II

1
??????????? ? ??????????? ??????
2

• I ?????, ???????, ???????????
• II ????? ? ??????????? ???????? ???? ????????
  ??????? ?????? ??????
• III ????? ? ??????????? ??????? ???? ????????
  ???????? ???? ????????? ? ???????? ?????????
• IV ????? ? ??????????? ????????????? ????
  ???????? ????? ????
• V ??????????? ? 21. ?????
• VI ??????????

3
I ?????, ???????, ???????????
4

• ????? ??????????? (?? ?????? ???? ???- ????? ?
  ???????? ????????) ???? ?? ? ???????? ???????
  ???????? ?????? ?????? (1864-1922) ?? ??????
  ????? ?? ??? ?????? ????????? ????? ???????
  ?????? (????? ???????????????, ????????????,
  ????????????? ? ?????????????) ? ???? ?????? ???
  ??????? ????? (1916).
• ?????? ?? ??????? ??????????? ??? ????? ? ??????
  ??? ??????????? ????????? ??? ?????? ? ????????

5

• Rudolph Kjellén was Ratzel's Swedish student who
  would further elaborate on organic state theory
  and first coined the term "geopolitics."

6

• ???? ?? ?????? ????, ?????? ??????????? ??,
  ?????? ? ?????? ????????, ???????? ?????? ???
  ??????? ????, ???????? ???? ?????????? ???????.
• ? ???????? ??????, ??? ???????????? ??
  ??????????? ????? ?????????? ? ?????????? ??????
  ?????? ??????????? ???????? (????????, ?????,
  ???????, ?????, ???????? ????????? ???.) ?
  ????????. ? ?????? ?? ?????? ?? ?? ?? ??????
  ??????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ?????????
  ??????????. ????? ???? ??????? ?? ???????
  ???????? ?????????? ? ???????? ??????? ?????
  (1844-1904) ? ???? ????????? ?????????? (1897)

7

• ???????? ??? ??????? ??????????? ????????
  ??????????-??????????????? ???????? ???? ??????,
  ?? ?????? ?????????? ???????? ????????. ?? ?????
  ?? ??? ???????????? ??????????? ???? ?????
  ????????? ????????? ??????????, ??. ?????????
  ??????????? ?????????? ????? ? ???????????
  ???????? ?? ????? ?????????, ??????? ??????
  ????????...
• ??????, ??????????? ??????? ????????, ???????? ?
  ?????? ???????????? ???????, ????? ?????? ?
  ???????? ???????????? ?????????? ?????, ??????? ?
  ??????? ?? ??? ?????????? ??????? ? ??????
  ????????? ??????.

8
??????????? ???? ????????

• ??????? ?????????? ???????????? ????????, ?
  ?????? ??????????? ??????????, ?????????? ?
  ?????????-??????????? ??????? ? ??????
  ???????????, ? ???????? ?????????? ?????????,
  ???????? ??? ? ??????? ???? ? ?????? ?????????,
  ????????, ?????????, ???????, ??????????,
  ????????, ???????? ? ??????.
• ?????? ?????, ??? ?? ???????????? ??????????, ??
  ? ???????????????? ??????????? ???????????,
  ??????? ?????????? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ???
  ???? ??????, ????? ?? ??????????, ?????, ???????,
  ?????????? ??? ????????, ?????? ? ??????...

9
II ??????????? ? 19. ? 20. ????

• ?????? ???????????? ?? ????????? ?????????
  ???????? ???? ?? ?????????, ? ????? ??????
  ????? ?????? ????????? ????? (???? ?????? ?
  ??????????) ? ???????? ????????o ????? ?
  ????????? ????? ???? ??? ???????? ?????? ???????
  ????? ?? ????????? ?? ?? ??????????????????? ??
  ????????? ?? ????????... ? ????? ??????, ???
  ??????????? ????? ?????? ??????? ???? ??
  ????????, ?????? ? ???????????? ???????? ?
  ????????? ?????????? ?????????? ????, ?????? ??
  ??????? ??????? ????? ????????? ?????????? ?
  ????? ????????? ? ????????? ????????? ?
  ??????????? ?????.
• ?????? ?????????? ???????? ??????? ? ???????
  ?????????? ? ???????????? ?????? ?? ????? ???????
  ? ? ?????????? ??????????, ??????????
  ?????????????, ?????????? ???????????? ?
  ?????-?????????? ????????? ???????? ???????? ??
  ??? ????? ??????? ??????? ???? ?????? ????????

10
?????? ?????? ???? ?????????? ???????? ? ????
???????? ???? ???????? ????????

• ? ??? ??????? ????????????? ????? ??????? ??
  ??????? ?????.

11
??????? ????? (1844-1904)

• ???????? ?????????? ?? ??????? ????????? ????? ?
  ??????? ??????? ? ? ????????
• ???? ????????????????? (1882) ?????????
  ?????????? (1897) ??????? ??????? (1901)

12

• ???????? ? ???????? ??????? ????????????????? ?
  ???????????? ???????.
• ?????? ??? ???? ????????? (???????? ???????
  ??????) ??????????? ?? ?????? ?? ??????????
  ??????? ???? ??????? ? ???? ???????? ???
  ????????? ?????, ??????? ? ??? ?????? (????????
  ???????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ?????????)
• ?????? ?? ???????? ??????? ? ????? ? ????? ????
  ??????? ????? ????????? ????????, ?????? ??
  ???????? ????????? ??????? ??????? (lebensraum)
  ?? ??? ???????? ? ??????.

13

• ??????? ???????? ?? ??? ???????? ???? ???????
  ???? ?????? ? ????????? ???????? ?? ????
  ????????? ? ?? ???? ???? ????? ????????? ???, ?
  ???? ???????? ?????? ???????? ??????????
  ????????
• ??????????? ?? ???????, ????? ??????? ??????
  ????? ?? ????????? ??????? ?????? ? ????? ?????
  ?? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ????????, ??? ??
  ??????? ??????? ????????????? ???????? ? ?????
  ??????.

14
Rudolph Kjellén (1864-1922)

• ???????? ?????????? ????? ?? ???????????? ?
  ?????? ????????? (???? ?????????? ??????? ??
  1905-1917)
• ????
• ???? ? ?????????? ??????? (1900)
• ?????? ??? ??????? ????? (1916)

15

• ???????????? ?? ? ??????????? ?? ??????, ??????
  ?? ??? ?????????? ???????? ??????? ????????
  ??????? ????????, ??????? ??? ?? ? ?????? ???????
  ????????????? ?????? ?? ????? ??????????, ????
  ?????????? ?? ??????????? ? ????????? ?? ??,
  ???????? ??? ?? ??? ? ???. ????????? ?????? ????
  ???????? ????? ?????? ? ??? ???? ?? ????
  ?????????. (?? ?????? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ???????,
  ??????? ?? ??????).

16

• ? ?? ???????? ????? ?????? ?? ???????
  (?????????? ??????? ????????) ? ? ??? ??????
  ?????? ?????????? ????????? ???????????? ??????
  ?????? ??? ?????????? ???, ????????? ? ??????.

17
???? ????????? (1869-1946)

• ??????? ????????, ??????? ? ????????????
• ???????? ?? ??????????? ? ??????? ??????? ??
  ??????????? ???????? ????????????? ??????? ???
  ???????????? ? ???????????.
• ????
• English Translation and Analysis of Major
  General Karl Ernst Haushofer's Geopolitics of the
  Pacific Ocean Studies on the Relationship
  between Geography and History
• Geopolitik des Pazifischen Ozeans. (1925)
• Bausteine zur Geopolitik. (1928)
• Weltpolitik von heute. (1934)

18

• ?????????? ??????????? ??? ????? ? ??????????
  ?????????? ???????? ?? ????????? ???, ?????????
  ?? ? ??? ????? ???????? ?? ?????? ??????? ??????
  ?????? ??????????...
• ???? ??????? ????????? ???????? ?????? ? ???????
  ?????, ???? ?? ???? ?? ???????? ?????????????
  ????????????? ????? ????????? ? ???? ? Mein Kampf
  ??? ??? ??????? ?? ?????.

19

• ????????? ?? ????????? ? ????? ?? ???????
  ????????? ??? ??????? ??????? ???????
  ?????????????, ??????? ?????? ? ???????.
• ????? ???????? ? ????? ???????
• Lebensraum ????, ????????? ???? ?????????????
  ????? ???? ? ???

20

• ???????? ?? ???????? ?????? ?????? (Mittel?uropa)
  ??? ???????? ???????????
• ??????? ??????? ???????? (Grossraum)
• ????????? ?? ????? ?????? ????????????? ?????
  ????????? ? ???? ??? ?????????? ???-???????,
  ???-?????? ? ???-?????, ? ?????? ?? ??????????
  ???, ??????? ? ?????.

21
II ????? ? ??????????? ???????? ????

• ???????? ??????? ?????? ??????

22
Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914)

• ???????? ???????? ??????, ???????? ? ????????????
• ????
• The Influence of Sea Power upon History
  1660-1783 (1890)
• The Influence of Sea Power upon the French
  Revolution and Empire 1793-1812 (1892)
• Naval Administration and Warfare Some
  General Principles, with Other Essays (1908)

23

• ????? ?? ????? ???????? ???????? ?? ??????????? ?
  ?????????????? ??????? ????????? ? ??????????????
  ?????? ????????????? ????????, ???????? ? ??????.
• ????? ????????, ???????? ?? ??????? ????????
  ????????? ????????, ????? ?? ???????? ??????? ?
  ??? ?????? ???? ?????????? ???? ? ??????, ?????
  ?????????? ?????? ? ?????????? ??????? ???
  ?????????????? ??????.

24

• Paul Kennedy distinguishes naval mastery from
  temporary, local naval superiority, or local
  command of the sea. By . . . the term naval
  mastery, however, there is meant here something
  stronger, more exclusive and wider-ranging
  namely a situation in which a country has so
  developed its maritime strength that it is
  superior to any rival power, and that its
  predominance is or could be exerted far outside
  its home waters, with the result that it is
  extremely difficult for other, lesser states to
  undertake maritime operations or trade without at
  least its tacit consent. It does not necessarily
  imply a superiority over all other navies
  combined, nor does it mean that this country
  could not temporarily lose local command of the
  sea but it does assume the possession of an
  overall maritime power such that small-scale
  defeats overseas would soon be reversed by the
  dispatch of naval forces sufficient to eradicate
  the enemys challenge. Generally speaking, naval
  mastery is also taken to imply that the nation
  achieving it will usually be very favorably
  endowed with many fleet bases, a large merchant
  marine, considerable national wealth, etc., all
  of which indicates influence at a global rather
  than a purely regional level. Paul M. Kennedy,
  The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery
  (London Macmillan, 1983, ªrst published in 1976
  by Allen Lane), p. 9

25

• He was appointed president of the new United
  States Naval War College from 22 June, 1886 to
  January 12, 1889 and again from July 22, 1892 to
  May 10, 1893. Whilst there in 1887 he met and
  befriended a young visiting lecturer named
  Theodore Roosevelt.
• In Roosevelts future naval policies we see the
  embodiment of Mahans larger principles.
  Moreover, this conjuncture of Mahan the
  theoretician and Roosevelt the man of action
  arrived at just the right time in history of the
  U. S. Its industries were booming, its commerce
  thriving and its merchants fighting gain markets
  overseas in the face of tough foreign
  competition. All of that pointed to the need for
  a strong navy. And, to be sure, the nation was
  getting one. (Paul Kennedy, Birth of a
  Superpower, Time, July 3, 2006, Vol. 168, No. 1,
  pp. 62-66.)

26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
Strategy and Naval Power (John J. Mearsheimer)

• A Navy bent on projecting power against a rival
  state must first gain command of the sea, which
  is the bedrock mission for naval forces.
• Command of the sea means controlling the lines of
  communication that crisscross the oceans
  surface, so that a states commercial and
  military ships can freely move across them. For a
  navy, to command an ocean, it need not control
  all of the sea all the time, but it must be able
  to control the strategically important parts
  whenever it wants to use them, an deny the enemy
  ability to do likewise.

29
(No Transcript)
30
(No Transcript)
31

• Navies can perform three power-projection
  missions where they are directly supporting the
  army, not acting independently
• Amphibious assault
• Amphibious landing
• Troop transport

32
Amphibious assault

• Takes place when a navy moves an army across a
  large body of water and lands it on territory
  controlled by a rival great power.
• Their aim is to engage and defeat the defenders
  main armies, and to conquer some portions
• The Allied invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944,
  is an example of an amphibious assault

33
Amphibious landing

• In contrast, amphibious landing, occur when the
  seaborne forces meet hardly any resistance when
  they land in enemy territory and are able to
  establish a beachhead and move well inland before
  engaging enemy forces.
• The insertion of British troops into French
  controlled Portugal during Napoleonic wars,
  discussed bellow, is an example. The landing of
  German army-units in Norway in the spring of 1940
  is another.

34
Troop transport

• Involves moving ground forces across an ocean and
  landing them on territory controlled by friendly
  forces from where they go to combat against enemy
  army.
• The American navy performed that this mission in
  World War I, when it moved troops from the United
  States to the France, and again in the World War
  II when it moved troops from the United States to
  the United Kingdom,

35

• There are also two ways that navies can be used
  independently to project power against another
  state.
• Naval bombardment
• Blockade

36
Naval bombardment

• Enemy cities or selected military targets,
  usually along a rivals coast, are hit with
  sustained firepower from guns or missiles on
  ships and submarines, or by aircraft flying from
  carriers.
• The aim is to coerce the adversary either by
  punishing its cities or by shifting the military
  balance against it.

37
Blockade

• The two great naval theorists of modern times,
  Corbett and Mahan, believed that a blockade is
  the navys ace strategy for winning great power
  wars.
• Blockade is the most striking and awful mark of
  sea power (Mahan)
• The aim is to cut off an opponents overseas
  trade to deny it imports that move across water
  and to prevent it from exporting its own goals
  and materials to the outside world
• Many examples in history

38
III ????? ? ??????????? ??????? ????

• ???????? ???????? ???? ????????? ? ????????
  ?????????

39
Sir Halford John Mackinder, (February 15 1861
March 6, 1947)

• ??????? ??????? ? ???????????? ???????? ?? ????
  ?????????? ?????????? ????????????
• ????
• The Geographical Pivot of History(1904)
• Democratic Ideals and Reality (1919)

40

• ?? ????, ? ??????????? ? ????????? ??????
  ????????? ? ?????????????? ????, ???????? ?????
  ??? ?????, ??. ??? ?????? ???? ??????????
  ???????? ??? ????????? ??????????, ??????????
  ????? ???????? (?????? ???? ??? Heartland)

41
(No Transcript)
42
?????? ?????????? ?????????

• ?? ????? ???????? ???????, ????? ???????? ????.
• ?? ????? ???????? ????, ?????
• ???????? ???????.
• ?? ????? ???????? ???????,
• ????? ??????. (1919)

43

• ? ?????? ??????? ???????????? ?????, ??????? ??
  ??????? ?? ??, ? ??????? ?? ?????? ???????????
  ?????????? ? ?????????? ?????????? ??????,
  ????????? ?????-????????? ? ????????? ??????????
  ???????????? ? (????????) ???????? ??? ???????
  ??????? ???? ?? ????? ????, ???? ????????? ???
  ?????? ??????, ?????????? ???????? ? ?????.
• ???????? ?? ???????, ? ????? ?????? ???????? ????
  (1943) ???????? ???? ???? ??????? ?? ????????????
  ????? ?????? ?? ????? ? ????? ?????? ?????????
  (????????? ?????????) ???? ?? ??????????
  ?????????? ????????????? ????, ????????? ?????.
• ??????? ??? ????????

44
Nicholas John Spykman (b.1893 d.1943)

• ????????-????????? ???????????? ? ???????? ?? ???
  ????????????
• ????
• America's Strategy in World Politics (1942)
• The Geography of the Peace (1944)

45

• Spykman adopts Mackinder's divisions of the
  world, renaming some
• the Heartland
• the Rimland (analogous to Mackinder's "inner or
  marginal crescent") and
• the Offshore Islands Continents (Mackinder's
  "outer or insular crescent").

46

• ????, ?? ???????? ???????? ?? ?? ?????? ???????
  ????????? (Rimland) ?????-????????? ? ?????????
  ?????????? ?? ????????? ? ?? ???????? ??? ????
  ?????????? ??????? ??????????.
• ?????????? ????????? ???????? ???, ???????? ?
  ???????? ??????? ???? ??????????? (???? ?????,
  ?????, ?????) ? ?????????? ?????? (?? ??????
  ???????. ??????? ? ????????) ?? ??????? ????????
  ? ?????? ?????????? ??????????? (containment)
  ?????????, ? ??????? ?? ??????? ??? ???????????
  ?????.

47

• Spykman recalls Mackinder's famous dictum,
• Who controls eastern Europe rules the Heartland
• Who controls the Heartland rules the World
  Island and
• Who rules the World Island rules the World,
• but disagrees, refashioning it thus
• Who controls the rimland rules Eurasia
• Who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the
  world.

48
(No Transcript)
49
(No Transcript)
50
(No Transcript)
51

• "Geography is the most fundamental factor in
  foreign policy because it is the most permanent."
  
• There are not many instances in history which
  show great and powerful states creating alliances
  and organizations to limit their own strength.
  States are always engaged in curbing the force of
  some other state. The truth of the matter is that
  states are interested only in a balance which is
  in their favor. Not an equilibrium, but a
  generous margin is their objective. There is no
  real security in being just as strong as a
  potential enemy there is security only in being
  a little stronger. There is no possibility of
  action if one's strength is fully checked there
  is a chance for a positive foreign policy only if
  there is a margin of force which can be freely
  used. Whatever the theory and rationalization,
  the practical objective is the constant
  improvement of the state's own relative power
  position. The balance desired is the one which
  neutralizes other states, leaving the home state
  free to be the deciding force and the deciding
  voice."

52

• "A political equilibrium is neither a gift of
  the gods nor an inherently stable condition. It
  results from the active intervention of man, from
  the operation of political forces. States cannot
  afford to wait passively for the happy time when
  a miraculously achieved balance of power will
  bring peace and security. If they wish to
  survive, they must be willing to go to war to
  preserve a balance against the growing hegemonic
  power of the period."

53

• ????? ? ?????????? ????????? ???????? ???
  offshore ?????????
• U.S.A. Grand Strategy in the 21st Century?
• The United States 7th Fleet is a naval military
  unit based in Yokosuka, Japan, with units
  positioned near South Korea and Japan. It is
  subordinate to Commander, Pacific Fleet. At
  present it is the largest of the forward-deployed
  U.S. fleets, with 5060 ships, 350 aircraft and
  60,000 Navy and Marine Corps personnel. With the
  support of its Task Force Commanders, it has
  three major assignments
• Joint Task Force command in a natural disaster or
  joint military operation,
• Operational command of all naval forces in the
  region, and
• Defense of the Korean Peninsula.

54
USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63), center of Task Force 70
of the United States 7th Fleet
55
Strategy and Land Power (John J. Mearsheimer)

• Land power is the most formidable kind of
  conventional military power available to states
• Armies are of paramount importance in warfare
  because they are the main military instrument for
  conquering and controlling land, which is the
  supreme political objective in a world of
  territorial states
• Only land power has the potential to win a major
  war by itself.

56

• Naval and air forces are simply not suited for
  conquering territory.
• Since men live upon the land and not upon the
  sea, great issues between nations at war have
  always been decided except in the rarest cases
  either by what your army can do against your
  enemys territory and national life, or else by
  the fear of what the fleet makes it possible for
  your army to do. (The famous British naval
  strategist Julian Corbett)
• Even in the MAD World, land power will remain the
  key component of military power.

57
Continental vs. Insular Great Powers

• ??????????? ?????? ?????????????

58

• An insular state is the only great power on a
  large body of land that is surrounded on all
  sides by water (The United Kingdom, Japan, USA,
  Ancient Athens)
• A continental state on the other hand, is a great
  power located on a large body of land that is
  also occupied by one or more other great powers
  (France, Germany, Russia, Ancient Sparta)
• Stopping power of water and security of insular
  states

59

• The balance of land power was principal
  determinant of victory in all of the tree central
  wars in the past 200 years French Revolutionary
  and Napoleonic Wars (1792-1815) World war I
  (1914-1918) and World war II (1939-1945)
• Seven other great powers vs. great power wars
  which have been fought over the past two hundred
  years (the Crimean War, 1853-1856) the War of
  Italian unification 1859 the Austro-Prussian War
  1866 the Franco-Prussian war 1870-1971 the
  Russo-Japanese war 19o4-1905 the Russian Civil
  War 1918-1921 and the Soviet-Japanese war 1939)
  were settled between rival armies on the
  battlefield

60
A ships a fool to fight a fort

• Horatio Nelson, the famous British Admiral

61
The strongest power is the state with strongest
army.

• John J. Mearsheimer

62
IV ????? ? ??????????? ????????????? ????

• ???????? ????? ????

63
Giulio Douhet (1869-1930)

• ??????????? ??????? ? ????????????
• ????
• Il Commando del Aereo (The Command of the Air)
• (1921)

64

• To Douhet, the form of any war depends upon
  the technical means of war available.
• In his book Douhet argued that air power was
  revolutionary because it operated in the third
  dimension. Aircraft could fly over surface
  forces, relegating them to secondary importance.
  The vastness of the sky made defense almost
  impossible, so the essence of air power was the
  offensive. The only defense was a good offense.
  The air force that could achieve command of the
  air by bombing the enemy air arm into extinction
  would doom its enemy to perpetual bombardment.
  Command of the air meant victory.

65

• Douhet believed in the morale effects of bombing.
  Air power could break a people's will by
  destroying a country's "vital centers". Armies
  became superfluous because aircraft could overfly
  them and attack these centers of the government,
  military and industry with impunity. Targeting
  was central to this strategy and he believed that
  air commanders would prove themselves by their
  choice of targets. These would vary from
  situation to situation, but Douhet identified the
  five basic target types as industry, transport
  infrastructure, communications, government and
  "the will of the people".
• The last category was particularly important to
  Douhet, who believed in the principle of Total
  War.

66

• Extrapolating from the raids that had taken place
  in 1916-1918, Douhet showed that forty aircraft
  dropping eighty tons of bombs might have
  completely destroyed a city the size of Treviso,
  leaving alive very few of its inhabitants.
• A mere three aircraft could deliver as much
  firepower as could a modern battleship in a
  single broadside, whereas a thousand aircraft
  could deliver ten times as much fire-power as
  could the entire British navy numbering thirty
  battleships in ten broadsides.
• Yet the price-tag of a single battleship was said
  to be equal to that of thousand aircraft.

67
Strategy and Air Power (John J. Mearsheimer)

• Air superiority if an air force does not
  control the skies, its strike forces are likely
  to suffer substantial loses, making it difficult,
  if not impossible for them to project power
  against the enemy.
• Command of the air to have command of the air
  to be in position to prevent enemy from flying
  while retaining the ability to fly oneself
  (Giulio Douhet)

68

• Once an air force controls the skies, it can
  pursue three power projection missions in
  support of army units fighting on the ground a
  close air support role Interdiction air-lift.

69
a close air support role

• In this case an air force flies above the
  battlefield and provides direct tactical support
  to friendly ground forces operating below.
• The air forces principal goal is to destroy
  enemy troops from the air, in effect serving as
  the flying artillery
• This mission requires close coordination between
  air and ground forces

70
Interdiction

• Interdiction involves air strike forces at the
  enemy armys rear area, mainly to destroy or
  delay the movement of enemy supplies and troops
  to front line.
• The target list might include supply depots,
  reserve units, long-range artillery, and the
  lines of communication that crisscross the
  enemys rear area and run up to its front lines.

71
air-lift

• Air lift means moving troops and supplies
  either to or within a combat theater.
• These missions, of course, simply augment an
  armys power.

72
Other Air Power Roles

• Airborne early warning and control
• Air reconnaissance and surveillance
• Air to air refueling
• Anti-submarine warfare
• Anti-surface ship operations
• Combat search and rescue
• Defensive counter-air operations
• Electronic warfare
• Offensive counter-air operations
• Suppression of enemy air defenses

73
Air Force as an independent Military Power

• Strategic Bombing
• In this case the air force strikes directly at
  the enemys homeland, paying little attention to
  events on the battlefield.
• This mission lends itself to the claim that air
  forces alone can win wars.
• The aim is to coerce the enemy into surrendering
  either bay massively punishing its civilian
  population or by destroying its economy, which
  would ultimately cripple its fighting forces.
• Strategic bombings campaign, like blockades, are
  not expected to produce quick and easy victories.
  

74
Bombing Great Powers

• The five cases in which a great power attempted
  to coerce a rival great power with strategic
  bombing 1) Germany bombed British cities in WWI
  and 2) WWII 3) The United Kingdom and the United
  States bombed Germany in WWII 4) The United
  Kingdom and the United States attacked Italy in
  WWII 5) the United States bombed Japan
• Although Italy and Japan were coerced into
  surrendering in World War II, both successes were
  largely due to factors other than airpower

75
Bombing Small Powers

• The ten instances in which a great power
  attempted to coerce a minor power with strategic
  airpower include 1) Italy against Ethiopia in
  1936 2) Japan versus China from 1937 to 1945 3)
  The Soviet Union against Finland in WWII 4) the
  USA versus North Korea in the early 1950-s 5)
  The USA against North Vietnam in the mid-1960s
  6) The USA against North Vietnam in 1972 7) the
  Soviet Union against Afghanistan in the 1980s 8)
  the USA and its allies versus Iraq in 1991 9)
  The USA and NATO against Yugoslavia in 1999 10)
  The USA in Iraq war in 2003

76

• Strategic bombing is unlikely to work for the
  same reasons that blockades usually fail to
  coerce an opponent civilian populations can
  absorb tremendous pain and deprivation without
  rising up against their government.
• in fact, in the more than thirty major strategic
  air campaigns that have thus far been waged, air
  power has never driven the masses into the
  streets to demand anything (Robert Pape)

77
Mogu li se teritorije kontrolisati iz vazduha?
78
V ??????????? ? 21. ?????
79

• ??? ??? ???? ???? ? ?????????? ???????? ????????,
  ????? ?? ????????? ? ??????? ?? ????????????
• ???????????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????????. ?? ?? ??
  ?? ???????
• ??????????? ??? ????????
• Today Geography has numerous dimensions, but it
  remains a great way to comprehend our complex
  world.

80
Yes, Geopolitics will matters also in the 21st
Century
81
VI ??????????

• Andreja Miletic, "Geopolitika", u, Milan Matic,
  Milan Podunavac, (Prir.), Enciklopedija politicke
  kulture, Savremena administracija, Beograd, 1993,
  str. 341- 345
• Branislav Matic, (Prir.), Tajna Balkana, SKC,
  Beograd, 1995, str. 55- 118.
• Zbignjev Beinski, Velika ahovska tabla, CID,
  Podgorica, 1999
• John J. Mearsheimer. The Tragedy of Great Power
  Politics, W. W. Norton, New York, 20031
• Kathleen E. Braden, Fred M. Shelley, Engaging
  Geopolitics, Pearson Education, New York, 2000,
  pp. 5-21
• Gearoid O. Tuathail, Simon Dalby, Paul
  Routledge, Eds., The Geopolitics Reader,
  Routledge, London, 2006, Second Edition
• Andrew Boyd, An Atlas of World Affairs,
  Routhledge, London, 1998, Tenth Edition
• Harm de Blij, Why Geography Matters three
  challenges facing America Climate Change, the
  Rise of China, and Global Terrorism, Oxford
  University Press, New York, 2005
• Martin Van Creveld, The Art of War War and
  Military Thought, Cassell Co., London, 2000
• John Baylis, Elliot Cohen, Colin Gray, James
  Wirtz, Eds, Strategy in the Contemporary World-
  An Introduction to Strategic Studies, Oxford
  University Press, New York, 2002

82
????? ?? ?????