Adversary Use of NBCMissiles: Implications for Deterrence

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Adversary Use of NBC/MissilesImplications for
Deterrence

• John F. Reichart
• Center for Counterproliferation Research
• National Defense University

Center for Counterproliferation Research
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Changing Perceptions on Adversary Use

• 1991
• Poor mans atomic bomb
• Weapons of last resort
• Weapons of mass destruction
• NBC
• Operating too hard to do
• Too hard for adversary to use effectively
• CW, esp. BW, not effective vs forces in field
• BW seen through CW prism
• Effects on coalitions ?
• Threat regional in nature
• Reliance on traditional deterrence (threat of
  retaliation)

• Today
• Counters U.S. conventional superiority
• Early CB use possible, even likely
• Low lethality attractive as well
• Nuclear is not bio is not chem
• BW still (too?) hard to do
• CBW have operational utility differentiated
  effects
• Extended battlefield air bases, ports are front
  line
• BW seen as very different
• Concern about splitting coalitions
• U.S. Homeland at risk missile threat
• ? Deterrence could fail emphasis on deterrence
  by denial, missile defenses

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Elements of Deterrence
DISSUASION
DENIAL
RETALIATION
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Regional Deterrence Setting

• Necessary Conditions for Deterrence Success May
  Be Absent
• Rational Cost-Benefit Calculations
• Effective Communications and Mutual
  Understandings
• Deterrence Works In Two Directions
• U.S. Will Seek To Deter Use Of NBC
• Adversary Will Use Possession Of NBC To Deter
  U.S./Allies From Intervening
• Traditional Deterrence Approaches Based Primarily
  on Punishment Are Likely To Be Inadequate