Energy Wildcards

1
Energy Wildcards Their Societal Impact

• Francis Stabler
• Future Tech LLC
• For
• World Future 2009
• Innovation and Creativity in a Complex World
• July 19, 2009

2
What are Energy Wildcards?

• Energy sources with
• Low probability of success
• Very high return if successful
• Disruptions for business as usual
• Causes of major change in related systems

3
Examples of Energy Wildcards

• Nuclear Fusion
• High temperature with magnetic containment
• Bussard medium temperature operation
• Space Solar Power
• LENR Low energy nuclear reactions
• Vacuum Energy / Zero Point Energy (ZPE)
• Anti-matter reactions

4
Energy Applications

• Mobile Applications
• Cell phones, laptops, I-Pods,
• Transportation
• Cars, trucks, trains, ships,
• Utilities Industry
• Centralized or distributed

5
Energy wildcards could

• Replace batteries for mobile applications
• Replace liquid Hydrocarbons for transportation
• Replace coal, oil, natural Gas, and uranium fuel
  for electric utilities

• Provide convenience
• Eliminate carbon dioxide issues for
  Transportation
• Eliminate carbon dioxide and waste issues

6
Wild Card Energy Scenario Utility Power

• Fusion plants using deuterium are developed
• Capable of producing electricity at a lower cost
  than coal plants
• No radioactive waste or CO2
• Used as a heat source, it will allow retrofit of
  existing coal and nuclear power plants
• Component production rapidly developed

7
Impact on Economy

• Difficulty for utilities to raise the capital
  needed for new construction or upgrades
• Potential of increased consumer cost of
  electricity to fund the construction conversion
• Acceptable with a long term promise of electric
  energy price reduction?
• Similar difficulty for investments in
  manufacturing facilities for components to
  support fusion plant construction
• How to built component plants without utility
  commitment to power plant construction?
• Which comes first?
• Global production global sales

8
Impact on Economy

• Building boom for new and retrofit power plants
  (20 to 50 years years?)
• Initial plants are for additional needed capacity
  
• Boom would include component and generator
  suppliers
• Some power plant construction delays while
  factories are built to produce fusion generator
  components
• Allows construction of new electric plants in
  locations currently off-limits (California?)
• Disrupt and end the coal industry over time,
  including transportation of coal
• Potential coal shortages during conversion period
  due to lack of investment
• Some impact on natural gas industry

9
How long will it take to replace coal, natural
gas and uranium fueled electric power plants?
Of fusion power plants
Aggressive Conversion Timeline
Continued construction of fossil fuel plants
Earliest that most electric power plants will be
fusion based
Construction of fusion power plants start
Production fusion design ready
Earliest that half of the worlds electric plants
are fusion based
Proof of concept Demo of fusion power plant
Earliest that most new power plants will be
fusion based
10
Impact on Economy

• Should there be government loan programs for
  non-polluting fusion power plant construction?
• New, small, essential, high tech industry to
  extract deuterium from sea water
• Increased need for an improved Smart Grid
  system
• Disruption of wind and solar power industry
• Challenge to provide power at a lower cost than
  fusion
• Wind and solar power face an ongoing disadvantage
  of being intermittent and not useable for base
  load

11
Impact on Society

• Will US society really accept the safety of
  nuclear power, even if it is fusion?
• Will the public understand the difference?
• What can be done to improve public acceptance?
• Reduced emphasis on energy conservation?
• Stronger push for electric vehicles?
• Increased global energy availability
• Can raise the standard of living, especially in
  countries with limited natural energy sources
• Will increase economic growth China, India, US
• Improved global health standards due to reduced
  burning of coal, charcoal, wood, and dung

12
Impact on Society

• Abundant, sustainable energy can end many
  shortages
• Clean brackish or salt water pump it where
  needed
• Recover materials currently to expensive to
  refine
• Too often groups attempt to control others with
  fears of real or imagined shortages of ___ (fill
  in the blank).
• This is difficult if shortages can be eliminated
  with abundant energy
• Eliminate need for nuclear fission plants and
  production of radioactive elements that enable
  nuclear weapon production

13
Wild Card Energy Scenario for Transportation

• LENR or ZPE energy modules replace fossil fuel
  engines for transportation
• A range of module sizes capable of powering cars,
  trucks, trains, ships, etc
• No emissions other than heat, propulsion with
  electric power
• Refurbish, or refuel every 1 to 5 years
• Lower cost per year than equivalent conventional
  engines and fossil fuel

14
Which areas of the world will be most effected by
the loss of oil sales?
15
Petroleum Replacement Impact

• Given small power systems that replace fossil
  fuel engines in cars and trucks, there will be -
• Change in oil prices short term long term?
• Direction of change not obvious or easily
  predicted
• Long term economic collapse in mid-east, Russia,
  and petroleum exporting countries in S. America
  and Africa
• Political and economic chaos in numerous
  countries
• Increased terrorist activity?

16
Petroleum replacement economic impact

• Transition impact on gasoline and diesel fuel
  refining, distribution, and retail sales.
• Employment shifts, economic disruption
• Long term loss of service stations in their
  present form economic and social impact
• Concern for fuel availability as demand drops
• Fuel availability for off-road agricultural
  equipment?
• Need to establish a new tax system to build and
  maintain the highway system
• Change in vehicle pricing as first 1 to 5 years
  of fuel cost is included in initial price of
  the vehicle
• Refueling cost every 1 to 5 years

17
Impact on Society

• Change in views on conservation
• No Carbon emissions and no fuel shortage
  (virtually unlimited fuel)
• Why not big cars and SUVs?
• Will global warming be reversed?
• Loss of agricultural production as CO2 is reduced
  and world cools
• Will we enter an ice age?
• Increased use of electric power instead of
  chemical energy

18
How long will it take to replace petroleum for
transportation with LENR/ZEP generators?
Of Vehicle Fleet
Conversion Timeline for US
Earliest that most of the car truck fleet will
be LENR based
Production cars and trucks on market
Production LENR design ready
Earliest that half of the car truck fleet can
be LENR based
Proof of concept Demo of LENR generator
Earliest that most new motor vehicles are LENR
based
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Other Global Transportation Changes due to
Petroleum Replacement

• LENR/ZPE electric transit buses
• Electric based trucks long haul and delivery
  vehicles
• Non-polluting electric trains conversion of
  diesel engines and new designs
• Potential for electric propeller driven aircraft
  with no pollution
• LENR based ship propulsion

20
Questions Discussion What are other
consequences of carbon-free, sustainable energy
for utilities and transportation?