Melbourne, 26th August 2004

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Melbourne, 26th August 2004
Climate Discussion for July 2004 Monthly
anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere
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Acknowledgements

• Some of the information was provided by the
  Argentine (www.meteofa.mil.ar ) and the Brazilian
  weather services (www.cptec.inpe.br and
  www.inmet.gov.br ), the Climate Studies Group of
  the University of Sao Paulo (www.grec.iag.usp.br
  ), the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia
  (www.bom.gov.au ), and some other sources
  (NCEP/NOAA, IRI and ECMWF).

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What is the purpose of this meeting?

• Discuss the relevant aspects of the climate
  during the last month in the Southern Hemisphere
• Increasing the collaboration between honours, PhD
  students and staff, contributing for a more
  exciting and productive environment
• Giving the Earth Sciences community the
  opportunity to participate and interact with us,
  if opening the meetings to everybody at a later
  stage.

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Important things to consider

• This is an informal meeting, it is NOT a
  traditional seminar
• Everyone is very welcome to interrupt at anytime
• Suggestion Alex can be in charge for the main
  presentation, but everybody from honours, PhD
  students and staff is very welcome to contribute
  and present additional features (e.g. next month
  there will be a presentation by Kevin Keay)
• Those who wish to help with the power point
  presentation are very welcome!

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Total Precipitation
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Precipitation Anomaly
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Minimum Temperature Anomaly
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Maximum Temperature Anomaly
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National Weather Service- Argentina Temperature
(left) and precipitation (right) anomaly
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OLR Anomaly
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OLR Anomaly (average 0/10S, Band Pass Filter for
30-60days)
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SST Anomaly
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SOI (1996-2004)
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El Niño Wrap-up (from BOM)

• El Niño Wrap-Up
• CURRENT STATUS as at 18th August 2004Next
  update expected by 25th August 2004 (one week
  after this update). The risk that we're seeing
  the beginnings of an El Niño event has increased
  during the past two weeks. Ocean surface
  temperatures remain significantly higher than
  average in the central Pacific Ocean, the SOI is
  persisting in negative values for the third
  successive month, and cloudiness has increased
  around the equatorial dateline. These are all
  classic signatures of a developing El Niño.
  However, the Trade Winds have returned to close
  to or a little stronger than average east of the
  dateline, after being strongly weaker than
  average during much of July. Subsurface
  temperatures seem to have responded to the
  increased winds with a decline in the strength of
  subsurface warming during the first two and a
  half weeks of August. The evolution of a westerly
  wind burst (WWB), presently over the western
  Pacific, could be crucial. If it fails to
  penetrate east of the dateline, conditions will
  remain delicately poised. However, a continued
  eastward propagation of the WWB, which would
  result in a renewed weakening of the central
  Pacific Trade Winds, may be sufficient to trigger
  an El Niño event. Computer model guidance
  indicates continued warmer than average
  conditions across the central Pacific. Even in
  the absence of a clearly defined El Niño event,
  this would be sufficient to increase the risk of
  areas of below average rainfall and above average
  temperatures persisting in parts of eastern
  Australia, especially when combined with negative
  SOI values.

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MSLP and anomaly
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NCEP
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Mean 850 hpa wind and anomaly
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500 hPa Geopotential Anomaly
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Mean 200 hPa wind and anomaly
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• Now lets see the forecasts...

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Conclusions

• Colder and wetter than normal in most of South
  America
• Australia slightly cooler than average to the
  south and warmer to the north (mostly dry)
• Suggestion that a weak El Niño might be back,
  with unfavorable conditions towards rainfall in
  eastern Australia during spring time.

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Next meetings...

• Alex will be in charge for the main part of the
  next presentations
• Additional features report for a damaging
  flooding in the UK (by Kevin Keay next month)
• Any volunteers to present additional things?
  (Suggestions Hurricane Charlie in Florida, or
  anything interesting around the world. Just send
  the ppt to Alex a couple of days before the
  meeting)
• We could have a public area for the power point
  or people could send the additional images direct
  to alex via e-mail
• Suggestions, comments, criticism, is it a bad or
  a good thing to have a climate discussion, or it
  doesnt matter at all?
• Is Thursday 02 PM a good time?

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Some feedback please...