What is the True Cost and Impact of Wildfires

1
What is the True Cost and Impact ofWildfires?

• Based on a Preliminary Report
• Of the Old, Grand Prix/Padua Fires
• By Alex E. Dunn

2
Traditional Fire Costs

• Suppression Costs
• Personnel
• Equipment
• Engines
• Aircraft
• Dozers
• Material
• Retardant
• Food
• Tools
• Hired Equipment

3
Traditional Fire Impacts

• Life Safety
• Public
• Evacuation
• Injury/Death
• First Responders
• Injury and Death
• Property
• Homes
• Businesses
• Out Buildings
• Infrastructure

4
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75

5
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 61,335,684.26
• Or just 3.3

6
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 3.3
• Insured Loss
• 975,000,000
• 51.29

7
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 3.3
• Insured Loss
• Edison Loss
• 100,000,000
• 5.3

8
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 3.3
• Insured Loss
• Edison Loss
• California Speedway
• 25,175,000
• 1.3

9
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 3.3
• Insured Loss
• Edison Loss
• California Speedway
• Hotels/Restaurants
• 200,000,000
• 10.5

10
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 3.3
• Insured Loss
• Edison Loss
• California Speedway
• Hotels/Restaurants
• Non Profit
• 4,832,149
• 0.25

11
Old, Grand Prix/Padua FiresTrue Costs

• True Fire Costs
• 1,900,936,258.75
• Suppression Costs
• 3.3
• Insured Loss
• Edison Loss
• California Speedway
• Hotels/Restaurants
• Non Profit
• Watershed Recovery
• 534,593,039.75
• 28.12

12
True Fire Costs

• Wildfires continue to impact communities on
  multiple scales
• Local
• Regional
• National
• Global

13
True Fire Costs

• Decreasing the severity of wildfires can benefit
  communities far away from the wildfire. These
  communities may not understand their stake in
  wildfire severity reduction strategies or the
  benefits they realize.
• Alex Dunn

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True Fire Costs

• Wildfires can create
• Severe socio-economic effects in ecosystems
  people depend on
• Severe bio-physical effects that in turn produce
  socio-economic effects
• Long-term effects that impact ecosystems for
  years.
• Alex Dunn

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True Fire Costs
16
True Fire Costs

• Water is Californias most important natural
  resource
• Northern 1/3 of state produces 70 of runoff
• Southern 2/3 of state uses 80
• Average available water is 71 million Acre
  Feet-range is 18-135 million acre feet
• Sierra Snow Pack is 25 of normal equates to
  17.75 million acre feet

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Fire Frequency/IntensityFeedback Loop

• Development in the WUI three times the rate
  outside the WUI
• Multi generational
• Extended families
• Development is Increasing draw on states
  watershed impacting watershed health

18
Fire Frequency/IntensityFeedback Loop

• Increased human activity equates to an increase
  in fire starts whether intentional or accidental

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Fire Frequency/IntensityFeedback Loop

• More people are at risk in a wildfire and in need
  of evacuation
• evacuation needs often force loss of or
  compromise perimeter control options. Rhode

20
Fire Frequency/IntensityFeedback Loop

• Homes are regularly built or re-built in harms
  way (fire corridors) despite historic evidence of
  danger

21
Fire Frequency/IntensityFeedback Loop

• Recent studies show a causal link between climate
  change and fire frequency
• All fires are a spontaneous release of
  sequestered carbon
• Released carbon contributes to greenhouse gas
  effect and climate change

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Breaking the Loop

• Suppression
• Increased fire suppression capacity has limits.
  Society cant provide or afford a fire engine at
  every house.
• Prevention
• Ember resistant building standards (2008)
• Intervention
• Improve Watershed and Forest Health to reduce
  intensity of wildfires
• Regional land use planning that considers impacts
  on watershed and forest health, minimizes post
  fire flooding, and reduces impacts on communities
  that share the same watershed and airshed
• Climate Change
• Opportunities to engage non traditional partners
  !!!!!

23
Factors that influence societies, governments
and personaldecision making processes

• Societies choose failure or success based on
  their perception of, among other factors, the
  ecological impact on human habitation.
  (Collapse by Jared Diamond)
• Governments become victims of cognitive
  dissonance and rigidity facts that conflict with
  strongly held beliefs lead to dissonance and a
  rigid hold to the old beliefs in spite of the new
  information. (The March of Folly by Barbara
  Tuchman)
• We personally make decisions to engage or not
  engage in self destructive behavior based on our
  perception of the impacts of that behavior. (The
  Inferno and Purgatorio by Dante)

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Breaking the Loop

• We-you and I, and our government must avoid
  plundering for our own ease and convenience, the
  precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot
  mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren
  without risking the loss also of their political
  and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to
  survive for all ages to come.