Title: Positioned for Continued Growth
1- Positioned for Continued Growth
- January 10, 2007
2Agenda
- Dobson, the wireless industry and its growth
outlook - Operating improvements and organic growth
opportunities - Growth through expansion and M A
- Balance sheet opportunities to create additional
value
3- Introduction and Growth Outlook
4Overview
Dobson is the 3rd largest GSM wireless provider
in the US, primarily serving rural markets.
- 1.6M subscribers in markets that cover 12.4
million POPs - 1.2B Revenue for past 12 months
- 435M to 445M expected EBITDA for 2006
- Strong spectrum position
- Strengthened management team
5Wireless industry has strong growth outlook
- The US wireless industry is expected to grow at a
5 CAGR over the next 5 years. - Dobson markets are more rural and less penetrated
than the national average. - Within Dobsons markets, there are typically
fewer competitors than U.S. average. - Dobsons strong spectrum position is
predominantly 850 MHz spectrum, which is more
efficient in rural markets. - MSA average spectrum holdings 59 MHz
- RSA average spectrum holdings 49 MHz
Wireless industry analyst reports.
6- Operating Improvements
- and
- Organic Growth
72006 Operating focus
- Grow our subscriber base through increased sales,
reduced churn - Improve the Dobson customer experience through
strengthened network coverage and improved
customer care - Strengthen marketing, sales and customer care
management and operations - Substantially complete the migration of our
customer base to GSM - Increase ARPU
- Strengthen roaming relationships with our key GSM
partners - Grow EBITDA and free cash flow
8Top-line growth Increased postpaid gross
subscriber adds
- Stronger leadership in marketing and sales, and
revamped sales organization with channel
ownership - Attractive, differentiated calling plans, such as
statewide unlimited, that have generated
increased store traffic - Improved customer experience on enhanced network
- Results
- Consistently improved gross adds
- 6.2 YOY gross adds growth in 3Q06
- 8.6 YOY increase in postpaid gross adds for 3Q06
(000s)
9Top-line growth Subscriber growth as churn
declines
- Strengthened network
- Lower churn due to increasingly satisfied
customers -- quicker, more responsive customer
service and more proactive lifetime customer
management program - 86.4 of postpaid customers under contract
- Results
- Added 43,300 customers through first three
quarters of 2006 - Reduced postpaid churn below targeted goal of 2
- Customer Satisfaction Score improves for second
consecutive year
10Top-line growth ARPU growth
- Gains related to increased data usage and
incremental ETC. - Statewide unlimited calling plans have been
accretive to ARPU. - We continue to strengthen the data platform with
new services and data devices. - Most popular data services are SMS and ringtones,
but starting to see impact of short-code
campaigns. - Results
- 3Q06 YOY increase in ARPU of 2.39, or 5.1
- 3Q06 Data ARPU was 8.8 of total ARPU, vs. 4.2
in 1Q05 - Data ARPU has increased 138 since 1Q05
ARPU
4.34
Data ARPU
3.79
3.34
2.90
2.56
2.18
1.82
11Top-line revenue growth expected to continue
Service Revenue
- Top-line revenue growth in 2006 has resulted from
increasing subscribers and ARPU. - Subscriber reductions from 1Q to 4Q05, offsetting
ARPU growth. - Increased subs and ARPU in 2006 has strengthened
service revenue growth. - 86 of our subscriber base is now GSM, and 90 of
our postpaid base.
(Millions)
Subscriber gains
232
Net subscriber reductions
223
221
216
216
215
206
12Roaming revenue growth from increased MOUs
- 3Q Roaming revenue was 87.4M, a YOY increase of
8.6. - 846M MOUs, 10.3-cent yield
- Roaming MOUs 32 higher YTD
- T-Mobile MOUs growing faster than Cingular
- January 2007 and 2008 step-downs in contract
roaming rates will be smaller than that of
January 2006.
(Millions)
395M
13Strengthened EBITDA growth
- 3Q EBITDA was 124.7M, an increase of 4.4 YOY.
- 3Q 2006 EBITDA higher despite
- Increased gross adds
- 1.8M in new stock options expense
- Significant step-down in roaming yield in January
2006 - Additional operating costs from 264 cell sites
built since 3Q 2005 - Additional operating costs from AK, PA and TX
markets acquired since 3Q 2005 - 2006 EBITDA guidance is 435M to 445M.
EBITDA Growth
(Millions)
14- Growth through Expansion and MA
15Strategic acquisitions support Dobsons growth
- MA focused on strategic assets at attractive
values. - A potential acquisition should improve current
cluster economics. - More valuable footprint to local customers
- Reduced off-network (incollect) costs
- Additional scale-efficiencies to Dobson
- Prefer 850 MHz spectrum in rural areas
- Accretive to current operations
- Highland Cellular, Texas 15 Alaska acquisitions
illustrate this strategy. - Expect 20M in total 2007 EBITDA from 2006
acquisitions - Total purchase price of 123M, or 6.2X forward
EBITDA
16AWS auction objectives and results
- Goal Add spectrum over current footprint,
especially in critical markets. - We acquired 20 MHz of spectrum over 81 of our
existing footprint, including such critical areas
as Orange County, Poughkeepsie, Eastern WI and
Minnesota. - Goal Add spectrum in adjacent markets with
strong community of interest. - We acquired AWS spectrum over 10.8M POPs in
markets such as Buffalo, Rochester, Lexington and
West Virginia. - We expect our spectrum to be cleared for use in
late-2007 to mid-2008. - Goal Pursue a broad mobility strategy, leading
to multi-band GSM phones with nationwide
coverage. - Cingular and T-Mobile were active bidders for AWS
spectrum. - Goal Purchase spectrum at attractive values.
- Dobson paid 65.9M for 85 licenses average price
of 0.16 per MHz/POP.
17Value of AWS spectrum affirmed by national
carriers
- Cingular paid 1.3B for 48 licenses, validating
the significance of AWS spectrum to GSM providers
and handset manufacturers. - Cingular and T-Mobile focused on markets that are
urban, outside Dobson footprint, and that would
be well-served by our roaming relationships.
- T-Mobile was the only national provider that
purchased AK spectrum (only 10 MHz). - Leap and Metro PCS focused on top-50 metro
markets.
18Growth opportunities Technology evolution
- Continued strengthening of data platform and our
network should enable us to continue growing data
ARPU and data roaming traffic. - Plans moving forward to field-test 3G
technologies, but final decision on deployment
and timing is dependent on roaming traffic and
consumer demand for advanced services. - We dont expect significant 3G investment in
2007. - Subsequent to the AWS auction and previous
lease/purchases, we have spectrum to deploy
future technologies.
19- Balance Sheet Opportunities to Create Additional
Value
20Capital structure at Nov. 14, 2006
Goals
Dobson Communications Corporation 160M
Convertible senior debentures 150M Floating
rate notes 420M 8.875 Senior notes 136M
Series F convertible preferred
- Reduce overall leverage
- Reduce average cost of debt
- Maintain adequate liquidity
- Provide for maximum flexibility
Dobson Cellular Systems Inc. 500M 1st Lien
8.375 Secured Notes 325M 2nd Lien 9.875
Secured Notes 75M Undrawn revolver
American Cellular Corporation 125M Secured Term
Loan Credit Facility 900M 10 Senior Notes 18M
9.5 Senior Sub. Notes 75M Undrawn term
loan 50M Undrawn revolver
21Value opportunities Balance sheet
- Strong track record of reducing leverage.
- Refinanced most expensive debt in the last 12
months and still have strong liquidity available
to further strengthen our balance sheet -- 200M
in undrawn facilities companywide. - We are focused on reducing leverage and taking
debt off our balance sheet to create additional
shareholder value. - No near-term amortization
- Average cost of debt is 8.3, down from 8.9 12
months ago. - Starting in 2007, opportunities improve to
refinance and reduce cost of debt. - 1.1B of highest cost debt callable in 2007
(900M in 10 notes) - Additional 1.2B in debt callable in 2008
Call and Maturity Schedule
22Strong 2006 performance has set the stage
- We expect to continue growing our top-line
revenue as we add more subscribers and increase
ARPU. - We expect continued roaming revenue growth, based
on increased MOUs and a smaller step-down in
blended yield in January 2007. - We expect to continue growing EBITDA, EBITDA
margin, and free cash flow. - We expect to capitalize on our strong spectrum
inventory as future technologies and new,
advanced wireless services emerge. - We expect to continue strengthening our balance
sheet to generate additional shareholder value.