Spatial AHM

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Spatial AHM
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Spatial AHM

• Black duck dynamics
• General approach
• Incorporation of movement and fidelity estimates
• Incorporation of mallards

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BLACK DUCK DYNAMICS

• 1-population model with state variable input
  stratified by breeding areas
• State variables based totally on CWS surveys
• 6 harvest units connected to breeding areas by
  movement functions

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Breeding and Harvest Areas
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Fidelity to Breeding Areas
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MOVEMENT AND FIDELITY
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Movement to Northern Harvest Areas
W
E
C
E
C
W
Survive
Survive
Survive
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Movement to Southern Harvest/Winter Areas
E
W
C
Survive
Survive
Survive
AFN
AFS
MF
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Movement to Southern Harvest/Winter Areas
E
W
C
Survive
Survive
Survive
AFN
AFS
MF
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Movement to Southern Harvest/Winter Areas
E
W
C
Survive
Survive
Survive
AFN
AFS
MF
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Derivation of Harvest from Southern Areas
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Mississippi Flyway
E
W
C
AFS
MF
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Atlantic Flyway North
E
W
C
AFS
AFN
MF
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Atlantic Flyway South
E
W
C
AFS
AFN
MF
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MALLARD DYNAMICS

• Fit simple growth models to CWS data by black
  duck population units
• Allow for harvest by breeding unit
• No movement between populations

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Approaches

• Fit logistic model with nonlinear LS
• Convergence failure, poor behavior
• Fit model
• N(t1)-N(t) rN(t)1-N(t)/K via linear LS

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Estimates
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Model Fit
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Model Projections

• Mallard model

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Summary of 3-pop model

• State variables- CWS black duck and mallard BPOP,
  by areas (W, C, E)
• Black duck dynamics based on 1-pop model with
  area-specific input
• Harvest decisions by
• Northern harvest areas ? W, C, E
• Southern harvest areas ?MF, AFN, AFS
• Movement and fidelity estimated by band recovery
  models
• Mallard dynamics ? simple growth model by areas.
  Harvest decision by area (W, C, E)