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2002 Very Different From 1975

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Atlanta, Austin, Phoenix. China, India, Mexico. What Happened? ... New Businesses. Computers. Steam Engines. Cars,Trucks. Airplanes. Electricity. Audio,Pictorial ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: 2002 Very Different From 1975


1
(No Transcript)
2
2002 Very Different From 1975
Out
In
  • Steve Jobs Garage.
  • Akami.
  • 10-100 Million Venture
  • Fund Investments.
  • 1 Million Venture
  • Fund Investment.
  • China, India, Mexico.
  • Atlanta, Austin,
  • Phoenix.
  • Venture Capital.
  • Enterprise Capital.
  • Entrepreneur.
  • Institutional Entrepreneur.

3
What Happened?
  • ERISA (1975).
  • Exponential Growth of Equity Markets.
  • Gov./Corp. RD Passed By Private Equity.
  • Apple, IBM PC, Lotus/Visicalc (1981).
  • The Start of Automated Desktops.
  • Microsoft, Oracle (MSFTNASDAQ. Public in
    1986).
  • The Start of Mass Customization.
  • The Fall of the Wall (1989).
  • Changing Geopolitical Borders.
  • The Internet (AOL(1989), Yahoo (1994)).
  • Changing Economics of Markets, Geography and
    Remote Locations.

4
ERISA Revolutionized Equity Markets
5
US Venture Capital Disbursements FY1980-2000
Private Equity Grew with Public Equity
(000s)
Source US Venture Capital Association FY2000
Yearbook.
6
Cal. Northeast Disburse 2/3s of Total s
Source US Venture Capital Association FY2000
Yearbook.
7
In Absolute Terms, The Numbers are Staggering
VT 1
7
7
Source US Venture Capital Association FY2000
Yearbook.
8

Technology Infrastructure Revolutionized
Business
Scale
  • Automation, Digitization.
  • Size/Weight of Products.
  • Reduction in Labor.
  • Reduction in Required
  • Capital to Achieve Scale.
  • Reach, Cost, Quality.
  • Consumer Economics.
  • Supplier Economics.

Infrastructure
9
Automation,Miniaturization,Digitization Change
in Scale
  • Lower Investment for Scale
  • - Less Capital Employed.
  • - Less Labor Required..
  • Lowers Avg. Product Weight.
  • - Lower Transportation Cost.
  • - Lower Locational Advantage.

High
s per Assets
Low
s per Employee
Low
High
Low
High
Avg. Product Weight per
10
Less Labor,Lower Weights,Lower Distribution Costs

GDP- per Lb.
Gross US Domestic Product


GDP- per Person

Weight of GDP

11
Mature Infrastructure Change in Consumer
Economics
  • Consumer Access Changes.
  • Consumer Economics Change.
  • Activities for Consumer.
  • Fulfillment Change.
  • Supplier Scale Changes.

High
Reach
Low
Speed/ Quality
Low
High
Low
High
Cost
12
New Infrastructure/Technology Has Happened Before
  • Combination of Technology/Infrastructure Has
  • Historically Redefined Boundaries/Scale.
  • Major Incidents in Last 100 Years.
  • - Infrastructure Railroads, Highways, Power
    Lines,
  • Telephone Lines, Broadcast Towers, Airports,
  • Internet.
  • - Technology Steam Engines, Gas Engines,
  • Electricity, Electronics, Airplanes,
    Computers.
  • Each Incident Changed Access and Economics.
  • Old Industries Reshaped to New Assumptions.
  • New Industries were Created.

13

New Infrastructure/Technology New Businesses
New Businesses
  • Digital Information, Transactions.
  • Global Exchange.
  • Intercity Trade.
  • Suburbs. Regional Cities, Malls,
  • Motels, Remote Labor.
  • International Business, FEDEX,
  • Destination Resorts, New Corporate Centers.
  • Home Power, Night Sports.
  • Professional Sports, News,
  • Movies.
  • Computers
  • Steam Engines
  • Cars,Trucks
  • Airplanes
  • Electricity
  • Audio,Pictorial
  • Reproduction

14
Each Class is Better Qualified Than Last
Opportunity
  • Each Graduating Class Technically
  • More Qualified than Previous Class.
  • Markets will Adapt to New Consumer.
  • New Consumers Know Infrastructure.
  • Economics will be less Concentrated.

Challenge
  • College Grads in Shanghai, New Delhi,
  • Tokyo have Similar Opportunities.
  • Less Labor, Weight, Capital but
  • Greater Scope.
  • Costs Down but What About Relative
  • Revenue.
  • Infrastructure/Technology Still in
  • Disequilibrium.

15
Recommendations
  • Experience More Important Than Ever.
  • Entrepreneurial Environments.
  • Institutional Environments.
  • Get Comfortable with Change.
  • Local things are going Global?
  • Global things are going Local?
  • Things above the ground are going underground?
  • Things below the ground are going above the
    ground?
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