APA UpperMidwest Four State Conference

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APA Upper-Midwest Four State Conference

• October 4, 2006

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Center for Transit-Oriented Development

• Create a national marketplace for TOD, working
  with cities, transit agencies, developers,
  investors and communities.
• A collaboration with Reconnecting America, The
  Center for Neighborhood Technology, Strategic
  Economics, and real estate and transit experts
• Performing joint research effort funded by FTA
  and HUD to look at linkage between TOD and
  affordable housing

http//www.reconnectingamerica.org
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Overview

• What is the HT Affordability Index?
• Why / Purpose
• How does it work Model Mechanics and Background
• Who Potential Applications
• When Project Timeline and Index Availability

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What is the Housing Transportation
Affordability Index?
A tool to measure the 2 largest household costs
housing and transportation by neighborhood.
By measuring these costs, the HT Affordability
Index is also measuring the quality,
attractiveness, and convenience, of the
neighborhod.
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Why The Power of Information

• Brookings Urban Markets and Living Cities
  Initiatives

Healthy Urban Commun- ities
Actionable Knowledge
Urban Market Actors
Data Reporters
Collection Agencies
Information Analysts
Access Tools

• Pilot Projects Information Innovations to Spur
  Markets at Local Level
• Housing/Transportation Affordability Index
• PAID-Using Utility Payments to Bolster Credit
  Scores
• Map/Analysis/Action on Correlates of Neighborhood
  Decline and Resurgence
• Intelligent Middleware to Understand Urban
  Markets
• Dec Support Tools for Urban Real Estate Markets
• PPND Pittsburgh Community Info System

• Federal/State Urban Information Policy
• NICS Infrastructure for Community Statistics
• Specific data issues of interest to urban
  markets
• ACS, GMP, LED
• Monitor surveys and data collection activities
• Scan federal urban data/information issues

UMI Program Areas/Activities
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Why To Understand affordability, its impacts,
and potential solutions

• Since at least 1984, Housing and Transportation
  have been the 2 largest household costs
  consuming at least 50 of income for the average
  household

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Why To Understand affordability, its impacts,
and potential solutions

• The more households spend on housing and
  transportation, the less they have to spend on
• Savings
• Education
• Healthcare- preventive and acute
• Entertainment
• Retail and other goods in the local economy
• If we can define the reasons for high
  neighborhood transportation costs, we can
  understand
• What to build?
• Where to build, and where to live?
• Who benefits?

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Background and Model Mechanics
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What drives HT Costs?

• We know housing costs and what drives them
• Location, location, location and
• Housing size, construction, materials, amenities
  and
• Fees, taxes
• What about transportation costs? .Its more than
  the price at the pump or the price of the car
• Location, location, location and
• Car costs, annual miles, gasoline costs, transit
  fares
• Household size and income
• But total transportation costs by location are
  not reported ...until now

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What about Location?

• Transportation costs vary by place, depending on
• Access to services
• Walkable destinations
• Extent and frequency of transit
• Access to jobs
• Density
• Households who live in location efficient
  neighborhoodsregardless of size and income
• own fewer vehicles and drive fewer miles, and
  therefore have lower transportation costs
  (Location Efficiency Study. CNT, STPP, NRDC,
  2000)

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Modeling the T of the HT Index

• We analyze the Urban Form and the Household
  Characteristics of neighborhoods to predict the
  three major components of total household
  transportation costs.

Autos Owned Auto Use Transit Use
Total Transport Cost
x price /unit
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Independent Local Environment Variables Density
Measures
Local Environment Variable
Autos/Household
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Independent Local Environment Variables Mobility
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Independent Local Environment Variables Mobility
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Independent Local Environment Variables Mobility
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Independent Local Environment Variables Access
to Jobs and Amenities
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Independent Household Variables
Autos/Household
Autos/Household
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Dependent Variables
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Can This
Predict this?
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Optimizing the Model

• Combining the variables into a model
• Multiple regression modeling to fit each of the
  3 dependent variables to the 7 independent urban
  form variables
• Then same modeling is used to fit the 2
  household variables to the 7 urban independent
  variables
• for a total of 21 fits to create the pilot model
• Model development corroborates with Location
  Efficiency Study
• The 7 urban form variables, and the two household
  variables were all needed to optimize the model
• the Urban Form variables are more important than
  Household variables (in large urban areas)

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VS. Auto Ownership
Seven Urban Form Variables





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Model Mechanics

• Example of fit for Auto Ownership

Fit of HH Variable Controlling for Local
Environment Variables
Fit Example for an Independent Variable
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Pilot Results Minneapolis St. Paul
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Modeled by Neighborhood, Income, and Size,
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Applications

• Proposed
• Actual to Date

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Proposed Users and Uses

• Community Groups
• Campaigns for transit, community reinvestment,
  affordable housing, and smart growth
• Transportation for Livable Communities, Twin
  Cities
• Red Line Coalition, Roseland Community in Chicago
• Business Groups
• Common ground for community, government, and
  business on choices about development, housing,
  and public investment
• Atlanta Quality Growth Task Force
• Development and Real Estate Community
• New tool for realtors, developers, and bankers to
  understand, market and capitalize on relative
  affordability of different neighborhoods
• Realtor.com
• Support Academic Research
• EJ, Effects of Sprawl, Poverty, Economic
  Development
• Temple University Metropolitan Philadelphia
  Indicators Project

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Proposed Users and Uses

• Transit Agencies
• Estimate benefit or cost to households from
  service and system changes
• Promote transit ridership with savings campaigns
• State
• Cost of living as criteria for state housing
  transportation plans, funds
• Legislate alignment across jurisdictions to
  improve cost of living
• MPO and County planning
• Reduce Transportation Costs as a Goal in long
  range plans
• Target funding programs for TOD, livable
  communities, etc.
• Transportation impacts of fair housing plans,
  (King County HCD)
• Municipalities
• Support changes to ordinances that would better
  support transit use, and HT affordability e.g.,
  parking, height, density, inclusionary zoning,
  etc.
• Goal in comprehensive plans

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Champaign-Urbana Mass Transit District Long Range
Mobility Study

• Transport costs are lowest in MTD Service Area
• Substantial Growth is occurring outside this area

DRAFT
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Champaign-Urbana Mass Transit District

• Distance to Employment and Amenities has a strong
  relationship to auto ownership

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Understanding the Model Results
DRAFT RESULTS
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Denver TOD Strategic Planning

• For Mayors office and Enterprise
• Comparing incomes of residents to transportation
  costs and proposed new lines
• Concerns about gentrification, getting good TOD,
  development costs

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Chicago Area Planning Agencies

• CNT is advocating for its use by RTA in project
  selection, CMAP in Framework plan, individual
  municipalities

• Standard Measures and Criterion
• Sewer connections
• New Jobs
• Median Incomes
• Congestion Levels
• Commute Time

• Alternative Criterion and Measures
• Infrastructure costs/capita
• Jobs in low T cost areas
• of income on HT
• Commuters by non-SOV
• Neighborhood mobility levels

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Can Households Afford Where they Live?
A new way to view regions
High H
High HT
Low HT
High T
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Working Households (20,000 to

High H Pushed (22)

high housing costs, overcrowding to live near
jobs and transit

48 on HT

High T Pulled (25)

pulled toward low housing, away from jobs and
best transportation

60 on HT

Low HT Stretched (28)

high incomes, employment centers, little
affordable housing

59 on HT

High HT Left Behind (25)

fewer jobs, fewer amenities and services

53 on HT

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Transit Zones Affordability Index

• Proximity to transit without density, services,
  jobs, and walkability will not alone lower
  transportation costs

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Timeline and Availability
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Project Timeline
Fall 2006
Winter 2006-2007
Spring 2007

• Website available by March 31
• Available on DataPlace.org
• Free and fee-based information
• Use in studies and plans for regions, cities,
  advocates

• Developing website
• Reviewing new results with advisory committee
• Operations plan to maintain model and website
• Use in studies and plans for regions, cities,
  advocates

• Creating 6 versions of the model by metro type
• Applying new models to 49 metro areas
• Adjusting prices for autos and gasoline
• Study on 28 metros for NHC released 10/11/06

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Project Information

• Center for Neighborhood Technology
• Full white paper on the model and Presentations
  at www.cnt.org/resources
• carrie_at_cnt.org or 773.269.4093
• Brookings Metropolitan Program, UMI
• http//www.brookings.edu/metro/umi.htm
• Center for Transit-Oriented Development
• http//www.reconnectingamerica.org/html/TOD/index.
  htm