Critical Earth-Related Issues Facing the U.S.

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Critical Earth-Related Issues Facing the U.S.
Professor Michael Wysession Department of Earth
and Planetary Sciences Washington University, St.
Louis, MO
March 9, 2009
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Civilization Exists Through Geologic Consent
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Process of PLATE TECTONICS Creates many LARGE
EARTHQUAKES
Pakistan EQ, 2005
Sichuan EQ, 2008
Sumatra EQ, 2004
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Indian Plate
Burma Microplate
Sumatra
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So.could this happen in New York City?!?
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Massive landslides in places like the Canary
Islands could cause enormous Atlantic tsunamis.
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There have been Giant Undersea Landslides in the
Puerto Rico Trench.
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Mt. St. Helens, Following the 1980 Eruption
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Mt. Mazama erupted in 4860 BC ? 42x larger
than Mt. St. Helens
Crater Lake, Oregon
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Each year gt 25,000 pounds (11.3 metric tons) of
new non-fuel minerals must be provided for each
person in the US. Non-fuel minerals 2.28
trillion of 14.3 trillion GDP (2008)
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Copper humans use 15 million metric tons each
year!! 1.6 billion tons geologically
available 100 years left ??
Ex/ Bingham copper mine in Utah
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Indium (liquid crystal displays in cell phones).
No substitute for this.
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Europium used for red phospor in color TVs and
LCD screens. No substitute, though prices gt
2000/kg
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Erbium used in all fiber-optic cables because
of unique optical properties. No substitute.
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Cerium used to polish almost all mirrors and
lenses because of unique chemical and physical
properties.
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Platinum diesel catalytic converters. No
substitute. Rhodium removing NOx emissions. No
substitute.
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Rare Earth elements like neodymium, samarium,
gadolinium, dysprosium, and praseodymium Used
for high-performance permanent magnets in
electronics, video games, military devices, disk
drives, DVDs. No substitutes. We import 100 of
these! (75 from China)
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U.S. Imports of Minerals (100 for many!)
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At 5 pm today 6,765,535,011 (US Census)
More than doubled during my lifetime. 6 of all
humans that have lived are alive
today. Sustainable level?
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Future Growth
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United States at night. Humans now the single
largest geologic force.
US paved land is now the size of state of
Georgia. US developed land is now the size of the
state of California.
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End of the Cenozoic Era (65 million years ago to
present). Start of the Anthropocene.
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ENERGY RESOURCES
Transitioning from Fossil sources to Renewable
sources. Need ALL sources in the short
term How quickly? How smoothly? How much
intervention?
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gt85 of energy sources are Fossil Fuels
gt90 of energy sources are Non-Renewable
Energy Sources
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OIL NATURAL GAS
Petroleum Burial and Recovery Our Oil is 100-300
Myr old
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World uses 84 million barrels/day World reserves
1 trillion barrels
Oil will continue to dominate for the first half
of the 21st century
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U.S. uses 21 million barrels/day (25 of
World) (7.7 billion/year) U.S. reserves 21
billion barrels (2 - 2.7 years) TOTAL U.S.
Off-limits Offshore Oil in all areas? 18
billion barrels (2.3 years) (Est. by U.S. Dept of
Interior Minerals Management Service) Total
Amount of Oil taken out of Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
(North Americas Largest oil field)? 13 billion
barrels in 28 years. 3 billion barrels
left Total Oil in Alaska National Wildlife
Refuge? 10.4 billion barrels (1.4 years) (mean
USGS est.) TOTAL U.S. possible reserves and
resources (high-end guess by DOI MMS)? 96
billion barrels (12.5 years)
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COAL
.but coal will dominate the second half of the
21st century
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COAL
World reserves of coal 1 trillion short
tons World use of coal 7 billion short tons
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Coal has a large Carbon Footprint
Sep, 2008 Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Vattenfall energy company, Germany
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The new fossil fuel METHANE GAS HYDRATES
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Methane
ICE
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What happens when we squeeze the sponge too
many times? Total Rate of World Energy Use 18
Terawatts (Planet Earth cools off at rate of 44
Terawatts) Total Power from the Sun at Earths
Surface 125,000 Terawatts!! ? 7000x Total
Human Energy Use!! ? 1 Hour of Sunlight 1
Year of Human Energy Use!
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SOLAR POWER
Commercial Panels 12 Efficiency Experimental
Panels 22 Efficiency Nanotech Cells gt40
Efficiency Organics cheaper 5 --gt 10
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Example Kramer Junction solar power plants,
Mojave Desert, CA 150 MW
Average Solar Power Potential (factoring in
atmosphere, clouds nighttime) 250 W/m2
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Increase in Solar Photovoltaic Power
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WIND POWER
(Altamont Pass, California)
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Cost Non-linearly Connected to Wind Speed
(usually at 80 m)
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HYDROGEN
Not a Source, but a means of Distribution Will
compete with New Battery Technology (Electric
Cars)
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Electric Cars
Number of Cars
Percentage Increase
Fleet is doubling every three years.
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Tesla Roadster
Fiskar Karma
(Success depends on advances in battery
technology)
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Chevy Volt
First 40 miles run off batteries. Small
engine extends distance if needed, at gt100 mpg
Plugs into any 120-240VAC outlet
Currently Electric 0.01/mi Gas 0.10/mi
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NUCLEAR FISSION
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Uranium Reserves World Reserves 3.5 million
tons of uranium oxide World Resources 10
million tons World Use 60 thousand
tons/yr Outlook 150-200 years
BUT.bigger issue is nuclear waste Yucca
Mountain officially off the table (3/2009)
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US Water Usage
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For 1/6 worlds population No clean drinking
water 3.3 million deaths/yr Major US rivers
dont make it to ocean (Colorado, Rio Grande)
UN Projection for 2050 For 2 - 7 billion humans
chronic water shortages
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Western US is in a worsening drought.
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Projected Precipitation, 2080-209 9
(Base years
1980-1990)
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Global Carbon Dioxide Cycle
Barrow, AK CO2
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Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous
Oxide Chlorofluorocarbons
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Correlation between Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
and Global Temperatures
Ice Ages driven by Fluctuations in Earths Orbit
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2008 - Preliminary
More tornadoes in 2008 than in any year of the
past half-century.
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Projected Temperatures, 2080-2090
(Base years 1980-1990)
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900-1300 AD Warm and dry period ? Mayan culture
collapses
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900-1300 AD Warm and dry period ? American
Southwest cultures like the one at Chaco Canyon
collapse. Anasazi peoples disappear.
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Why does the plague strike Europe in the 1300s?
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• 1300 AD Cold spell due to a minimum in solar
  activity
• Great famine of 1315-1317
• Black Death, 1345

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Begins with flooding in China. More than 7
million drown in Yellow River.
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Why does the French Revolution occur in 1789?
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1783 Laki volcano, Iceland Asama volcano, Japan
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After 1815 there is a huge push of U.S. Westward
Expansion. Why?
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1816 is known as the Year without a summer. It
snows in New England in the summer.
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Volcanoes!
1812 Soufriere volcano, St. Vincent Island 1814
Mayon volcano, Philippines 1815 Tambora volcano,
Indonesia
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Last 10,000 years VERY warm AND stable!!
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With any additional questions, please contact me
at michael_at_seismo.wustl.edu
Teaching Company course How the Earth Works
48 thirty-minute lectures