Drought Impacts

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Drought Impacts
Power Production for Boulder Canyon Project
Parker-Davis Project
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• Impacts To Date

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• Future Drought Impacts
• Boulder Canyon Project

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How Is Hoover Generation Impacted If Drought
Continues?

• Reduced Head as Lake Mead Storage Decreases
• Lake Mead Level Drops 10-15 ft. per year with
  min. objective release (8.23 MAF) from Powell
• Reduced Water Releases When Shortages are
  Implemented
• No Physical Restrictions But Turbine Output
  Decreases With Lower Elevation Water Releases

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Hoover Key Elevations
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Turbine Operation

• Design Head for Turbine Equates to About 1160 ft.
  Elevation
• Turbines Probably Able to Operate Below 1050 ft.
  (Minimum Power Pool) at Greatly Reduced Output
• Increased Cavitation Maintenance at Lower
  Elevations. More Operational Limitations.

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How Far Can Lake Mead Elevation Drop?

• Shortage Protection Criteria Determine the
  Elevation(s) at Which Water Deliveries are
  Reduced
• No Shortage Protection Criteria Adopted by
  Reclamation - Basin States Discussing
  Alternatives
• Absolute Floor Probably 1000 ft. (Nevada Intakes)

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Mitigation Measures

• Turbine Replacements
• Stainless Steel Wicket Gates
• Involvement In Shortage Protection Criteria/Basin
  States Discussions
• Operation of Desalter or Other Bypass
  Alternatives Reducing Over-Deliveries to Mexico

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Turbine Replacements

• Increased Capacity (10-15)
• Small Increase In Efficiency Energy
• Reduced OM Costs/Operational Limitations
• Cost Approximately 1.3M per Turbine
• Cost Effectiveness
• Quick Payback at Lower Elevations
• USBR Doing Preliminary Evaluation
• Replacements Done in Increments

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Stainless Steel Wicket Gates

• Increased Capacity (5)
• Small Increase In Efficiency Energy
• Reduced OM Costs
• Cost Approximately 1.0M per Turbine
• Cost Effectiveness
• Quick Payback Not Dependent Upon Elevation
• USBR Doing Preliminary Evaluation
• Replacements Done in Increments

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Shortage Protection Criteria

• Shortage Protection at Higher Elevations Equates
  to Higher Capacity Energy
• Same Amounts of Water is Delivered in Long Run
• Storage Between 1000 1050 3 MAF

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1100 ft. vs. 1050 ft. Avg Capacity 1573 MW vs
1409 MW (11.6 Diff) Avg Energy 3392 GWH vs
3174 MW (6.9 Diff) Same Total Water Deliveries
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Other Measures

• Reducing Bypass Flows to Mexico (Desalter or
  Fallowing)
• Additional Storage in Yuma Area Would Reduce
  Over-Deliveries to Mexico
• Combined Maximum Reduction in Releases Would be
  200 KAF or Less

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• Future Impacts
• Parker-Davis Project

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Impacts on Parker-Davis Generation

• No Change in Lake Mohave Lake Havasu Target
  Elevations
• Therefore Head is Not Affected at Parker Davis
  Dams and Generation Varies Only With Water
  Releases
• Lake Mead Elevation Below 1125 ft. Results in
  Normal Water Year Releases
• In Normal Water Years P-D Generates About Current
  Contract Levels of 1346 GWh (Slightly Less Than
  FY03)

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Impacts on Parker-Davis Generation(Cont.)

• In Shortage Years Davis Generation Is Reduced
  Almost Proportionally to Water Reductions
• Parker Generation Should Be Unaffected Since Most
  or All Reductions are Above Parker
• Davis Generation About 80, Parker Generation
  About 20 of Parker-Davis Generation
• Example 10 Reduction In Water Deliveries 8
  Reduction In Parker-Davis Generation

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• Probable Future
• Hoover Parker-Davis
• Generation

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Recent Generation Studies

• Boulder Canyon Project Through 2017
• Average Capacity 1637 MW
• Average Energy 3889 MWh
• (No Modifications to Units)

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Recent Generation Studies

• Parker-Davis Generation Through 2028
• Average Energy Approx. 1380 GWh
• (Reviewing Numbers)

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Mead Filling

• Requires Average or Greater Colorado River Basin
  Runoff
• Lake Powell Fills First Until Volume Greater Than
  Lake Mead (Equalization)
• Possible to Completely Refill in Few Years But
  Requires Very Unusual Runoff (Similar to Early
  80s)

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Probable Future GenerationSummary

• BCP Generation Between 3600 GWh and 4100 GWh Most
  Years
• P-D Generation Near Current Contract Energy of
  1346 GWh Most Years
• Lake Mead Must Fill Above Elevation 1145 ft. for
  Generation Significantly Above These Values
• Generation Would be Significantly Below These
  Values Only in Water Shortage Years

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• For Additional Information
• Contact Brian Young
• byoung_at_wapa.gov
• or 602-352-2594