Governments current Energy Security view

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Governments current Energy Security view

• Oil Summit 2008
• 9 October 2008
• Nhlanhla Gumede
• DDG Hydrocarbons and Energy Planning, DME

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Source Energy Geopolitics, Professor Michael J.
Economides,
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Source Energy Geopolitics, Professor Michael J.
Economides,
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GDP loss due to fuel supply interruptions

• Based on 2005 terms, South Africa would lose R1
  billion per day if there is no fuel

Source ETP, Task 139, September 2006
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RSA Energy Security - definition

• Energy security is not only about security of
  supply of energy
• Energy security means ensuring that diverse
  energy resources, in sustainable quantities and
  at affordable prices, are available to the South
  African economy in support of economic growth and
  poverty alleviation, taking into account
  environment management requirements and
  interactions among economic sectors.

Source DME, Energy Security Masterplan, 2007
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Energy Security history - oil

• Oil occupies a special place in the discussions
  of energy security. Oil dominated energy security
  discussions from oil shocks of the 1970s to the
  mid-1980s. Falling oil prices and a reliable
  supply lowered oils place on the security agenda
  for a time, but it returned to prominence
  following the uncertainty caused by the terrorist
  attacks on the United States on the 11 September
  2001 and the military actions in Afghanistan and
  Iraq Barton et al, page 4

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Energy Security differences

• There is no one size fits all in energy security
• Varies between developed and developing countries
  
• Varies between exporting and importing country
• Varies between rural and urban population
• Depends on time (short vs long term issues
• Is about risk mitigation
• Can be viewed from a single or group perspective,
  national or regional perspectives
• The role of government in energy space
• Vary by the nature of the threat

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More energy poor forecasted for the future
Electricity Deprivation Africa 526m
584m (2030)
Lacking access to clean cooking fuels Global
2.5bn 2.7bn (2030)
People Relying on Traditional Biomass (million)
Source IEA WEO (2006)
Source IEA WEO (2004)
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Energy Security in the US

• Energy Security. We hear the term all the time,
  but what does it really mean?
• Do we mean national security? Well, sort of.
• Do we mean energy independence? Well sort of
  that, too.
• Do we mean economic security? Yes, all of the
  above. Ethanol Across America

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Energy Security in the UK
The UK faces two major long-term energy
challenges climate change which requires a cut
in damaging emissions and the need to deliver
secure supplies of clean energy at affordable
prices. North Sea reserves are in decline and the
UK will become increasingly dependent upon
imported oil and gas. In addition, current
nuclear power stations, the UKs largest source
of low-carbon electricity, are approaching the
end of their lives and are due to close.
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Oil Security in South Africa
Source ETP, Task 139, September 2006
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Oil Security in South Africa
Source National Treasury, 2007
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Competition for Available Flows
Source BP Statistical Review of the World
Energy, June 2008
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A more global definition of energy Security

• Energy security is a condition in which a nation
  and all, or most, of its citizens and businesses
  have access to sufficient energy resources at
  reasonable prices for a foreseeable future free
  from serious risk of major disruption of service
  Barry Barton et al, page 5

Source Energy Security - Barry Barton,
Catherine Redgwell, Anita Ronne
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Energy Security Framework

• Energy security is not only about security of
  supply

Foreign policy
Local production
Reserve margins
Climate change (mitigation adaptation)
Energy infrastructure planning
Energy security
Standards specifications
Role of state in productive sectors
Demand management
Energy Research
Diversity of supply
Macro-economic framework
Import Export policies
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Energy security

• Data
• Demand modelling
• Demand management
• Supply options evaluation
• Price
• Availability
• Environmental considerations
• Energy planning policy choices

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I Thank You