NWS

1
NWS RD Needs and Plans
NWS/OAR Review March 26, 2002
Jack Hayes NWS/Office of Science and Technology
2
Outline

• Science and Technology Infusion Plan (STIP)
• STIP Next
• NWS RD Needs and Priorities
• Roadmap

3
ST Infusion Plan (STIP)
Purpose

• Establish ST Direction for NWS
• Reflect investment priorities
• Support Disciplined and Streamlined Technology
  Insertion

4
STIP
Three Timeframes

• NWS Today
• Continuous refreshment of the Modernized NWS
• Service Requirements driven
• NWS Next
• What NWS will evolve to by 2010
• NWS After Next
• NWS of 20 or more years from now
• ST Opportunities driven
• (from Dorman Report, 99)

5
STIP
Drafting Process to Date

• Internal Polling December 2000
• Synthesized Dorman, 3 NRC Reports
• Roundtable Discussions April, 2001
• Workshop with External Community Mid June, 2001
• Internal Review Forum Mid July, 2001
• Senior NWS Management Review Early August, 2001
• Developed RD Need Statements January, 2002

6
STIP Vision

• NWS provides highest quality weather, water, and
  climate, and related environmental data, forecast
  and warning products and information.
• Sustains a seamless database (with Partners)
• Observations
• Analyses
• Forecasts
• Uncertainty Information
• Outlooks, watches, warnings
• Interrogation and mining tools allow users to
  exploit database for any application or purpose

7
STIP

• Notional Warning Lead Time
  Goals
• 2000 2025
• Tornadoes 12 mins 40 mins
• Thunderstorms 18 mins 5 hours
• Flash Floods 43 mins 4 hours
• Winter Storms 9 hours 2 days
• etc.

8
STIP
Notional Elements
After Next
Next
Today (Program. Improvements)
Area

• Phased Array
• UAV dropsondes
• NPOESS

• Dual Polarization
• Expanded MDCRS
• NPOESS Prep

• NEXRAD
• Radiosondes
• Polar

Observations

• Eta
• MRF
• Local Models

DA / Num. Pred.

• Community multiscale, fully coupled

• WRF
• Community Global / Climate

• probability theory
• Advanced hybrids
• Seamless database

Forecast Techniques and Product/Information
Generation

• Neural nets
• Fuzzy logic hybrids
• 4-D digital database

• MOS
• Decision Assist.
• IFPS

• NWR
• SBN

• Video
• Global ubiquity

• Digital Radio
• Internet 2

Dissemination

• keep up
• data on demand

• min. 300 sust. tflps.
• wireless

• Class IX/X comp.
• AWIPS networks

Enabling Tech.
9
Plan for STIP Next

• Keep After Next vision and opportunities in
  view while focusing STIP on NWS Today and NWS
  Next (2002-2010).
• Strengthen linkage between planned outcomes,
  Performance Measures/Goals, and ST needs.
• Focus on optimizing return on investment.
• Develop Roadmaps taking us from NWS Today to
  Next.
• Develop specific Action Plans and Agreements.

10
STIP Next First Step

• Define ST/RD needs for Today with an eye toward
  Next.

11
NWS RD Needs10 Major Categories
Number of related GPRA goals in parentheses

• - Severe Local Storms (3) - Tropical Storms (2)
• - Air Quality - Aviation Weather (2)
• - Climate Analysis/Prediction (1) - Flood
  Forecasting (2)
• - Winter Weather (2) -
  Quantitative Precip. Information (QPF
  QPE) (1)
• - Marine Weather - Fire Weather
• /Ocean Conditions (1)

12
Specific Science Objectives

• Under each of the 10 major categories, science
  objectives are distributed among following 7
  areas
• - Observations - DA/Num. Prediction
• - Forecast Techniques - Enabling
  Tech/Dissem.
• - Fundamental Understanding - Training
• - Human Factors

13
NWS High Priority Needs

• Needs separated into 3 tiers for OAR
• Tier 1 Aviation, Severe Wx, Flood,, Winter Wx,
  Tropical
• High priority, NWS-wide mission areas.
• Clearly defined performance gaps exist.
• Perceived likelihood of scientific progress.
• Tier 2 Climate, Marine, Fire Weather, QPI
• Non-traditional mission areas where customer
  demand is increasing.
• Generally, more regional in scope.
• Tier 3 Air Quality
• Not a current NWS service area.
• Perceived to be a growing service need.

14
Aviation Weather
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Improve NWP forecast of low clouds and
  visibility.
• Develop techniques for forecasting formation and
  dissipation of IFR/LIFR conditions within 1 hour
  of occurrence.
• Improve methods to generate and monitor
  semi-automated aviation forecasts.

15
Severe Local Storms
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Develop new sensors to observe severe weather
  events/parameters (e.g., lightning, cloud
  vertical distributions of moisture).
• Develop techniques to assimilate TDWR, WSR-88D
  and dual pol. radar data/other remote sensing
  data into high resolution models.
• Enhance weather event training simulators for
  WFOs.

16
Flood Forecasting
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Develop better hydrologic forecast models
  products that fully utilize high resolution
  digital spatial datasets to produce improved
  forecasts for river/flash flooding.
• Develop tools to accurately estimate and forecast
  uncertainty of hydrologic products (both
  observation- and forecast-based products) for all
  time domains.
• Develop techniques to utilize GIS data sets in
  operational hydrologic forecasts, such as
  determining the impacts of potential dam failures.

17
Winter Weather
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Develop application of ensemble forecasts for
  predicting winter storm track/intensity and
  precipitation amount/type.
• Develop improved techniques for the prediction of
  freezing/frozen precipitation events, including
  timing, areal extent, intensity, and amount.
• Develop techniques for probabilistic forecasts of
  severity of large-scale winter storms.

18
Tropical Storms
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Improve tropical cyclone intensity change
  forecasts (rapid intensification and weakening).
• Improve tropical cyclone precipitation forecasts.
• Improve track forecasts for difficult scenarios
  (e.g., stalling, looping, and recurving storms).

19
Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPI)
High Priority Needs

• Improve rainfall/snowfall estimation techniques
  utilizing a diverse set of observations to
  produce optimal regional national multisensor
  estimates.
• Improve assimilation of radar satellite data
  into NWP models to improve 0-6 hr forecasting of
  existing incipient flash-flood-producing
  storms.
• Improve techniques for 0-3 hour nowcasts of
  rainfall using WSR-88D, satellite, and other
  measurements to improve warning lead-times for
  short-fuse flash flood events.

GPRA Goals
20
Climate Analysis/Prediction
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Improve the ability of climate models to capture
  linkages between climate variability the
  statistics of weather (including weather
  extremes).
• Improve prediction of sub-seasonal phenomena such
  as the MJO.
• Develop improved drought monitoring and seasonal
  drought outlook techniques.

21
Marine Weather/Ocean Conditions
High Priority Needs
GPRA Goals

• Improve techniques to forecast water levels,
  currents, waves, and storm surge inundation and
  coastal flooding.
• Adapt current wave models to nearshore areas that
  do not have forecast guidance.
• Continue development of forecaster decision
  assistance tools (e.g., SAFESEAS) for coastal
  floods, winds, waves, and freezing spray.

22
Fire Weather
High Priority Needs

• Develop methods for modeling/predicting coupling
  of wildfire behavior, fuel distribution, and
  meteorological systems.
• Improve prediction accuracy and verification
  methods for fire weather and smoke
  transport/dispersion.
• Develop decision assistance packages to improve
  identification and prediction of fire weather
  events.

23
Air Quality
High Priority Needs

• Predict chemical variability in atmospheric,
  hydrologic, and climatologic systems and its
  impact upon these systems.
• Determine causes and impact of chemical
  variability on hydrometeorologic systems and
  climate.
• Predict atmospheric contaminant dispersion at a
  range of space-time scales, from urban to
  regional and from minutes to days.

24
Roadmap

• More in-depth analysis in each high priority area
  of need (completed by Sept. 02).
• Corporate review of needs and priorities
• (Fall 02).
• FY05 investment planning (Winter 02/03).
• Annual review and alignment.

25
Backup
26
Prioritization Exercise
Suggested Criteria

• Performance gap (30)
• Urgency of requirements in related service area
  (20)
• Potential Socio-Economic Impact (20)
• Likelihood of rapid scientific progress/infusion
  (20)
• External factors e.g., response to urgent
  national need, public sentiment (10)

27
Prioritization Exercise
Results
28
Prioritization Exercise
Results