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Positioned for Continued Growth

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... popular data services are SMS and ringtones, but starting to see impact of short ... We expect to continue growing EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and free cash flow. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Positioned for Continued Growth


1
  • Positioned for Continued Growth
  • January 10, 2007

2
Agenda
  • Dobson, the wireless industry and its growth
    outlook
  • Operating improvements and organic growth
    opportunities
  • Growth through expansion and M A
  • Balance sheet opportunities to create additional
    value

3
  • Introduction and Growth Outlook

4
Overview
Dobson is the 3rd largest GSM wireless provider
in the US, primarily serving rural markets.
  • 1.6M subscribers in markets that cover 12.4
    million POPs
  • 1.2B Revenue for past 12 months
  • 435M to 445M expected EBITDA for 2006
  • Strong spectrum position
  • Strengthened management team

5
Wireless industry has strong growth outlook
  • The US wireless industry is expected to grow at a
    5 CAGR over the next 5 years.
  • Dobson markets are more rural and less penetrated
    than the national average.
  • Within Dobsons markets, there are typically
    fewer competitors than U.S. average.
  • Dobsons strong spectrum position is
    predominantly 850 MHz spectrum, which is more
    efficient in rural markets.
  • MSA average spectrum holdings 59 MHz
  • RSA average spectrum holdings 49 MHz

Wireless industry analyst reports.
6
  • Operating Improvements
  • and
  • Organic Growth

7
2006 Operating focus
  • Grow our subscriber base through increased sales,
    reduced churn
  • Improve the Dobson customer experience through
    strengthened network coverage and improved
    customer care
  • Strengthen marketing, sales and customer care
    management and operations
  • Substantially complete the migration of our
    customer base to GSM
  • Increase ARPU
  • Strengthen roaming relationships with our key GSM
    partners
  • Grow EBITDA and free cash flow

8
Top-line growth Increased postpaid gross
subscriber adds
  • Stronger leadership in marketing and sales, and
    revamped sales organization with channel
    ownership
  • Attractive, differentiated calling plans, such as
    statewide unlimited, that have generated
    increased store traffic
  • Improved customer experience on enhanced network
  • Results
  • Consistently improved gross adds
  • 6.2 YOY gross adds growth in 3Q06
  • 8.6 YOY increase in postpaid gross adds for 3Q06

(000s)
9
Top-line growth Subscriber growth as churn
declines
  • Strengthened network
  • Lower churn due to increasingly satisfied
    customers -- quicker, more responsive customer
    service and more proactive lifetime customer
    management program
  • 86.4 of postpaid customers under contract
  • Results
  • Added 43,300 customers through first three
    quarters of 2006
  • Reduced postpaid churn below targeted goal of 2
  • Customer Satisfaction Score improves for second
    consecutive year

10
Top-line growth ARPU growth
  • Gains related to increased data usage and
    incremental ETC.
  • Statewide unlimited calling plans have been
    accretive to ARPU.
  • We continue to strengthen the data platform with
    new services and data devices.
  • Most popular data services are SMS and ringtones,
    but starting to see impact of short-code
    campaigns.
  • Results
  • 3Q06 YOY increase in ARPU of 2.39, or 5.1
  • 3Q06 Data ARPU was 8.8 of total ARPU, vs. 4.2
    in 1Q05
  • Data ARPU has increased 138 since 1Q05

ARPU
4.34
Data ARPU
3.79
3.34
2.90
2.56
2.18
1.82
11
Top-line revenue growth expected to continue
Service Revenue
  • Top-line revenue growth in 2006 has resulted from
    increasing subscribers and ARPU.
  • Subscriber reductions from 1Q to 4Q05, offsetting
    ARPU growth.
  • Increased subs and ARPU in 2006 has strengthened
    service revenue growth.
  • 86 of our subscriber base is now GSM, and 90 of
    our postpaid base.

(Millions)
Subscriber gains
232
Net subscriber reductions
223
221
216
216
215
206
12
Roaming revenue growth from increased MOUs
  • 3Q Roaming revenue was 87.4M, a YOY increase of
    8.6.
  • 846M MOUs, 10.3-cent yield
  • Roaming MOUs 32 higher YTD
  • T-Mobile MOUs growing faster than Cingular
  • January 2007 and 2008 step-downs in contract
    roaming rates will be smaller than that of
    January 2006.

(Millions)
395M
13
Strengthened EBITDA growth
  • 3Q EBITDA was 124.7M, an increase of 4.4 YOY.
  • 3Q 2006 EBITDA higher despite
  • Increased gross adds
  • 1.8M in new stock options expense
  • Significant step-down in roaming yield in January
    2006
  • Additional operating costs from 264 cell sites
    built since 3Q 2005
  • Additional operating costs from AK, PA and TX
    markets acquired since 3Q 2005
  • 2006 EBITDA guidance is 435M to 445M.

EBITDA Growth
(Millions)
14
  • Growth through Expansion and MA

15
Strategic acquisitions support Dobsons growth
  • MA focused on strategic assets at attractive
    values.
  • A potential acquisition should improve current
    cluster economics.
  • More valuable footprint to local customers
  • Reduced off-network (incollect) costs
  • Additional scale-efficiencies to Dobson
  • Prefer 850 MHz spectrum in rural areas
  • Accretive to current operations
  • Highland Cellular, Texas 15 Alaska acquisitions
    illustrate this strategy.
  • Expect 20M in total 2007 EBITDA from 2006
    acquisitions
  • Total purchase price of 123M, or 6.2X forward
    EBITDA

16
AWS auction objectives and results
  • Goal Add spectrum over current footprint,
    especially in critical markets.
  • We acquired 20 MHz of spectrum over 81 of our
    existing footprint, including such critical areas
    as Orange County, Poughkeepsie, Eastern WI and
    Minnesota.
  • Goal Add spectrum in adjacent markets with
    strong community of interest.
  • We acquired AWS spectrum over 10.8M POPs in
    markets such as Buffalo, Rochester, Lexington and
    West Virginia.
  • We expect our spectrum to be cleared for use in
    late-2007 to mid-2008.
  • Goal Pursue a broad mobility strategy, leading
    to multi-band GSM phones with nationwide
    coverage.
  • Cingular and T-Mobile were active bidders for AWS
    spectrum.
  • Goal Purchase spectrum at attractive values.
  • Dobson paid 65.9M for 85 licenses average price
    of 0.16 per MHz/POP.

17
Value of AWS spectrum affirmed by national
carriers
  • Cingular paid 1.3B for 48 licenses, validating
    the significance of AWS spectrum to GSM providers
    and handset manufacturers.
  • Cingular and T-Mobile focused on markets that are
    urban, outside Dobson footprint, and that would
    be well-served by our roaming relationships.
  • T-Mobile was the only national provider that
    purchased AK spectrum (only 10 MHz).
  • Leap and Metro PCS focused on top-50 metro
    markets.

18
Growth opportunities Technology evolution
  • Continued strengthening of data platform and our
    network should enable us to continue growing data
    ARPU and data roaming traffic.
  • Plans moving forward to field-test 3G
    technologies, but final decision on deployment
    and timing is dependent on roaming traffic and
    consumer demand for advanced services.
  • We dont expect significant 3G investment in
    2007.
  • Subsequent to the AWS auction and previous
    lease/purchases, we have spectrum to deploy
    future technologies.

19
  • Balance Sheet Opportunities to Create Additional
    Value

20
Capital structure at Nov. 14, 2006
Goals
Dobson Communications Corporation 160M
Convertible senior debentures 150M Floating
rate notes 420M 8.875 Senior notes 136M
Series F convertible preferred
  • Reduce overall leverage
  • Reduce average cost of debt
  • Maintain adequate liquidity
  • Provide for maximum flexibility

Dobson Cellular Systems Inc. 500M 1st Lien
8.375 Secured Notes 325M 2nd Lien 9.875
Secured Notes 75M Undrawn revolver
American Cellular Corporation 125M Secured Term
Loan Credit Facility 900M 10 Senior Notes 18M
9.5 Senior Sub. Notes 75M Undrawn term
loan 50M Undrawn revolver
21
Value opportunities Balance sheet
  • Strong track record of reducing leverage.
  • Refinanced most expensive debt in the last 12
    months and still have strong liquidity available
    to further strengthen our balance sheet -- 200M
    in undrawn facilities companywide.
  • We are focused on reducing leverage and taking
    debt off our balance sheet to create additional
    shareholder value.
  • No near-term amortization
  • Average cost of debt is 8.3, down from 8.9 12
    months ago.
  • Starting in 2007, opportunities improve to
    refinance and reduce cost of debt.
  • 1.1B of highest cost debt callable in 2007
    (900M in 10 notes)
  • Additional 1.2B in debt callable in 2008

Call and Maturity Schedule
22
Strong 2006 performance has set the stage
  • We expect to continue growing our top-line
    revenue as we add more subscribers and increase
    ARPU.
  • We expect continued roaming revenue growth, based
    on increased MOUs and a smaller step-down in
    blended yield in January 2007.
  • We expect to continue growing EBITDA, EBITDA
    margin, and free cash flow.
  • We expect to capitalize on our strong spectrum
    inventory as future technologies and new,
    advanced wireless services emerge.
  • We expect to continue strengthening our balance
    sheet to generate additional shareholder value.
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