Peering Through the Clouds: The Real Estate Outlook for the Southeast

1
Peering Through the CloudsThe Real Estate
Outlook for the Southeast

• GEORGIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
• Broker/Manager ConferenceJune 5, 2008

2
U.S. Economy has Hit a Rough Patch

• Recession?
• Job Market Weak
• Consumers are Jittery
• Inflation Hitting Home
• Energy Prices Remain High
• Financial Markets Still Jumpy
• Housing Market Weak in Many Areas

3
Economy is Skirting Recession
Chg Annual Rate
4
Consumers Have Pulled Back
Chg Annual Rate
5
Consumers are Jittery

• Weak Retail sales in March
• 1.8 Total sales
• -3.4 Autos
• -7.2 Furniture
• -7.1 Building materials
• 4.8 Food
• 18.8 Gasoline
• 43 of American say economic conditions are poor
  and 83 say they are getting worse (Gallup, April
  10, 2008)
• 42 of households say their financial situation
  has deteriorated in the past year (Harris Poll,
  March 12, 2008)

6
Job Market Retrenches in 2008
thousands
7
Businesses Have Slowed Investment
Chg Annual Rate
8
Export Growth Picking Up
9
Residential Investment Has Plummeted
Chg Annual Rate
10
New Home Sales Tumble
11
Existing Homes SalesRetreat from Boom
12
Wide Regional Differences in Foreclosure Rates

Source Mortgage Bankers Assn (4Q07)
13
Highest Foreclosure Rates in the Upper Midwest
Georgia 1.84 U.S. 2.04

Source Mortgage Bankers Assn (4Q07)
14
Job Growth in the Regionhas Stalled
Chg from year earlier
15
Housing Starts Retreat
thousands
16
2007 was First Decline in SalesSince Early 1990s
17
Existing Home Price Growth Varies Widely in
Southeast

18
Real Estate Market Expected to Strengthen in Late
2008
19
Consumer Messages

• Wealth Accumulation
• The Power of Leverage
• Social Benefit of Homeownership
• REALTORS are Consumer Advocates
• No National Real Estate Market
• Time to Buy?

20

• Questions
• Paul C Bishop
• Managing Director, Research
• NAR Washington, DC
• 202-383-1246
• pbishop_at_realtors.org
• www.realtor.org/research