Floods to Droughts

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Floods to Droughts

• Wendy L. Pearson, Hydrologist
• NOAA NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas
  City, MO

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Living Near the River
http//www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/
content/investigations/es1308/es1308page01.cfm
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NOAAs NWS Mission

• Provide weather, hydrologic, and climate
  forecasts and warnings for the United States for
  the protection of life and property and the
  enhancement of the national economy

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Flood Safety
http//www.floodsafety.noaa.gov
http//www.floodsafety.com/

Vehicles can be swept downstream in as little
as 6 inches of moving water.
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Water Cycle
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How Water is Used Reused
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Reliable Water Information and Services for
Decision Makers
Water Management
Drought Mitigation Flood Control Public Safety
(Flash Floods, Debris Flow) Water Supply Waterway
Commerce Power Generation Agriculture Recreation E
cosystem Health
Weather and Climate Information Temperature Preci
pitation Wind,
Water Information
Hydrology and Water Resource Modeling
Summit to the Sea
Socioeconomic Sciences
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What is a Flood?

• Flash Flood
• River Flood
• Low Water Crossing
• Hurricane Storm Surge
• Hurricane Inland Flooding
• Snowmelt Flooding
• Overland Flooding
• Dam Failures

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Severity of Flooding

• Minor Flooding
• Moderate Flooding
• Major Flooding
• Record Flooding

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Frequency of Flooding
100 year flood 1 Flood 500 year flood 0.2
Flood
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NOAA Water Forecasts Where you are, when you
need them

• Snowpack
• Precipitation
• Soil moisture
• River flow
• Surface storage
• Ground water

Flood warnings for local communities
Critical hydrologic information for
neighborhoods and watersheds Water
supply and soil condition forecasts
for drought risk management
Working Together Federal, Tribal, State, and
Local Agencies, Private Sector and Academia
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NOAA Hydrologic Service Delivery
13 River Forecast Centers (Areas are in Color)
122 Weather Forecast Offices (Areas Outlined in
Black)
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
(HPC) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) Camp Springs, MD
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NWS Products and ServicesRiver Forecast Centers
NCEP QPF
WFO NEXRAD 1
WFO NEXRAD 2
WFO NEXRAD 3

• Short and Extended Range Streamflow Forecasts
• Flash Flood Guidance
• Interagency Support Activities
• Hydrometeorological Discussions
• Hydrometeorological Support Products and Services

NCEP Graphical and
Gridded Products
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NWS Products and ServicesWeather Forecast Offices
NEXRAD
(many)
RFC Graphical, Gridded,and Tabular Products
(many)
Warnings


Public Forecasts

• Public Forecast and Warnings
• Flash Flood Forecast and Warnings
• Service Hydrologist Customer Coordination
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist Service
  Coordination / Outreach

NCEP Weather and Climate Graphical and Gridded
Products
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River level data
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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
http//www.weather.gov/ahps/

• Provide improved water availability and flood
  warning information by leveraging NOAAs
  infrastructure and expertise
• Modernize services through infusion of new
  science and technology
• Enhanced decision support
• Quantification of forecast certainty
• More accurate and timely forecasts and warnings
• Flood mapping
• Visually products

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Outlook vs. Forecast
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Probability Information
Two Ensembles

• Conditional Simulations (CS)
• 55 simulations each starting with the current
  model states only
• Blend of forecast and historic data drive the
  model

• Historical Simulation (HS)
• one simulation for entire period of record
• 55 Hydrographs starting over a range of initial
  conditions
• Represents the hydrologic model climatology

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Decision Support InformationConveying Certainty
Difference indicates relative departure from
normal
Low Flow Information
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Fargo, ND 2009
Iowa City 2009
Cedar Rapids 2009
Cedar Rapids 2008
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Distributed Hydrologic Modeling

• Generate high resolution soil moisture estimates
• Agricultural use
• Debris flows
• Drought
• Extend to finer scales
• Accommodate land use change impacts

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Flood Inundation Mapping
Located with NWS river forecast
locations Depicts flooding from minor to
historical levels Communities can see potential
impacts to the flood-prone areas NOAA is working
with partners states, FEMA, USGS, and USACE to
communicate Flood Risks.
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NOAA National Weather Service

• AHPS Flood Mapping depends on partnerships,
  diligence, dedication, and commitment.

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New Business Model for Water Forecasting
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

• The new approach provides
• Open system architecture to easily accommodate
  addition of models, data, and procedures
• Modern platform for collaboration with
  national/international agencies, universities,
  and private sector to leverage work of others

• Historically, organizations and groups
• Worked independently
• Developed their own unlinked systems
• Duplicated efforts
• Used disparate tools and processes

HistoricalApproach
New Approach
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Emerging Strategy to Advance Water Forecasting

• Enable Full Use of Existing and New Observing
  Systems
• Accelerate Research-to-Operations
• Incorporate models and science developed by
  partners
• Deploy integrated (water, climate, ecosystem
  information) services for time scales of hours to
  months

Private Sector
Bureau of Reclamation
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services
(IWRSS)
EPA
User Needs and Requirements
NOAAs RD and Testbeds
High Resolution Observations and Models
Community Hydrologic Prediction System
NASA
USGS
NOAAs Unified Mission Delivery and Support
Services
Regional Demonstration Projects
USACE
USDA
Academia
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Initial Federal Partnership for Integrated Water
Resources Science and Services
Hydraulic Engineering Center
Hydrology Program
Water Resources Institute
Coastal Services Center
USACE
NOAA
Remote Sensing Centers
Hydromet Testbed
Forecast Offices
Cold Regions Research Lab
USGS
Water Discipline
Water Science Centers
Geography Discipline

• Aligning multi-agency collaboration is essential
• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of
  consistent water resources monitoring and
  forecast information summit to sea
• Sustain quality of life and the natural
  environment
• No water agency can meet the full array of
  climate change-induced water problems on its own

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Integrating to Address the Challenges ForAll
Water Agencies

• In this century, the U.S. will be challenged to
  provide sufficient quantities of high-quality
  water to its growing population.
• - National Research Council
• Estimates of economic losses from recent western
  droughts are billions of dollars.
• - Western Governors Association
• Competition for increasingly limited freshwater
  resources will make water supply availability a
  major economic driver in the 21st century.
• - Nature
• The provision of adequate fresh-water resources
  for humans and ecosystems will be one of the most
  critical and potentially contentious issues
  facing society and governments at all levels in
  the 21st century.
• - American Meteorological Society

Integrating Water Science and Services

• To address growing demand for relevant and
  reliable water information, we must integrate
  our water science and services to provide our
  Nation with water information when and where it
  is needed.

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Drought Monitor
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Homework

• Safety is always 1
• Water runs down hill but which way is that?
• What kind of flood is it?
• What were the contributing factors?
• What factors will increase uncertainty of
  forecast?
• Can I help explain forecasts?
• Societal and Economic Impacts?
• What are the roles and responsibilities of local,
  state, and federal organizations involved?
• Media of all types are partners with NOAA NWS.
  We need storytellers to tell the flood forecast
  story!

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When FLOODS make Headlines

• Deaths
• Record Flooding
• Evacuations
• Possible Disasters
• Millions of Sandbags and thousands of volunteers
• Road closures and washouts

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NWS Message

• Text and Graphics online
• Talking Points and Sound Bites
• Headlines
• Complex Situations
• Scientific Jargon
• Uncertainty

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New Media

• Internet
• U tube
• Online Radio
• TV station web pages
• News Papers Online
• Blogs
• Twitter

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Flood News in Pictures

• http//www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/red_river
  _flooding.html
• http//www.iowaflood.com/
• http//nd.water.usgs.gov/photos/1997RedFlood/