A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION

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"A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL
SITUATION" A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari National
Iranian Oil Company May 2002 Global oil
crunch at the horizon --- most probably within
the present decade. "...It would take a number
of miracles to thwart such a rational
scenario.. A series of simultaneous miracles is
not possible --for there are limits even to God
Almighty's mercifulness".
Noah built his ark before it started raining
www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002
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Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review,
LondonThe practical realities

• Worry about flows not reserves
• "Deliverability"

It isn't the size of the tank its the size
of the tap (ASPO-USA)
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A simple observation -- or why peak will be
earlier than most people expect

• Global production falls when loss of output from
  countries in decline exceeds gains in output from
  those that are expanding.

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• Please put your hand up if you think that we have
  crossed the Hubbert Peak
• and hands up those who dont?
• Undecided

• 1/3rd

• 1/3rd

• 1/3rd

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Australia uses 51,000 megalitres of oil each
year a 370m cube
Sydney Harbour Bridge is 134 m high
80 of Australias oil usage is in transport
If Australias 20 M tpa wheat crop ? ethanol
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100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough
to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel
tower
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Australian Government Policy and Action Options
1 Talk about it, Talk about it
2. Engage people, Participatory democracy
3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that
subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight
transport.
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and
disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should
be incrementally raised to European levels to
reduce usage.
5 SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation
system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil
shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce
their fuel usage..
6. Concentrate on the psychological and social
dimensions of automobile dependence, not just
technological fixes
7. Implement nationwide "individualised
marketing" travel demand management.
8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are
better investments than more roads.
9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas
supplies to food production, essential services
and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card
system.
10. Review the oil vulnerability of every
industry and community sector and how each may
reduce their risks.
11 Promote through the United Nations an
Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a
Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the
declining oil among nations. An international
tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is
one hypothetical option.
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Peak Oil will impact very dramatically on the
MDGs, as well as on Australia The developed
world must reduce its consumption to leave enough
for developing countries "Live simply, so others
may simply live"
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a few more slides follow, in case they are needed
for questions
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Peak Oil Impacts on MDGs and options for
Australia Bruce Robinson Convenor 15th March
2008
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US Federal, State and local Governments were
shown to be shortsighted, ill-prepared, uncaring
and disorganised. Australian governments are
much less organised for Peak Oil
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Gboe/pa World All Oil
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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Gboe/pa World All Oil Gas
(gas at 10,000 cft1bbl)
www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006
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Urban passenger mode shares Australia
Car
High automobile-dependence Public transport
share is very low
Potterton BTRE 2003
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February 2004
By 2015, we will need to find, develop and
produce new oil and gas equal to eight out of
every 10 barrels being produced today.
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Why are oil supplies peaking?

• Too many fields are old and declining
• 54 of 65 oil producing countries are in
  decline!
• Oil supply will peak in 2010/2011 at around 92-94
  million barrels/day
• Oil supply in internationaltrade may peak
  earlier
• Collectively we are still in denial

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Global liquids capacity to 2015
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Prof. Aleklett, ASPO Sweden
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