INTRODUCTORY MATERIAL: 1

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INTRODUCTORY MATERIAL 1
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THE SCIENCES

• PHYSICAL SCIENCES
• BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

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WHAT ARE WE STUDYING?
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• TECHNOLOGY
• PHYSICAL
• EFFECTS
• BEHAVIORAL
• POLICY CAN EFFECT TECHNOLOGY DECISIONS
• STEM CELL RESEARCH
• TECHNOLOGY CAN EFFECT POLICY DECISIONS?
• THE DANISH SOCIAL LAWS (1990)

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THREE READINGS

• PHYSICAL SCIENCES
• CONSERVATION OF MOMENTUM
• BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
• LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
• BOTH?
• CHAOS THEORY

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DEFINITIONS

• SYSTEMS
• CLOSED vs. OPEN SYSTEMS
• MOMENTUM

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CONSERVATION OF MOMENTUM

• TWO OBJECTS
• MULTIPLE OBJECTS
• HOW DOES THIS APPLY TO BEHAVIORAL SITUATIONS (I
  USE IT AS AN ANALOGY..)

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FIRST RULE

• EVERY ACTION HAS MULTIPLE EFFECTS.

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LAW OF UNITENDED CONSEQUENCES

• ROBERT MERTON 1936.
• ACTIONS OF PEOPLE AND ESPECIALLY OF
  GOVERNMENTS ALWAYS HAVE THE EFFECTS THAT ARE
  UNEXPECTED OR UNINTENDED.

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WHY

• IGNORANCE
• NOT KNOWING POSSIBLE EFFECT
• ERROR
• IMMEDIACY OF INTEREST
• KNOWING, BUT IGNORING
• BASIC VALUES
• ETHICS OF HARD WORK. WEALTH. SLOTH
• SELF DEFEATING PREDICTION
• (SELF FULFILLING PROPHECY)

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• MERTON
• NO BLANKET STATEMENT CATEGORICALLY AFFIRMING OR
  DENYING THE PRACTICAL FEASIBILITY OF ALL SOCIAL
  PLANNING IS WARRANTED.

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EXAMPLE 1

• QUOTA ON STEEL IMPORTS
• INCREASES STEEL PRODUCTION IN U.S.
• MORE STEEL JOBS
• RAISES PRICE ON STEEL
• CAR COSTS GO UP
• CAR IMPORTS GO UP
• CAR PRODUCTION IN U.S. GOES DOWN
• FEWER AUTO INDUSTRY JOBS
• GOOD OR BAD?

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EXAMPLE 2

• SOCIAL SECURITY
• DESIRED EFFECT
• SECURITY
• UNINTENDED EFFECT
• REDUCED SAVINGS
• FEEL LESS SECURE (OPPOSITE EFFECT)
• LESS MONEY AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT
• SLOWER ECONOMIC GROWTH, LOWER WAGES

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OTHER EXAMPLES

• SIDE EFFECTS OF MEDICINE
• ADVERSE, OR, BENEFICIAL
• ASPIRIN
• ADVERSE ULCERS
• BENEFICIAL HEART ILLNESSES
• RABBIT FOR SUPPORT OVERPOPULATION
• OUTLAWING DRUGS
• RENT CONTROL

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INFO TECH EXAMPLES?

• COMPUTER STORAGE WILL REDUCE PAPER USAGE
• HAS IT?
• (DO YOU PRINT OUT A DOC BEFORE READING?)
• COMPUTERS WILL MAKE TYPING FASTER?
• HAS IT?
• EXPECTATIONS CHANGE.
• WE EXPECT MORE ACCURACY BETTER FORMATTING.
• WE WANT FASTER RESPONSES.

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• WE ARE INTERESTED IN BEHAVIORAL EFFECTS
• WHAT EFFECTS IT HAS ON US
• HOW WE BEHAVE
• SO,
• LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ARE IMPORTANT TO
  US.

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SHORT TERM vs. LONG TERM EFFECTS
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SHORT TERM vs. LONG TERM EFFECTS

• THE EFFECTS MAY BE SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM.
• SHORT TERM BENEFITS VS. LONG TERM COSTS

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PHYSICAL PHENOMENON

• DO UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES AFFECT PHYSICAL
  PHENOMENON?
• A MAN WAS SMOKING AS HE FILLED GAS. THE CAR BLOWS
  UP.
• HE DIDNT INTEND TO BLOW THE CAR UP BUT IT DID
  HAPPEN.
• IS THIS WHAT THE LAW IS TAKING ABOUT?
• (UNEXPECTED, BUT PREDICTABLE)

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CHAOS THEORY

• SIMULATION
• A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF A PHENOMENON WHICH
  CONNECTS INPUTS TO OUTPUTS
• SIMULATION HELPS YOU UNDERSTAND THE CHANGES IN
  THE OUTPUTS FOR DIFFERENT INPUTS
• (USED IN WEATHER FORECASTING CHEMICAL PLANTS ETC?

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STATES OF EQUILIBRIUM

• KINDS OF ORDER
• STEADY STATE
• VARIABLES DO NOT CHANGE
• (BOOK SITTING ON DESK)
• STATIC EQUILIBRIUM
• PERIODIC STATE
• SYSTEM IN LOOP
• DYNAMIC EQUILIBRIUM
• (PENDULUM)
• SPIRAL
• DID NOT SETTLE TO A SINGLE POINT
• NEVER REPEATED THE SAME PATTERN
• (LORENZ ATTRACTOR)

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DIVERSION

• LORENZ DISCOVERIES NOT ACKNOWLEDGED TILL OTHERS
  RE-DISCOVERED .
• (LIFE IS NOT FAIR.)

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PHYSICAL EXAMPLES

• MATHEMATICAL
• MANDELBROT SELF-SIMILARITY
• KOCH CURVES
• FEIGENBAUM RATE OF BIFURCATIONS
• PHYSICAL
• FLIPPING A COIN
• DRIPPING FAUCET
• POPULATION GROWTH(?)
• GROWTH OF A FERN
• ART
• DRAWING
• MUSIC

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BEHAVIORAL?

• DOES CHAOS THEORY APPLY TO BEHAVIORAL PHENOMENON?
• SMALL CHANGES CAN LEAD TO BIG EFFECTS.
• SELF-SIMILARITY?

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FRACTAL DIMENSION

• http//math.bu.edu/DYSYS/chaos-game/node6.html
• (YOU DONT HAVE TO KNOW WHAT IT IS NOT RELEVANT
  TO OUR COURSE BUT IT IS MOST FASCINATING.)

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• SMALL CHANGES IN INPUT LEADING TO LARGE EFFECTS
  IN OUTPUT (SENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS)
• SHOWN IN SIMULATING WEATHER
• (BUTTERFLY EFFECT)
• (IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WEATHER?)
• SEEMINGLY CHAOTIC
• BUT THERE ARE ORDERLY PATTERNS

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CONCLUSIONTHREE PRINCIPLES

• ANY ACTION MOST LIKELY HAS MULTIPLE EFFECTS.
• SOME OF THOSE EFFECTS MAY BE UNINTENDED.
• SMALL ACTIONS MAY HAVE BIG EFFECTS