Title: None
1Enhancing Insurance Regulation and Supervision
David Richardson Director Asia Actuarial
Services PricewaterhouseCoopers 8th September
2008
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2HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
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3HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
- Insurance legislation designed to try to ensure
solvency through implicit margins and
conservative assumptions - Assets at lesser of book or market value
- In Singapore/Malaysia, property taken into
account at a value 30 years ago - This was thought safe the safer the better
- Taxation authorities didnt help since a property
revaluation would lead to a tax bill - For life companies, this was coupled with a
statutory net premium valuation of liabilities - Net premium valuation involves calculating
premiums based on prescribed mortality, morbidity
and discount basis and then subtracting the
present value of future net premiums from
the present value of the sum assured and
attaching bonus, if any, on the prescribed basis
4HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
- No explicit account is taken of management
expenses, surrenders, lapses or distribution
expenses. No explicit account is taken of
expected future bonuses paid to policyholders
or expected future dividends to be paid to
shareholders - The prescribed discount rates were what were
thought to be low interest rates at the
time so as to be safe and implicitly provide for
future reversionary and terminal bonuses. - The prescribed mortality rates were deliberately
historical so as to implicitly provide margins - The prescribed net premium valuation basis for
Thailand requires the use of a discount
rate equal to the interest rate used in the
pricing of the life insurance products subject to
a maximum of 6 p.a. The prescribed mortality
table is TMO 86 for policies issued before
2002 and TMO 97 for policies issued from and
after 2002.
5HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
- Current mortality experience among a number of
life insurers is about 50 of TMO 97 - A Zillmer adjustment of 5.5 is permitted for
ordinary life business and 6.5 for
industrial life business - The defects are huge lack of transparency and an
inability of the insuring public to compare
the financial health of one company with another - Capital was locked away inefficiently and
unrealised investment gains were passed to
neither policyholder nor shareholder - Without unrealised investment gains in the
accounts, insurance was more expensive than it
should have been and insurance company products
were looking increasingly uncompetitive relative
to banking and unit trust products
6h
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
- The discount rate for the net premium valuation
was fixed in times of high interest rates and
could not cope with an economic cycle of low
interest rates and what was thought to be
conservative was nothing of the kind - The same interest rate was prescribed for valuing
participating policies as well as
non-participating products illogical - One size fits all net premium valuation ignored
any differences in rates of future bonuses or in
the difference in management expenses, lapses,
investment returns etc between different
companies - Even a mortality margin for life insurance
valuations didnt help the proper emergence of
reversionary bonus because the margin which is
based on the difference between sum assured and
reserve decreased with policy duration whereas
reversionary bonus values increase with duration - Certain risks such as asset/liability mismatching
risk and borrower default risk were not
recognised at all and no reserves established to
reflect these risks
7HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
- Governments were becoming increasingly concerned
the demise of Equitable Life in the UK and HIH
in Australia - Basel 2 provided an impetus for banks to decide
on risk charges for borrower default based on
individual risk standing rather than apply a flat
8 across the board - Questions were posed-
- Is there sufficient capital to support policy
guarantees? - Sufficient capital to support companies with high
new business growth compared to less dynamic
companies? - Sufficient capital to cover mismatching of assets
and liabilities? - Sufficient capital to back the risk of corporate
bond default or risk of market declines for
equities and property? - Change was inevitable. Already happened in
Singapore, India, Australia and Malaysia.
8MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
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9MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- In Singapore and Malaysia, RBC for general
insurers is similar - Both Singapore and Malaysia adopt projected cash
flow on the life side to determine BE and
additional PAD ( PRAD in Malaysia). The PAD is to
cover liability fluctuations up to 75 confidence
level - With the Par fund in Singapore, there is
introduced Surplus Account. The allocation to
shareholders is by a 90/10 rule by which the
shareholders are entitled to 10/90 x cost of
policyholders bonuses - Shareholders may withdraw the Surplus Account
only if capital requirements are met. Remaining
assets in the Par fund are available to meet
policy liabilities. - The policy liability of a Par fund is set to
equal the policy assets i.e. assets less surplus
account subject to (a) minimum condition
liabilities i.e. the guaranteed liabilities
discounted using a risk free discount rate (b)
guaranteed liabilities non-guaranteed
liabilities discounted using the best estimate of
the investment return of the fund ( Singapore) or
the yield on A2 rated corporate bond ( Malaysia)
10MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- In Malaysia, there is no Surplus Account
concept for the par fund - The liabilities of the par fund in Malaysia are
the sum of the present value of guaranteed
benefits (risk free discount rate) and the
present value of non- guaranteed benefits i.e.
bonuses. There is no adjustment for policy assets
11MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- The discount rate for the GPV is different.
Singapore uses the actuarys best estimate of
fund investment return. Malaysia uses AA rated
bond yield - Minimum CAR 120 ( Singapore) 130 ( Malaysia)
- Neither have liquidity tests e.g. assume
projected future cash flow income sufficient to
pay out benefits in all circumstances - With regard to general insurance, Malaysia says
that if discounting of liabilities is used,
explicit claims escalation assumptions should be
used. Singapore just leaves it to the Actuary to
decide - In the calculation of C1, the adjustment to
mortality rates for insurance policies with
guaranteed premiums and for annuities refers to a
specified mortality table based on insurance
company experience 1997-2002. All other
mortality, expense, dread disease etc adjustments
are based on the insurers best estimate ( usually
PAD is 50 of the adjustment. On the other hand,
in Malaysia, the adjustments refer to best
estimate throughout but at a higher level e.g.
non-guaranteed premium 120 of best estimate
rates whereas Singapore uses 112.5.
12MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- For general insurance liabilities in Malaysia,
the maximum diversification effect i.e. fund PRAD
is not less than 50 of the sum of the individual
PRAD by line of business. No such limitation is
imposed in Singapore. - Risk free discount rate in Malaysia is based
completely on the yields for Government
securities by duration up to 10 years. Thereafter
based on the 10 year term. - In Singapore, risk free discount rate is based
completely on the yields for Government
securities by duration up to 10 years.
Thereafter, a stable long term risk free discount
rate is determined based on the following (i)
compute the average closing yield of 10 year SGS
since inception (ii) compute the average yield
differential between 10 year and 15 year SGS
(iii) derive an estimated long term yield by
adding (i) and (ii) (iv) compute average closing
yield of 15 year SGS over past 6 month period (v)
allocate 90 weight to the yield in (iii) and 10
weight to the yield in (iv) and round up to the
nearest 25 basis points to arrive at the LTRFDR.
Use LTRFDR for durations of 15 years or more and
interpolation between 10 and 15 years
13MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- If the policy assets are short of either of the 2
floors, assets must come from surplus account to
support the policy assets. This deduction may be
recoverable in future when policy assets exceed
the 2 floors - On bonus distribution, Singapore RBC says that
the cost of bonus will be calculated using the
MCL basis. - There are 2 capital requirements (a) fund
solvency applicable to each insurance fund and
(b) capital adequacy requirement applicable to
the insurer overall - There are 3 components to determine capital
adequacy requirements. - C1 is the liability risk charge obtained by
applying specific risk charges to premium and
claim liabilities ( general insurers) and by
applying specific risk margins to the various
assumptions affecting policy liabilities ( life
insurers)
14MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- C2 relates to asset risks based on exposure to
bonds, equities etc but it also relates to
asset/liability mismatching risk - C3 refers to concentration risk in certain types
of assets, counterparties or groups of
counterparties - Total risk requirement C1C2C3 TRR
- Amount of capital to meet TRR is financial
resources - For a fund, the financial resources gt TRR
- For all insurance funds ( except par funds),
financial resources assets-liabilities. For a
par fund, financial resources in Singapore
balance of surplus account liability for
non-guaranteed benefits - For Malaysia, each insurer is required to
determine CAR in its insurance and shareholders
funds to support total capital required - CAR is total capital available/ total capital
required - For life insurer with par business in a separate
fund, CAR min (CAR all, CAR all except par)
reflects the ability of life insurers to adjust
the level of future bonuses and also preserves
the principal that surplus of par fund cannot
support non-par business
15MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE DIFFERENCES
- Total capital available Tier 1 Tier 2 capital
in Malaysia Tier 1 is permanent, no maturity
date, cannot be redeemed, non-cumulative, issued
and fully paid up. - In Singapore, total capital available Tier 1
Tier 2 provision for non-guaranteed benefits(
in par fund) - In both Singapore and Malaysia, asset
inadmissibility rules have been removed ( except
for items such as goodwill, future tax credits
etc) - In Singapore, operational risk has no risk
charges since it was felt that operational risks
can be better dealt with by an insurers internal
risk management systems and supervisory effort - In Malaysia, operational risk has a specific risk
charge of 1 of total assets - In Singapore and Malaysia, there is a
diversification effect by fund for general
insurance liabilities but no diversification
effect for life insurance liabilities or for
assets. Solvency II specifies diversification
effect for all.
16Characteristics of a good RBC system and EWS
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17Characteristics of RBC system
- Identifies risk faced by insurers and provides a
clear framework on how they should be measured - Asset risks should include credit risk, market
risk and concentration risk - Life liability risk should include mortality,
management and distribution channels expenses,
persistency, discount rates - Non-life liability should include claims
fluctuations through development years and the
sufficiency of premium to cover unexpired risk - Diversification risk is taken into account
- Initially, the framework should not be too
complex. The system can be strengthened and
enhanced over time.
18Characteristics of EWS system
- Able to alert the regulators in good time of
insurers who may be having financial problems - Should be responsive without being an undue
burden on insurers - The key early warning indicator to the regulator
is the Capital Adequacy Ratio - However, because certain assumptions are based on
industry data, additional indicators may be
needed
19Project Plan
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20Overall timeline
21Project phases
22Project phases
23Project phases
24Project Office
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25As-Is project office
26To-be project office
To be determined if necessary
27Barriers to success/Key success factors
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28Success factors
- Market education
- Market buy-in to the proposed framework
- Transition arrangements
- Integration of RBC and EWS
29ASSET RISK CHARGES
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30ASSET RISK CHARGES
- The asset value in a RBC regime will be fair
value or, for listed equities, market value - We can split assets into 2 types The fist type
includes bonds, mortgages and preference shares
for which there is a fixed interest return and a
probability of default according to how risky is
the investment. - The second type includes property and shares
which are subject to fluctuations in rental
income, dividends and market values but not to
default. - The fair value of assets corresponds to the best
estimate of liabilities and the probability of
default ( for the first type) or of market value
fluctuation (for the second type) enables the
actuary to determine the appropriate asset risk
charges to achieve a certain confidence level - The general question to be answered for each
investment type is this
31ASSET RISK CHARGES
- Given the current market value and a risk-free
investment rate i.e. the investment rate
generated by Government bonds of appropriate
duration, what is the discount to current market
value for which we have a certain level of
confidence that the market value in 12 months
time will not be below such discounted market
value - The methodology to answer this question for
listed ordinary shares is similar to the
Black-Scholes methodology in the pricing of stock
options and derivatives. - The assumption is that proportional changes in
the share price in a short period of time are
normally distributed or that the actual share
price at any future time has a log-normal
distribution
32ASSET RISK CHARGES
- The mean of the log-normal of the share price at
any time t in future is given by the formula - log(n) S(t) log(n) S ( µ -
s2/2)t - where S is the current share price, µ is the
risk-free investment return rate and s the
volatility of the share price - Also the standard deviation of log(n) S(t) sv t
- One of the features of a normally distributed
variable is that there is a 95 probability that
it has a value within 2 standard deviations of
its mean - This provides a method of determining a suitable
discount to market value at 31 December in
any year such that we have 95 confidence that
the actual market value as at 31 December in
the following year is greater than such
discounted market value - It is normal practice with Black-Scholes to use a
suitable stock market index as a proxy to
the volatility of a share price
33ASSET RISK CHARGES
- To illustrate the process, how did we generate
asset risk charges for insurance companies in
India? - Tracked the closing prices in the Bombay SENSEX
index for each trading day over a period of 10
years - Taking the ratio of the index closing price in 1
day to the previous days closing price, we got
the inter-day investment return - We took various time periods such as 90 days, 180
days and 360 days to determine the average
volatility of the investment return 20. The
volatility itself was quite volatile so we
conducted a number of sensitivity checks with
volatility ranges from 10 to 30. The greater
the volatility the greater the discount - The risk-free investment return was the rate of
investment return on Indian Government securities
of 364 days duration
34ASSET RISK CHARGES
- The risk free rate was 9.5. We conducted
sensitivity tests using rates 7 - 13 - At 95 confidence interval, the results were
35ASSET RISK CHARGES
- The discount to market value varies considerably
by interest rate changes at 10 volatility but
much less so at higher volatility - The lower the interest rate for a given
volatility the higher the discount to market
value - Our best estimate discount against market value
was 25 - For corporate bonds, historical default data from
LIC - Once a bond defaulted on a dividend payment, it
defaulted for all payments afterwards - Simple probability of default
- Most corporate bonds not rated
- Assumed that coupon rate was correlated with
rating but cannot group all bonds with a
certain coupon rate over the 10 year period - Its the difference between the coupon rate and
the risk free rate which determines if a bond
is speculative or not
36ASSET RISK CHARGES
ASSET RISK CHARGES
- Next we split the minimum and maximum coupon
rates in a year into 7 equal intervals
corresponding to ratings AAA to B- - Assuming a uniform distribution of default over
the bond duration, we obtained annualised default
probabilities - Similar exercises were conducted for residential
and commercial mortgages, real estate and
listed and unlisted preference shares
37GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
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38GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Concept in risk-based capital is liabilities
determined on a best estimate basis - 50 chance of being too high and 50 chance of
too low - Margin in Singapore, Malaysia and Australia is to
increase the 50 chance of being too high to 75
chance i.e. liabilities measured at a 75
confidence level. - On top, we have liability risk charges
- To be consistent with asset risk charges, these
should increase the confidence level from 75 to
95 - The actuarial determination of claim reserves and
unexpired risk reserves is statistical. It
examines historical claim payments to determine
trends so that future claim payments can be
estimated - One actuarial method selects development factors
based on an analysis of historical claims
development factors
39GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- The selected development factors are applied to
cumulative claims data for each line of business
for each accident or underwriting year for which
data not yet developed - This produces an estimated ultimate claims cost
- The claim reserve is the difference between the
ultimate claims cost and cumulative paid claims - This is best estimate. 75 confidence level
figure referred to as provision for adverse
deviations (PAD) in Singapore- normally
determined by simulation - Simulation approach is as follows
- Taking cumulative claim payments throughout
development years from an accident/underwriting
year for each business line, we determine the
ratio of cumulative claims paid up to a
development year divided by the cumulative
claims paid up to the prior development year - From the various ratios in a development year,
the best estimate is selected
40GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- The selected ratios are applied to the cumulative
claims data to determine the fitted claims
development triangle - The fitted claims data determines the best
estimate - The fitted claims data is considered the mean
of a normal distribution and actual claims
payments are samples of claim payments taken from
the underlying normal distribution - If F is the fitted claims data and A the actual
claims data, then - (A-F) x 1/vF is a unit normal distribution
with mean zero and standard deviation 1 - The simulation bootstrapping consists in
applying random numbers from 0 to 1 to the
variable to more closely define the normal
distribution - Usual to run 50 simulations 10 times and take the
average of each mean as the best estimate and the
average of the PADs as the PAD - The average of the PADs is divided by the average
of each mean and expressed in percentage terms
41GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- The percentage is applied to the best estimate to
determine the appropriate PAD - The simulation does not depend on the method to
get best estimate but depends on a random
selection of the differences between fitted
claims and actual claims - Illustration Cumulative paid claims from
accident year through development years
42GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Ratio of cumulative paid claims for one
development year to the cumulative paid claims
for previous development year and determine
various averages of the factors
43GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
44GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Diversification effect The best estimate and PAD
are obtained separately for each line of business
but the overall PAD is not the sum of the PADs by
line of business - Combining short-tailed and long-tailed business
has the effect of reducing volatility - Determined by combining claims data for all lines
and running the simulation again - The other RBC reserve for general insurance is
the unexpired risk reserve - Generally obtained by applying best estimate
ultimate loss ratio to unexpired premium reserve.
In addition PAD required on the URR - Normal distribution assumption applied to assets
to determine asset risk charges at 95
confidence limit - The best estimate plus PAD takes us to 75
confidence limit.
45GENERAL INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Liability risk charges based on the same normal
distribution assumption will take us
from 75 confidence limit to 95 confidence limit - In Singapore, we determined liability risk
charges by collecting claims data from a
number of insurers and applied bootstrapping to
the best estimate plus PAD after allowing for
the diversification effect for both claim
reserves and unexpired risk reserves - This provides the liability risk charges. This is
added to the asset risk charges (both
credit risk and market risk) - The asset concentration risk charges are simply
100 of an excessive investment according to a
pre-determined table in any one asset - Adding them up gives the total risk charges for a
general insurer
46LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
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47LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Determination of life insurance liabilities
follows the same principles as applied to
assets and general insurance liabilities - The artificial net premium valuation of
liabilities is replaced by an explicit
prospective analysis of future expected cash
flows arising from each policy - The actuary should project cash flows forward
over the expected contract term taking into
account any options which could extend the
contract term, such as term policies with
renewable options - The approach requires a projection of expected
future payments and receipts taking explicitly
into account actual premiums, investment income
and investment expenses, mortality and morbidity
benefits, surrender benefits, lapses,
distribution costs, management expenses, claim
expenses ( if not in management expenses),
reinsurance premiums and recoveries, tax, options
and guarantee costs
48LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- It should be noted that this cash flow projection
takes explicitly into account expected future
bonuses for participating policies and expected
shareholders future dividends - These are on the actuarys best estimate
assumptions. An additional margin is required to
allow for adverse deviation and this would be the
actuarys estimate of what the assumptions
would be at 75 confidence interval. - The liability risk charges are such as to
increase the confidence limit from 75 to
95. - The liability risk charges are prescribed
percentages to apply to best estimate mortality,
morbidity, renewal expense, persistency etc - To illustrate, if the actuarys best estimate
mortality assumption was 50 TMO 97 and his 75
confidence interval assumption were 58 TMO 97,
the mortality component of the liability risk
charges would be set at, say, 135 of the best
estimate mortality assumption i.e. 67.5 TMO 97
49LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- A logical distinction is made between liabilities
which are guaranteed (non-participating business,
basic sum assured, attaching bonus of
participating business) and liabilities which are
not guaranteed (future bonuses) - The discount rate for guaranteed liabilities
would be a risk-free interest rate i.e.
the yield on Government securities of
appropriate duration. The question of
appropriate duration provides some difficulties
since there are no Government bonds with
durations as long as many of the liabilities - Malaysia specifies that the risk-free discount
rate should be equal to Government bond yields
for durations up to 10 years and for cash flow
after 10 years, the discount rate is the 10 years
Government bond yield
50LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- The justification is that with a normal yield
curve, yields for durations greater than 10
years would be higher than the yield for 10 years
duration - Therefore conservative.
- The discount rate for non-guaranteed liabilities
i.e. future bonuses and future shareholders
dividends should be greater than the risk-free
rate to reflect the non-guaranteed nature of
these liabilities - Singapore directs that the best estimate of the
investment return of the fund should be used - Malaysia prescribes it a little more by directing
the risk-free rate plus a margin should be used.
The margin is the difference between the yield of
A rated bond of same duration and the
risk-free rate
51LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Solvency II in Europe does it differently. The
discount rate is proposed to be the discount rate
which equates the discounted value of future
expected asset cash flows to the current asset
market value - The fact that liabilities will generally be
longer than the asset duration for life insurers
introduces an asset/liability mismatching risk - This applies to the value of the guaranteed
liabilities and the value of fixed interest
investments.
52LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Suppose V is the liability including PAD based on
risk-free discount rate and A is
the fair value of the assets - Calculate V1 and V2 based on increasing and
decreasing interest rates - Both Singapore and Malaysia specify the increases
and decreases in absolute amount terms by
duration such as 1.5 for 1 year to 0.8 for 20
years but it might be an improvement to
specify the increases and decreases in percentage
terms by duration - Calculate A1 and A2 based on increasing and
decreasing interest rates - Suppose A-V S, A1-V1S1 and A2-V2S2, the
asset/liability mismatching risk charge the
higher reduction in surplus under the increasing
and decreasing interest rate assumptions
53LIFE INSURANCE LIABILITIES
- Total risk charges for life insurers are the
asset risk charges - (credit and market risk) plus the
asset/liability mismatching risk plus asset
concentration risk plus the insurance liability
risk charges - Liability risk charges are determined by V-V
where V is the recalculated value of the
liabilities based on the 95 confidence limit
assumptions and V is the value of the
liabilities at the 75 confidence level
54CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
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55CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
- Key measure of the financial health of an insurer
in a risk-based capital regime is the
Capital Adequacy Ratio - This is the ratio of capital remaining after
taking into account the best estimate plus PAD
liabilities divided by the total of the various
risk charges - The Capital Adequacy Ratio and the progress of it
over the years is an early warning to the
regulator for progressive action
56CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
- Both Singapore and Malaysia have set minimum
Capital Adequacy Ratios - Capital can be split into permanently available
capital such as shareholders paid-up
capital, retained surpluses and any property
revaluation reserve - termed Tier 1 capital and
other capital of a less permanent nature - The key feature of Tier 1 capital is that it is
available to policyholders in the event of
liquidation - One point is that the investment of such capital
has consequential asset risk charges and these
should be added to the total risk charges before
determining CAR
57CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
- The method to determine fair value of assets
including derivatives is contained in IFRS 39.
Therefore IFRS 39 should be introduced at the
same time as Risk-based Capital - Also IFRS 4 focuses on the differences between
insurance and investment products and the
standard of disclosure to assist the layman in
assessing the financial health of the insurer - This should also be introduced at the same time.
- Sufficient time should be allowed for testing the
financial impact of Risk-based Capital to the
industry in general - Its also important that the introduction of
Risk-based Capital is not regarded simply as a
compliance matter but as a powerful means of
improving insurance companies financially to the
benefit of shareholders and policyholders alike.
58Thank you