Stakeholder Briefing on Supply Mix Advice

1
Ontario Electricity Industry Planning Ahead
Amir Shalaby VP, Power System Planning Ontario
Power Authority
Presentation to Canadian Nuclear Society The
Role of Nuclear Power in Future Generation
Planning in Ontario May 4, 2006
2
I will Describe the State of Resource Planning
in Ontario

• Describe the widening supply gap and challenge
  ahead in Ontario
• Describe options to meet Ontarios future needs
• Present a Ten Point Action Plan that the OPA is
  recommending to the Minister of Energy
• Chart the next steps in planning for Ontario

3
OUTLOOK FOR ELECTRICITY IN ONTARIO
4
Meeting Requirements with Conservation,
Renewables, Nuclear and Natural Gas
5
Electricity Production Over 20 Years
6
Supply Mix Action Plan to Ensure Future
Reliability and Flexibility

• Plans must adapt to different possible futures
• Move immediately to capture conservation
  opportunities
• Acquire up to 5,000 MW of wind generation
• Seek to achieve full biomass and waste potential
  to generate electricity
• Continue to closely monitor risks to the coal
  replacement schedule

7
Supply Mix Action Plan to Ensure Future
Reliability and Flexibility

• 6. Adopt a smart gas strategy by using gas only
  in high value applications
• 7. Pursue hydro imports
• 8. Investigate the potential to refurbish
  existing nuclear units
• 9. Initiate approvals and permitting for new
  nuclear
• 10. Develop policies and plans for the
  transmission to integrate the supply options

8
What is the Market like in Ontario?

• Recent contracts indicative
• nuclear refurbishments 63/Mwh
• renewable energy 80/Mwh
• standard offer for small facilities 110-145/Mwh
• RFP awards for gas-fired generation
• Forward price auction
• 73/Mwh to 2010
• Spot market prices are lower on average

9
NEXT STEPS IN PLANNINGFOR ONTARIO

• Feedback on the Supply Mix to the Minister
  (January April 2006)
• Direction to OPA Spring 2006
• Integrated Plan prepared and filed with OEB
  Fall 2006
• Regulatory Review of Integrated Plan Winter
  2006