization/Communications
• Evolution of Traditional Culture
• New Actors in Canadian North
• Climate Change and Society
• Weather
• Hunting

4
The Face of Northern Leadership
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Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008
Source Canadian Ice Service
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Climate Change and Economics

• Land Based Resource Production
• Increased challenges melting permafrost
• Marine Based Resource Production
• Fishing
• New stock
• New International pressures
• Marine Transportation
• New entries
• Safety, Security, Sustainable, Sovereignty

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Oil and Gas
Oil and Gas Resources of the North
Source AMAP
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US Geological Survey Arctic 2008

• To determine the sources of traditional energy
  supplies
• No consideration of non-traditional energy
• E.g. gas hydrates
• Main Findings
• 30 of undiscovered Natural Gas in Arctic
• 13 of undiscovered Oil in Arctic

9
New Oil and Gas Activity North America

• Exxon/Mobil, Imperial - Cdn Beaufort
  Sea/Mackenzie Delta 585 million five years
  2008-2013
• BP Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta 1.2
  billion
• Continued Debate over Gas Pipelines

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1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker
Source Samsung Heavy Industries
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Proposed Arctic LNG
Source Samsung Heavy Industries
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Gas Hydrates
Mallik Gas Hydrate Test Mackenzie Delta 2002

(Source USGS)
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New Interests in Arctic

• Chinese interest in Polar Science, Resource
  sources and Transportation
• Japanese funding of Canadian research in Gas
  Hydrates
• South Korean Polar Ship Building
• Samsung Daewoo
• EU Arctic Policy

14
Chinese Arctic Interest

• Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk

-1st Arctic Voyage July-Sept 1999 -2nd Arctic
Voyage July-Sept 2003 -3rd Arctic Voyage Summer
2008
Xue Long in Antarctica
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Northern Governance (where to Draw Borders and
who gets to do what within them)

• Devolution
• Unilateral Action
• Existing Rules are Sufficient
• Illussat May 2008
• Regional
• Role of Arctic Council
• New Regional Agreement
• International
• Inclusion of non-Arctic States eg EU

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Maritime jurisdiction boundaries in the
Arcticwww.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic
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Canadian Effort for Article 76
Natural Resources Canada
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Russian 1st Claim - Article 76
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New Geopolitics of the North

• Russia
• Renewed Assertiveness
• Petrodollars
• United States
• Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act
• International Role as remaining Superpower
• Norway
• Refocus on North
• Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia
• Denmark
• Issues with Greenland social energy
• Iceland
• Economic melt-down
• Canada
• Re-examining its Arctic capabilities
• Renewed Assertiveness

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Renewed Russian Strengths

• 1990s Period of Extreme Reduction
• 2000s Renewal
• Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015
• 6 SSBN 995 Borey
• 2 SSN 885 Yasen
• 6 Diesel 677 Lada

Yury Dolgoruky
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Russian Surface Fleet Return to Arctic Waters
Summer 2008
Severomosk
Marshal Ustinov
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US Arctic Forces

• Submarine Forces
• US Seawolf and Los Angles Class (Virginia
  Class?)
• Cooperation with UK
• ICETEX March 2009 2 LA class SSN
• - Missile Development
• Missile Defence Ft. Greely

USS Honolulu 2003
HMS Tireless 2007 after accident
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Norwegian Developments

• Fridtjof Nansen class - 5
• Aegis system
• Purchase 48 F-35 JSF Aircraft Nov 2008

Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008 Source
RNoAF
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Canadian Security Actions

• New Military Operations since 2002
• 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels
• Nanisivik Refueling Facility
• Resolute Bay Training Facility
• Increased Rangers Patrols
• Northern Watch
• Throne Speech Oct 2007
• Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security)

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Canadian Defence Actions (cont.)

• Feb 2008 Budget 720 Million Icebreaker
• June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper
  White Paper)
• Focus on Arctic Security
• Postponement (Cancelation?) of Joint Support
  Vessels
• Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic - Nordreg

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Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel

• Be capable of operations in Canadas three
  oceans
• Be first year ice capable in the Arctic
• Contribute to maritime domain awareness
• Support other departments, agencies and ocean
  research
• Have a gun armament for constabulary missions
  - DND

Source JTFN
Be capable of operations in Canadas three
oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic
Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support
other departments, agencies and ocean research
Have a gun armament for constabulary missions
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Conclusion

• Climate Change is Transforming the Arctic
• New Perceptions/Realities of Accessibility
• Fair
• Safe
• Secure
• Sustainable