SAFE FOODS

1
SAFE FOODS

• Work Package 3
• Quantitative Risk Assessment of Combined Exposure
  to Food Contaminants and Natural Toxins
• Leif Busk
• Swedish National Food Administration - NFA

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Riskanalysis as a concept

• Risk management
• Risk evaluation
• Management options
• Implementation
• Control

• Risk assessment
• Hazard identification
• Hazard characterization
• Exposure assessment
• Risk characterization

Risk assessment policy
Risk communication
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What do risk managers need?

• An easily understandable quantification of damage
  after a given exposure
• Inherent uncertainties described
• The methods available today dont provide that
• Probabilistic risk modelling represents a big
  step in the right direction

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Probabilistic modelling
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WP 3 - Primary aspects to be addressed

• Integration of exposure and effect modelling in
  quantitative risk assessment
• Setting of qualitative and quantitative criteria
  for comparing effects of various pesticides,
  mycotoxins and natural toxins
• to be used in assessment of combined exposure to
  chemicals in the food chain

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WP 3 - Primary aspects to be addressed

• Qualitative and quantitative uncertainty and
  variability in various parts of the quantitative
  risk assessment process
• Better use of available consumption databases in
  combined exposure assessment to chemicals in the
  food chain
• to describe exposure of different European
  populations including vulnerable groups

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WP 3 - Objectives

• Perform probabilistic risk modelling
• Exposure, toxicity of food contaminants and
  natural toxins.
• Perform Pan-European risk modelling based on
• different national food consumption databases
• including vulnerable groups
• Evaluate uncertainties in risk assessment
• exposure, adverse effects, susceptibility.

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WP 3 - Objectives

• Perform uncertainty analyses
• demonstrate the impact of
• uncertainty in data
• different risk models
• assumptions made on assessment variables
• Develop criteria for comparative risk analysis
• Develop probabilistic models
• evaluate the risk of combined exposure of
  contaminants and natural toxins
• validate the statistics
• take into account nutrition and labelling aspects

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WP 3 What compounds?

• Pesticides
• Mycotoxins
• Natural Toxins
• Contaminants
• A major point for discussions during Kick Off

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WP 3 - Deliverables

• Paper on
• concentration data quality
• availability of data from different agricultural
  production systems
• Extended Monte Carlo Risk Analysis-software
• a user friendly interoperable EU harmonised food
  consumption database for modelling exposure
• Performance of probabilistic exposure assessments
• contaminants and natural toxins
• validation of statistics
• taking into account nutrition and labelling
  aspects

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WP 3 - Deliverables

• Algorithms for effect modelling including
• dose-response modelling
• bench mark approach
• Paper regarding
• availability of toxicity data relevant for bench
  mark dose modelling
• Position paper on
• qualitative and quantitative criteria and
  methodology of comparative hazard identification
• Paper on
• differences in residue monitoring and risk
  assessment procedures between China and EU

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WP 3 - Deliverables

• Quantitative risk model
• combining data from hazard characterisation and
  exposure assessment
• including uncertainty analyses in all steps of
  the risk assessment procedure
• Paper(s) on qualitative and quantitative results
  of combined exposure to various chemicals in the
  food chain
• including an overview of the qualitative and
  quantitative uncertainties of the assessment

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Essentials for the project as such

• The development of databases
• Improved access to data on contamination and food
  composition from the various production systems
• Development of qualitative and quantitative
  criteria for comparative risk assessment of
  mixtures of chemicals
• qualitative and quantitative uncertainties in the
  assessment will be analysed
• input will be given in the new integrated risk
  analysis model.

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WP 3 - start

• Occurrence of selected pesticides, mycotoxins and
  natural toxins in
• high input systems
• SCOOP, national survey programmes
• low input systems
• BASIS, NETOX
• Harmonisation of food consumption data bases
• Training
• Probabilistic intake modelling of single
  chemicals

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WP 3

• Uncertainty analysis, effect modelling and
  comparative risk assessment
• Integration of toxicity models and exposure
  models, building risk models
• Extending the models with new data
• Applying the models in quantitative risk
  assessment of combined exposure

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WP 3 - Partners

• RIKILT - 1
• Institute for Food Safety, NL
• Exposure models and integration, Dutch data
• RIVM - 14
• National Institute Public Health and Environment,
  NL
• Modelling hazard characterisation and comparing
  toxic effects
• BAG - 16
• Federal Office for Public Health, CH
• Natural toxins, dose response data, Swiss data

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WP 3 Partners

• NFA - 17
• National Food Administration, SE
• Criteria for combined exposure, Swedish data
• ISS - 6
• Institute for Public Health, IT
• Residue data exchange, Italian data
• NINFS - 18
• National Institute of Food Safety and Nutrition,
  CHN
• Comparing risk China vs Europe, Chinese data

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WP 3 - Partners

• DFVF - 19
• Institute for Food Safety and Toxicology, DK
• Cumulative risk, Danish data
• NIPH - 20
• National Institute for Public Health, CZ
• Model testing, Czech data
• IRAS - 33
• Institute for Risk Assessment Science, NL
• Modelling hazard characterisation, comparing
  toxic effects