Title: Enskilda Securities Nordic Seminar 2005 20. januar 2005 Kjell Aamot CEO
1Enskilda Securities Nordic Seminar 200520.
januar 2005 Kjell AamotCEO
2Q3 Highlights
- Schibsteds best Q3 ever
- Strong development for online activities
continues - Record-high results in Aftonbladet
- Good development in 20 Minutes continues
- Growth in the recruitment market Aftenposten
proceeds to deliver improved results - Solid results for VG even with a somewhat weaker
circulation - Weak quarter for TV-production, while Sandrew
Metronome and Publishing have improved Q3 results
from last year
3History
1999
2003
1836
1992
1989
New growth?
Established
Restructuring
Focus consolidation
Consolidation
Growth expansion
Listed on Oslo Stock Exchange
4Strategy
- Previous announced strategy to be continued
financials and market position enables increased
focus on growth - Growth through both acquisitions and organic
growth - The Groups strong position and competitive
advantages as a basis - Acquisitions complementing and strengthening
already existing positions - New media and free newspaper engagements
- Financial targets unchanged
5Financial targets over a business cycle
EBITA-margin 12
EBITDA-margin 16
Return on equity 22
Return on assets 15
Long term target for organic profitable growth 7
Equity ratio 35 (min. 25)
Net interest bearing debt/EBITDA 3
Minimum net cashflow from operations after maintenance capex (before dividend) NOK 400 million
6Stand by strategic position as of 1995
Strong Brands Content Know-how Marketing
Capacity Strong Cash Flow Execution Skills
Online Platforms
Off-line Positions
New Business Opportunities
Newspapers TV-production Publishing Film Rights
Internet (www) Mobile Internet Broadband
Build on core activities for continuous
development
7Circulation decline puts pressure on the
newspapers and emphasizes the need to create new
platforms for growth
- Development of number of sold copies per capita
(1999-2003)
Finland
Ireland
2,2
USA
Island
Belgium
Portugal
Austria
Greece
Denmark
Germany
Norway
France
Italy
Sweden
Spain
Switzerland
Luxemburg
Netherlands
UK
29,2
Source World Association of Newspapers, Global
insight
8(No Transcript)
9Strategic repositioning
Elektronic media
2004
Newspapers
1995
Norway Scandinavia Europe
Geographic focus area
10The great conserns in 2001
Online
11Value trigers at the end of 2004
m.fl.
12(No Transcript)
13A 20 Minutes edition goes through three phases
Distribution audience Revenues
Phase 1 Optimize circulation
Phase 2 Readership growth
Phase 3 Revenue growth
Time
14Circulation development
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Lille Lyon Marseille
Luzern
Malaga
Toulouse Bordeaux
Madrid Barcelone
Valence Alicante
Bern Basle
Paris
Sevilla
Zaragoza
Zurich
15The development of 10 13 year olds, who read a
newspaper more than once per week (Switzerland)
German-speaking Switzerland
10 13 years
100 50
Before 20minutes
85
75
After 20minutes
25
1997
2001
2002
Source Special survey Kids News
20 Minuten und die Kids
16And the concept is proving itself by attracting
advertisers targeting the young, problematic
readers!
CocaCola on a front page ad!
17Online
18Share of online activities increasesNOK million
For the year of 2001 the online activities had an
operating loss incl. restructuring costs of NOK
-171 million
Accumulated EBITA as of Q3 2004 of NOK 119 million
19Financials 2000 2004
NOK million
36
33
24
-42
-10
As of 30 September 2004
20- Successful launch of the new format
- The positive development within recruitment ads
continues - Operating profit (EBITA) in the newspaper
improved by NOK 25 million from Q3 last year
(adjusted for royalty) - Revenue development in ad markets in Q3 compared
to the corresponding period last year - Recruitment 14.5
- Real estate - 19.3
- High turnover of properties as well as more
objects sold directly from the Internet - Brand/display - 2
- Supplements 50
21Pricing in the new Aftenposten
Focus moved from modular to fraction of
page Developed in close cooperation with
advertisers
- New pricing model will be introduced based on
response and effect - The response of a tabloid full page is close to
the response of a full page in broadsheet.
Therefore priced to 75-85 of full page in
broadsheet - Response increases non-proportional with the size
of the ad reflected in prices - Introducing a new measurement method for ad
effects
Brand/display ads
- No short term impact
- Positive long term impacts due to new readers
- Competitive advantage, especially towards TV
Classified ads
- Prises mainly unchanged, discount on larger ads,
like for brand/display ads. Differenciated
pricing of recruitement ads
- Same model as the morning edition
Evening issue
22Migration of classified advertising Real estate
Number of ads, 12-month rolling average
23Migration of classified advertising Recruitment
Number of ads, 12-month rolling average
24The steady cash cows
25Readership on- and offline
Daily readership, thousands
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
26Readership on- and offline
Daily readership, thousands
1,655
1,571
1,522
1,481
1,403
1,392
1,391
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
Source Gallup 96/97 represents Forbruker
Media 02/97
27Alma Media
28Alma Media Corporation Alma Media Group
BROAD- CASTING
ALPRESS
BIG
MEDIA SERVICES
GROUP ADMINISTRATION
ILTALEHTI
MTV3
KAUPPALEHTI
CLASSIFIED SERVICES
AAMULEHTI
SUBTV
BALANCE CONSULTING
ALMA MEDIA INFORMATION SYS.
SATAKUNNAN KANSA
NEW VENTURES
RADIO NOVA (74)
BALTIC NEWS SERVICE
MTV Interactive
LEHDENTEKIJÄT
LAPIN KANSA
ACTA PRINT (36)
STARFUNDS FINLAND (51)
POHJOLAN SANOMAT
TV4 (23,4)
KAINUUN SANOMAT
TALENTUM (31,7)
SUOMEN PAIKALLISSANOMAT
29Strategic fit
- Strategic principles for growth
- Within the core operations
- Mainly within areas that will reduce the
dependency on business cycles - Strategic control possible over time
- Synergies with existing operations
- Complementary geographic exposure to Schibsted
- Advanced in new media MTV3.fi is the largest
media site in Finland - Limited exposure to offline classifieds, but a
strong online presence within real estate and
cars - Stronger than Schibsted in TV
The two companies have similar business, with
Alma being stronger in TV, and complementary
geographic presence
30Schibsteds run for Alma Media
- During the summer Schibsted conducted
negotiations with the larges institutional owners
in Finland to buy 34 of the votes. - Not able to agree on the conditions
- The negotiations probably reached Bonnier
- A second attempt to buy the institutions holdings
during the fall/winter did not result in a deal - Schibsted decidet it was no longer fruitfull to
wait, a bid for Alma Media was launched on the
21th of December - The offer was 11,40 for series 1 and 10,70 for
series 2, a premium of 55 and 35 on the
12-month volume-weighted average trading price
31Broadcasting is the gemstone of Alma Media
- Schibsted key interest is the broadcasting
division - The board initiated a process to restructure the
Broadcasting division in November. - Some likely buyers were contacted. Schibsted was
for some reason not contacted. - Potential buyers signed the NDA almost
immediately after Schibsteds offer was announced.
- Our Tender Offer puts us in a difficult position.
32Share price of Alma Media, Series 1
33What happens now ?
- Schibsted may withdraw the offer
- The MAC will probably be invoced
- Schibsted completes the tender offer
- If acceptance is more than 33,3, Schibsteed
becomes a major owner of Alma - If accemptance is bellow 33,3, Schibsted may
choose to accept the shares offered. - Schibsted is comfortable with the holdings in
TV4. Could be of strategic value depending on the
outcome of the Broadcasting sale in Alma Media. - Schibsted may choose to place a bid for Almas TV4
shares separately
34Outlook
- Positive expectations to Aftenposten in relation
to the change to tabloid format - The tabloids are expected to continue to deliver
strong results - Further challenges for Svenska Dagbladet
- A good Q4 in 20 Minutes expected, increased
competition - Positive development for the online activities
expected to represent approx. 20 of the Groups
operating profit (EBITA) - Improved outlook for TV/Film
- Parliaments report regarding new media
legislation represents small improvements for
Schibsted
35Appendices
36Ownership structure in Nordic TV
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
TV 2
TV 4
TV 2
MTV 3
Other
Egmont
Schibsted
Proventus
Bonnier
Alma Media
Schibsted
A-Pressen
The Government
Alma Media
TV Norge
Kanal5
TVDanmark 12
Nelonen 4
Other
Sanoma
SBS
SBS
SBS
SBS
TV 3
TV 3
TV 3
MTG
MTG
MTG
MTG
37Operating profit (loss) (EBITA) Newspapers
Q3 Q3 1) Figures in NOK million 2) Figures in SEK million As of Sept 30 As of Sept 30
2003 2004 1) Figures in NOK million 2) Figures in SEK million 2004 2003 2003
(28) (10) Aftenposten 1) 104 46 66
105 109 VG 1) 291 299 355
0 (13) Svenska Dagbladet 2) (25) 9 12
56 87 Aftonbladet 2) 227 158 211
38- Number of unique users improved by 53 in
September - Record of more than 100,000 active ads
simultaneously and 1,365,000 unique users in
September - Operating profit (EBITA) in Q3 of NOK 17 million
(NOK 15 million) - Turnover improved by 29 to NOK 44 million in Q3
- Recruitment 33
- Real estate 18
- Cars 50
- Continued strong growth and increased traffic
within all segments
39- Solid results and the success on the net
continues - Schibsteds most profitable company (nominal
terms) - Operating revenues and EBITA-margin in Q3 at same
levels as last year - Circulation on weekdays reduced by 3.7 as of
September compared to same time last year - Maintains its strong market share
- Operating margin (EBITA) of 25 (2) for the
online newspaper in Q3
40- Low ad revenues continues to weaken the result
- Ad revenues in Q3 reduced from the corresponding
period last year to SEK 65 million (SEK 85
million) - Positive development in circulation revenues -
amounts to SEK 96 million (SEK 92 million) - The tough competition in Stockholm continues
- No negative effects so far for SvD from the
change of Dagens Nyheter to tabloid format - SvD.se with a postitive development record high
number of uniqe visitors in September of 643,000 - New SvD a further upgrade of the editorial
product will be launched on November 8th
41- Record-high results in Aftonbladet
- Operating revenues increased by 15 compared to
Q3 2003 - Operating margin (EBITA) of 16 (12) in Q3
- Circulation on weekdays increased by 3,300 copies
from last year - The gap towards Expressen was 94,400 by the end
of September - Continues to take market shares in the
advertising market - Ad revenues increased by 83 to SEK 153 million
in Q3 incl. online activities
42- Aftonbladet strengthenes its online position
- Online activities comprises now of Aftonbladet
Nya Medier, Blocket.se and BytBil (as of July 1st
2004) - Represents 33 (15) of Aftonbladets total ad
revenues in Q3 - Increased gap compared to the amount of visitors
of the main competitors - Development of new products continues, e.g. paid
services like the Weight Club and Plus
43Operating profit (EBITA) TV/Film Publishing
Q3 Q3 1) Figures in NOK million 2) Figures in SEK million As of Sept 30 As of Sept 30
2003 2004 1) Figures in NOK million 2) Figures in SEK million 2004 2003 2003
(4) (10) Metronome 2) 9 25 56
(16) 8 Sandrew Metronome 2) ) (8) 1 41
8 11 Publishing 1) 13 17 35
11 4 TV 2 Group 1) ) (EBIT) 45 104 195
) Figures for 100 of Sandrew Metronome Group.
Schibsted owns 50 of the company ) Schibsted
owns 33.3 of the company
44- Operating revenues in line with last year, but
weaker results - Disappointing results from the major focus on
interactive TV in Norway, Sweden and Estonia
the expected positive development in Q3 did not
occur - Turn around in the Norwegian production company
Rubicon after decreasing order quantity and
negative development. New management in place in
Q3, but 2004 is not expected to be a good year - The Swedish TV production operations of Metronome
maintains a solid market position, but margins
squeezed due to severe competition
45- Substantial improvement in results compared to
last year - Improved results in both the cinema and
distribution operations compared to last year - Positive development within domestic films,
especially in Norway and Sweden - Competition authorities finishes review of the
sale of cinemas in Sweden in December/January - Blockbusters Harry Potter III and Troia on
DVD/video in Q4 - New distribution agreement with Warner as of June
2005 reorganization of the video/DVD
distribution of Sandrew Metronome - Distribution of Warners and SMs films operated
by Warner - Warner responsible for sales and logistics
- No influence on SMs distribution of Warners
cinema films in the Nordic countries
46- Improved operating profit and generally stable
operations - Coordination of operations and resources in the
merged Norwegian publishing houses proceeds
according to plan - Profit improvement in Q3 despite logistical
problems throughout main parts of the year due to
sale of international books - Improved sale of Norwegian books in an overall
decreasing market for books so far this year - Stable circulation figures of the magazines Dine
Penger, Maison and 4U and Pondus close to a
monthly sale of 70,000 copies - Q4 is the most important quarter in terms of book
sales expectations associated with the new
books Pondus and Petter Solberg
47TV Group
- Olympics and Kanal 24 with negative influence on
Q3 results - Increased costs due to broadcasting of summer
olympics - Operating profit for the TV channel in Q3 of NOK
6 million (NOK 22 million) - The subsidiaries TV 2 Nettavisen og TV 2
Interaktiv delivers improved operating profits of
NOK 0 million (NOK -4 million) and NOK 1 million
(NOK -3 million) in Q3 - Sale of share in TVNorge gives a profit of NOK
82.7 million - Further write down of TV 2s investment in Kanal
24 is by NOK 60 million in Q3 total exposure
for TV 2 is presently close to NOK 55 million
48Income statement Schibsted Group
49Advertising Paper Editions
1) Column meters 2) SEK million
50Development in real estate and recruitment
markets (rolling 12 months)
51Quarterly revenues from classified advertising
NOK million
52Operating profit (loss) Online activities
Includes FINN, Bytbil, Mediearkivene and
Retriever. Finnmer/Blocket is included from Q3
2003. The results are included in the Newspaper
division.
53Multimedia Operating profit (loss) (EBITA)
54Associated companies
Schibsteds share
55Operating profit (loss) proforma
20 Minutes is consolidated as a subsidiary from 1
March 2004. Figures include 20 Minutes Group
(Switzerland and Spain) as well as 50 of 20
Minutes France.
56Growth in all markets
- Positive operating profit (EBITA) despite a
seasonally weak quarter - EUR 0.4 million in Q3
- Close down of operations in Spain and France
during the vacation period - Largest newspaper in Switzerland with 782,000
daily readers (Blick 736,000 readers) - 46.5 of readers in the age of 14 to 34 years
- Expect stronger competition from established
players in Spain - Not yet included in official readership surveys
in France - influences revenues negatively - may
delay break-even - Launches in Bordeaux and Toulouse in September
with circulation of approx. 30,000 copies in each
city
57Operating revenues and profit development
58Key financial figures
- Net interest bearing debt
- Holdings of own shares are offset against equity
- LTM
59Financial items
60Cash Flow / Investments
61Balance sheet
62IFRS
- Standards and interpretations of these might be
changed - Expect to choose solutions creating minimum
differences where options exist (accounting
principles and transitional provisions) - Business combinations / Goodwill
- No amortisation of goodwill
- Goodwill may have to be reclassified to and be
amortised as Other intangible assets - Limited requirements to reclassify goodwill
acquired prior to 01.01.2004 - Amortisation in 2004 related to goodwill acquired
prior to Jan 01, 2004 of approx. NOK 60 million
63IFRS contd
- Pensions
- Limited effect on profits and equity expected for
Norwegian plans, cf. immaterial actuarial gains /
losses as of Dec 31, 2003 - Uncertainty regarding accounting practice for
Swedish plans - Share based payment
- Expensing of fair value of options with expected
impact on profits of NOK 1-3 million (2004) - Dividends
- Timing of recognition as liability / increased
equity at year end
64Circulation development YTD
- Figures in NOK million
- Figures in SEK million
65Operating profit (loss)
66Actual results vs. analysts expectations
67Cash flow
68Newspapers Operating profit (loss)
69Operating profit (loss)
The operating profit (loss) is for the
Aftenposten Group.
70Operating profit the newspaper
Figures for Aftenposten AS (the newspaper)
71Advertising revenue split
The figures are for the newspaper Aftenposten AS.
72Pricing in the new Aftenposten
Focus moved from modular to fraction of
page Developed in close cooperation with
advertisers
- New pricing model will be introduced based on
response and effect - The response of a tabloid full page is close to
the response of a full page in broadsheet.
Therefore priced to 75-85 of full page in
broadsheet - Response increases non-proportional with the size
of the ad reflected in prices - Introducing a new measurement method for ad
effects
Brand/display ads
- No short term impact
- Positive long term impacts due to new readers
- Competitive advantage, especially towards TV
Classified ads
- Prises mainly unchanged, discount on larger ads,
like for brand/display ads. Differenciated
pricing of recruitement ads
- Same model as the morning edition
Evening issue
73Operating profit
74Operating profit
The operating profit includes VG AS, VG
Multimedia AS and Avisretur AS
75Operating profit
The operating profit is for the Aftonbladet Group
76Circulation 2000 2004
Per publishing day
Circulation
Gap
77Operating profit
The operating profit (loss) is for the Svenska
Dagbladet Group
78Operating profit
79Advertising development regional newspapers
Figures represent volume measured in column
meters, excl. supplements
80The Baltics
ŽLG
- Operating profit (EBITA) in Q3 of NOK 2 million
(3 million) - Turnover growth of 15 in Q3
- Generally weak ad market in Q3
- Printing plant problems due to new equipment not
yet solved - Kanal 2 has success with the relaunched news as
of August market leader in Prime Time - Stable good operation for the magazines in
Lithuania - Relaunch of magazine in August reduces the result
81ŽLG
Operating profit Baltics
GW Goodwill
82Operating profit Baltics
GW Goodwill
Exchange rate NOK / EEK 53.87 50.65
51.13
83Operating profit (loss) TV/Film
GW Goodwill
84Operating profit
Accounts for Metronome Group. 100 is included in
the consolidated accounts. Schibsted owns 65
GW Goodwill
85 Operating profit
Accounts for the Sandrew Metronome Group.
Schibsted owns 50 of the Group. 50 is included
in the consolidated accounts for Schibsted.
86Operating profit (loss) TV
Group
Accounts for the TV 2 Group. Schibsted owns 33.3
of the company
87Operating profit Publishing
GW Goodwill
88Our markets
- Norway
- VG no. 1 newspaper
- Aftenposten leading morning newspaper
- Finn.no no. 1 classifieds portal
- Sandrew Metronome movie distribution/production
- Scanpix picture agency
- Bokkilden Internet bookstore
- Schibsted Mobile mobile services
- Schibsted Forlagene publishing house
- TV 2 no. 1 commercial TV-channel
- Sweden
- Aftonbladet - no. 1 newspaper in the Nordic
area - Svenska Dagbladet leading morning newspaper
- Blocket no. 1 classifieds portal
- Sandrew Metronome movie distribution/production
- Metronome tv/film production
- Schibsted Mobile mobile services
- Estonia
- Eesti Meedia media group
- Kanal 2 leading commercial TV-channel
- Latvia/Lithuania
- Schibsted Mobile mobile services
- ZLG -- publishing house
89Schibsted historical development
- 1839 Chr. Schibsted Forlag (publishing house)
founded - 1860 Christiania Adresseblad launched in Oslo
renamed Aftenposten in 1861 - 1966 Takeover of VG
- 1989 Reorganisation from a private family company
to a limited company - 1992 Listing at the Oslo Stock Exchange with a
growth strategy declaration - 1992 First TV and film investments
- 1995 First New Media/Internet investments
- 1995 First investments in Kanal 2 in Estonia
- 1996 Acquisition of Aftonbladet
- 1998 Acquisition of Svenska Dagbladet
- 1998 Investment in Eesti Meedia Group
- 1999 Launch of the free newspaper concept 20
Minutes
90Development of the largest online newspapers in
Norway
Unique monthly visitors, figures in thousands
VG
TV 21)
Dagbladet
Aftenposten
Nettavisen2)
Note 1996-2001 calculated based on weekly
visitors 1) Includes TV 2 and Nettavisen 2) Nett
avisen reported separately until September
2003 Source Gallup RedMeasure
91Norway top list unique visitors March 2004
92Aftonbladet unique visitors (monthly)
Source WIS - figures in thousands
93Web Addresses www.schibsted.no
www.20min.fr www.20minutos.es www.ntb.no www.scanp
ix.com www.picturegate.com www.tt.se www.tv2.no ww
w.nettavisen.no ww.sandrewmetronome.se www.sandrew
metronome.dk www.sandrewmetronome.no www.sandrewme
tronome.fi www.kinopalatsi.fi www.metronome.se www
.meterfilm.se www.mekano.se www.mekaniken.se www.f
ilmlance.se www.rubicontv.no www.nordicent.no www.
moland.com www.metronome.dk
www.bsl.dk www.bullet.dk www.metronome.fi www.euro
peanfilmgroup.com www.bigbrother.no www.svenskafor
laget.com www.schibsted-forlag.no www.sch-ib.no ww
w.bladkompaniet.no www.dinepenger.no www.inpoc.com
www.bokkilden.no www.primetime.net www.dagensmedi
sin.no www.tique.no European Media Ventures
companies www.skiinfo.no www.startsiden.no www
.huginonline.no www.datek.no www.basefarm.no
www.aftenposten.no www.finn.no www.mediearkivet.no
www.oslopuls.no www.di.no www.vg.no www.avis1.no
www.aftonbladet.se www.blocket.se www.mediearkivet
.se www.svd.se www.postimees.ee www.sloleht.ee www
.kroonika.ee www.kanal2.ee www.adresseavisen.no ww
w.trondheimpuls.no www.bergens-tidende.no www.berg
enpuls.no www.aftenbladet.no www.stavangerpuls.no
www.fedrelandsvennen.no www.20min.ch
94(No Transcript)
95Top 20 shareholders
Number of shares outstanding3 69,250,000 Number
of shareholders 4,790 Foreign
ownership 44.1
1) The company is buying via nominee
accounts. Their holdings may appear twice if
the buy via others on the list 2) As of Sept
10, 2004 3) 1,380,470 of these shares owned
by Schibsted ASA
96Investor Information
- Please visit Schibsteds home pages
- www.schibsted.no
- Register to subscribe to press releases
- Catharina Thorenfeldt. VP IR Group Treasurer
- catharina.thorenfeldt_at_schibsted.no
- Elisabeth Blom Tindlund. Investor Relations
Officer - elisabeth.blom.tindlund_at_schibsted.no
- Tel 47 23106600