Hawaii Energy Policy Forum Energy Efficient Transportation Strategies Act 254 Working Group

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Hawaii Energy Policy ForumEnergy Efficient
Transportation StrategiesAct 254 Working Group

• Lewison Lem, Ph.D.
• Parsons Brinckerhoff, Consultant
• Hawaii Energy Policy Forum
• September 28, 2007
• LemL_at_pbworld.com

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Overview of Presentation

• National and Global Context for State of Hawaii
  Project
• Hawaii Transportation Energy Trends and Forecasts
• Discussion regarding Goals and Benchmarks for
  Transportation Energy Efficiency in Hawaii

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• National and Global Context for State of Hawaii
  Project

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Individual State and Country Actions are Moving
Towards Regional Cooperation and Consistency

• States and Countries are acting to address energy
  efficiency in the transportation sector
• Cities, Counties, and Metro Regions are also
  adopting and implementing innovative strategies
• Individual state and country actions are moving
  towards regional multi-state cooperation and
  consistency
• Northeastern States
• Western States
• European Union Countries
• Asia Pacific Region

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• 2. Hawaii Transportation Energy Trends and
  Forecast

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Growth in Number of Vehicles and Population
Affecting Overall Fuel Demand More Than Average
Vehicle Fuel Consumption
Average Annual Changes 1984/1990 to 2005/2006
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Statewide Trend in Gasoline and Diesel Demand
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Annual Change in Statewide Gasoline Demand 1984
to 2006
Demand for gasoline 1.8 percent annual on
average
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Population and Daily Visitors Statewide
Population (including visitors) 1.1 percent
annually Daily visitors 1.3 percent
annually
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Vehicle Registrations
Number of registered vehicles 1.5 percent
annual on average
Note no annual change data available for 1990.
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Average Fuel Consumption Per Registered Vehicle
Change in fuel consumption per vehicle 0.0
percent annual on average
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To Summarize

• More People and even more Vehicles have been
  Increasing the Demand for Transportation Fuels
  over the past 20 Years

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Historical and Projected Statewide Gasoline Demand
DBEDT forecast based on historical trends 1.5
percent average annual increase to 2015
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• 3. Discussion of Goals and Benchmarks for
  Transportation Energy Efficiency in Hawaii

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Five Categories of StrategiesEnergy Efficiency
for Transportation

• Transportation System Efficiency
• Location Efficiency
• Vehicle Design
• Operational Efficiency
• Alternative Fuels

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Summary of Japan and Singapore programs and
strategies

• Japan
• Transit Oriented Development
• Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport
• Top Runner program
• Green Tax program
• Eco-Drive program
• Singapore
• National Car Registration Quota
• Dynamic Congestion Charging
• Land Transport Authority
• Fuel Economy Labeling Scheme
• Green Vehicle Rebate Scheme

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GHG emissions, JapanCommitment 6 reduction
from 1990

• Kyoto Protocol ratification June 2002

Source Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office, NIES,
Japan http//www-gio.nies.go.jp/download/6gas_2005
E-gioweb.xls
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CO2 emissions and target to meet Kyoto target
from transportation
305 mn t
46 mn to be reduced from existing measures
261 mn t
54.9 mn t
9 mn t to be reduced from new measures
Target emission of transport sector in 2010
20.4
15.1
250 mn t
217 mn t
How to achieve? Fuel economy 21 mn
t Promotion of LEV 3 mn t Sulfur free fuel
1.2 mn t No vehicle idling 0.6 mn t Heavy duty
vehicle speed limit 0.8 mn t Improved traffic
flow 28.3 mn t
1990
2002
2010
All units are CO2 equivalent All years are Fiscal
Year Prepared by author from Kyoto Target
Achievement Plan, 2005, MOE Japan and GHG
Inventory of Japan Rounding has been done the
exact no is 304.9 mn t for 2010.
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Example of Northern California AAA Adopted
Policies (2004/5)

• Focuses on More Consumer Choices
• More choices in alternative fuels will give
  consumers more options for vehicle and fuel
  purchase and use.
• A wider range of fuel efficient vehicles will
  give consumers more choices as they make vehicle
  purchase decisions and decide which vehicle to
  use for any given trip.
• More choices in modes of travel will allow
  consumers to decide what mode of travel makes the
  most sense for any given trip

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Example of Southern California Energy Planning
(Draft, 2007)

• Outcomes
• Decrease the regions consumption of fossil
  fuels 25 from 1990 levels by 2020
• Increase the share of renewable energy
  generation in the region to 20 by 2010
• Strategic Initiatives
• Improve Jobs/Housing Balance
• Mileage-Based Vehicle Insurance
• Parking Cash-Out
• Congestion Pricing
• Freight Mode Shift
• Property Taxes related to energy consumption

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Key Questions for Discussion

• What should be the State of Hawaiis
  Transportation Energy Efficiency Goals?
• What benchmarks should the State of Hawaii use to
  assess progress toward the goals that are agreed
  upon ?

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DEFINING GOALS and BENCHMARKS

• VISION Our preferred future
• OBJECTIVE What we want to achieve our desired
  long term outcome to achieve the vision.
  --Timeless Intent to Act
• GOALS Short to medium range action statements
  what we want to achieve in 3-5 years
• BENCHMARKS/MILESTONES Performance targets
  indicating success or progress toward achieving
  goals/objectives
• INDICATORS/KEY RESULTS Performance Measures
  Metrics (Data)

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DEFINING STRATEGIES and ACTIONS

• STRATEGIES and ACTIONS What we will do to
  achieve the goals and objective. Plan should
  include
• Objective
• Goals
• Actions
• Responsible Parties
• Timeline
• Required Resources
• Potential Obstacles
• Evaluation

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GOALS and OBJECTIVE

• OBJECTIVE An energy efficient transportation
  system for Hawaii while still protecting mobility
  and choice
• GOALS
• Option 1

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Goals

• More choices in modes of travel will allow
  consumers to decide what mode of travel makes the
  most sense for any given trip
• More choices in alternative fuels will give
  consumers more options for vehicle and fuel
  purchase and use.
• Increasing the fuel efficiency of Hawaiis
  vehicle population by incentivizing consumers
  choices as they make vehicle purchase decisions
  and decide which vehicle to use for any given
  trip.
• Consideration and Evaluation of constraints
  relating to socially acceptable projected
  economic consequences (ie costs and potential
  benefits) and long-term cost-effectiveness

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BENCHMARKS and MILESTONESstrategies and actions

• Government incentives/subsidies
• Hawaii known as energy efficient way to get
  around (energy transportation paradise)
• Portland eg car-sharing to reduce fleet (eg
  zipcar)
• Big island bus service innovations (free
  ridership)
• Increase transit ridership
• Incentivize Fuel efficient cars (eg free parking)
  SOV in zipper lanes (like electric vehicles)
• Increase share of shared ride (carpool/vanpool/etc
  ) modes of travel
• Telecommuting

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More ideas

• Bike lane and HOV lane in all new highway
  segments
• Requirements for more bicycle friendly programs
• Bikes on boat bus bike parking/lockers
• Include energy assessment in transportation plans
  (incl. project fuel demand)
• Collection of additional data - user
  satisfaction surveys on a regular basis (eg
  every other year)
• More and better data on how are we doing, mine
  the data
• Hawaii (GE) energy/transport model/scenario
  analysis