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Post Carbon Cities Planning for Energy and
Climate Uncertainty
Daniel Lerch, Program Director
8 May 2009 Gaining Ground Summit, Calgary
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Post Carbon Cities guidebook
The first major guidebook for local govt on peak
oil and global warming.

• What are the challenges?
• Why should cities and towns act?
• What have some cities already done?
• What can local governments usefully do?

113 pages, 30.00 2nd printing May
2008 www.postcarboncities.net
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I. Whats happening?
I. Whats happening?
The fundamental factors of oil supply and
demand are changing.
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I. Whats happening?
The old assumptions no longer fit...
2008
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual
Energy Overview 2006, p.64
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I. Whats happening?
...which means we can no longer rely on the usual
experts'...
http//money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap
_oil/index.htm
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I. Whats happening?
...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see
the problems ahead.
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I. Whats happening?
II. The oil situation
Plateau ? Peak ? Does it matter?
A Summary of the Oil Situation(in four points)
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II. The oil situation
1a. SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS Conventional Oil
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II. The oil situation
1b. SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS Unconventional oil
Gap between Business-As-Usual Demandand
projected Supply
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II. The oil situation
2. DEMAND CONSTRAINTS West keeps growing,East
keeps modernizing
(cc) Proggie/Flickr
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II. The oil situation
3. OVERDEPENDENCE
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II. The oil situation
4. NO GOOD SUBSTITUTES
There is nothing of comparable versatility and
quantity ready to replace oil.
HYDROGEN
BIOFUELS
NUCLEAR
COAL
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III. The problem society faces
III. The problem society faces
What does this mean for the decisions we
make?(as households, businesses, governments)
Higher Oil Prices Oil Price / Supply Volatility
Declining Supply Rising Demand
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III. The problem society faces
This complicates our assumptionsthat oil will
continue to be...
...available...
...and affordable.
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III. The problem society faces
What does this mean for government
decision-makers?
Peaking of World Oil Production Impacts,
Mitigation and Risk Management Prepared for the
U.S. Department of Energyby Robert Hirsch, SAIC,
et al, 2005

• Timely, aggressive mitigation...

• At least a decade of intense, expensive effort

• Intervention by governments necessary because the
  economic social implications would otherwise
  be chaotic

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III. The problem society faces
Peak oil... when?
OCTOBER 2007, Post Carbon Cities...we seem to
be facing an undulating plateau of world oil
production from 2007 onward, with permanent
decline likely underway by 2010.
OCTOBER 2008, Richard Heinbergs blogLack of
investment in new production projects, plus
ongoing depletion and rising decline rates,
probably ensure that weve now seen the all-time
peak. It was in July 2008.
http//postcarbon.org/wither_oil_prices
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IV. The problem for cities
IV. The problem for cities
Why is this a problem at the local level?(in
three points)
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IV. The problem for cities
1. Price volatility of goods
The Oregonian, 25 January 2008
Knoxville News Sentinel, 6 September 2006
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IV. The problem for cities
2. Potential for shortages and emergencies
The New York Times, 1 September 2005
The Guardian, 12 June 2008
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IV. The problem for cities
3. Long-term economic shifts

• How will the global economy adjust? (global
  trade flows)

• How will this impact regional and local
  economies? (relative advantage provisioning
  systems)

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IV. The problem for cities
How can cities...

• set meaningful budgets
• make long-range land use and transportation
  plans
• serve residents and the local business community
• ...with such uncertainty surrounding the most
  important material to our global, regional and
  local economies?

Energy Uncertainty
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V. Whats happening?
V. Whats happening?
Some of the fundamental factors that
influence the global climate are changing.
GHG concentrations are up dramatically, and
RISING.
The average global temperature is rising, with
uncertain consequences.
?
?

• Prior and continuning industrialization.
• 16 years since Earth Summit, little to show for
  it.

• Local effects? Economic effects?
• Trigger points? Feedback loops?

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V. Whats happening?
CAUSES The debate is over...

• For us, as a company, the scientific debate
  about climate change is over. The debate now is
  about what we can do about it.- Jeroen van der
  Veer, Chief Executive, Shell
• http//www.shell.com/home/content/responsible_ener
  gy

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V. Whats happening?
URGENCY ...changes are already happening...
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V. Whats happening?
URGENCY ...and we have less than 8 years to get
emissions in decline.
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VI. Why is this a problem for cities?
VI. Why is this a problem for cities?
Economic, social, environmental...

• Dependency

• Short-term challenges

• Long-term challenges

Climate Uncertainty
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Why is this a problem for cities?
VI. Why is this a problem for cities?
The Climate-Peak Convergence
Energy and Climate Uncertainty
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VII. What are cities already doing?
VII. What are cities already doing?
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VII. What are cities already doing?
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VII. What are cities already doing?
Official Statement
Internal Report
Marrickville, NSWChapel Hill, N.C.Nottigham,
U.K.
Burnaby, B.C. Darebin, Vc.Maribyrnong, Vic.
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VII. What are cities already doing?
Resolution which creates...
...a Task Force.
Portland, Ore.Oakland, Calif.Bloomington, Ind.
San Francisco, Calif.Austin, Tex.Brisbane, QLD
Spokane, Wash.Bristol, U.K.Alachua Cty., Fla
Bellingham, Wash.Lawrence, Kan.Westerly, R.I.
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VII. What are cities already doing?
Portland (Ore.) Peak Oil Task Force

• 12 members vetted by City Council
• Split up into four subgroups
• In 6 months, meetings with over 80 stakeholders

Land Use / Transportation
Economy
Public and Social Services
Food Agriculture
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VII. What are cities already doing?
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VII. What are cities already doing?
Descending the Oil Peak Navigating the
Transition from Oil and Natural Gas, Portland
(Oregon) Peak Oil Task Force, March 2007 online
at www.portlandonline.com/osd.
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VII. What are cities already doing?
Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Two Pillars and 11 Recommendations
ReduceExposure
StrengthenCommunity
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VII. What are cities already doing?

1. Reduce total oil and natural gas
consumption... by 50 percent over the next 25
years. 2, 3. Educate and engage the public and
leadersInform citizens about peak oil and foster
community and community-based solutions. Educate
and engage business, government and community
leaders to initiate policy change.
Recommendations of the Portland Peak Oil Task
Force
Reduce Exposure
Strengthen Community
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VII. What are cities already doing?

1. Land use and transportation connectionSupport
   land use patterns that reduce transportation
   needs...

(cc) dmkphotography / Flickr
5, 6. Transportation infrastructure and
choicesDesign infrastructure to promote
transportation options and facilitate efficient
movement of freight...
Reduce Exposure
Strengthen Community
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VII. What are cities already doing?

7. Energy-efficient buildings Expand building
energy-efficiency programs and incentives for
all new and existing structures. 8. Farmland and
foodPreserve farmland and expand local food
production and processing. 9. The Green
EconomyIdentify and promote sustainable
business opportunities.
Reduce Exposure
Strengthen Community
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VII. What are cities already doing?

10. Social safety netRedesign the safety net
and protect vulnerable and marginalized
populations. 11. Emergency PlanningPrepare
emergency plans for sudden and severe shortages.
Andrew Zahn, www.poex.org
Reduce Exposure
Strengthen Community
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VII. What are cities already doing?
What had Portland BEEN doing?

• Most green buildings in US (LEED)
• Highest per capita hybrid auto ownership in US
• Transit ridership up 85
• Bike trips over bridges quintupled
• Vehicle miles traveled decreased 7 per capita
• Gasoline sales down 13 per capita
• Household energy down 5 per capita
• City energy-efficiency projects saving 2.6M/yr
• Recycling rate more than tripled

Portland Office of Sustainable Development
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VII. What are cities already doing?
Portland Office of Sustainable Development
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
The goal
The post carbon city is a city on a path of
resilience for a world of energy climate
uncertainty.
How do we get there?
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
The Five Long-term Principles
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
1. Deal with transportation and land use (or
you may as well stop now).
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
1. Deal with transportation and land use (or
you may as well stop now).continued...
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
2. Tackle private energy consumption.
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
3. Attack the problems piece-by-piece and from
many angles.
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
4. Plan for fundamental changes... andmake
fundamental changes happen.
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
5. Build a sense of community(build social
resilience).
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VIII. Getting to the post carbon city
5. Build a sense of community(build social
resilience).
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30.00 USD / CADQuantity discounts available
Post Carbon Cities book and program Daniel
Lerch, Program Director www.postcarboncities.net
daniel_at_postcarbon.org