Partisanship

1
Partisanship

• American Political Parties
• Prof. Wolbrecht
• 28 January 2009

2
Campbell, David E., Geoffrey Layman, and John
Green. nd. Partisan Hearts, Minds, and Souls
Candidate Religion and the Activation of Partisan
Voting. University of Notre Dame, Program in
American Democracy Working Paper.
3
Campbell, David E., Geoffrey Layman, and John
Green. nd. Partisan Hearts, Minds, and Souls
Candidate Religion and the Activation of Partisan
Voting. University of Notre Dame, Program in
American Democracy Working Paper.
4
Campbell, David E., Geoffrey Layman, and John
Green. nd. Partisan Hearts, Minds, and Souls
Candidate Religion and the Activation of Partisan
Voting. University of Notre Dame, Program in
American Democracy Working Paper.
5
Campbell, David E., Geoffrey Layman, and John
Green. nd. Partisan Hearts, Minds, and Souls
Candidate Religion and the Activation of Partisan
Voting. University of Notre Dame, Program in
American Democracy Working Paper.
6
Campbell, David E., Geoffrey Layman, and John
Green. nd. Partisan Hearts, Minds, and Souls
Candidate Religion and the Activation of Partisan
Voting. University of Notre Dame, Program in
American Democracy Working Paper.
7
Weakening Connection between Citizens and Parties

• Claim No. 1 DECLINE IN PARTY I.D.
• Counterpoint No. 1 MYTH OF THE INDEPENDENT
  VOTER
  
• Leaners
• 1952 2004
• Strong Democrats \ 22 17
• Weak Democrats 25 57 16 50
• Leaning Democrats / 10 17
• Pure Independents 6 10
• Leaning Republicans \ 7 12
• Weak Republicans 14 35 12 40
• Strong Republicans / 14 16

Source National Election Studies
8
Weakening Connection between Citizens and Parties

• Claim No. 2 DECLINE IN PARTY ALLEGIANCE
• Growth in split ticket voting and willingness to
  support other parties, including third parties
  
• Split Ticket Voting (different President and
  House)
  
• 1952 12
• 1956 15
• 1960 14
• 1964 15
• 1968 18
• 1972 30
• 1974 25
• 1980 28 almost a third by 1980

Source National Election Studies
9
Weakening Connection between Citizens and Parties

• Claim No. 2 DECLINE IN PARTY ALLEGIANCE
• Counterpoint No. 2 MOVING THE OTHER WAY?
• Split Ticket Voting
• 1984 26
• 1988 25
• 1992 22
• 1996 17
• 2000 19
• 2004 17 less than a fifth by 2004

Source National Election Studies
10
Weakening Connection between Citizens and Parties

• Claim No. 3 PARTY LESS PREDICTABLE
• Correlation b/w party ID and presidential
  choice
  
• Year Strong ID Weak ID
• 1952 1.600 .928
• 1972 1.221 .603

Source Larry Bartels. 2000. Partisanship and
Voting Behavior, 1952-1996. American Journal of
Political Science 44(January)35-50.
Correlations are probit coefficients.
11
Weakening Connection between Citizens and Parties

• Claim No. 3 PARTY LESS PREDICTABLE
• Counterpoint No. 2 MOVING THE OTHER WAY
  (AGAIN)?
  
• Correlation b/w party ID and presidential
  choice
  
• Year Strong ID Weak ID
• 1952 1.600 .928
• 1972 1.221 .603
• 1980 1.602 .929
• 1996 1.946 1.022

Source Larry Bartels. 2000. Partisanship and
Voting Behavior, 1952-1996. American Journal of
Political Science 44(January)35-50.
Correlations are probit coefficients.