Does superstition reflect rationality?

1
In a Mirror, Darkly

• Does superstition reflect rationality?
• Konrad Talmont-Kaminski

2
The very model of irrationality

• A superstitious person
• Begins the day with a ritual
• Avoids crossing the path of a weasel
• Looks for meaning in dreams
• Will not stand on a grave
• Treats some days of the month as special
• Spits to protect himself against evil spirits
• Theophrastus Characters (370 - circa 285 B.C.)

3
Whats changed in 2300 years?

• Richard Wiseman, Hertfordshire (2003)
• Knocking on wood 74
• Crossing fingers 65
• Not walking under ladders 50
• Gallup, US (2001)
• ESP 41
• Haunted houses 37
• Telepathy 31
• Any one of 10 listed beliefs 73

4
More data

• CBOS, Poland (2006)
• Signs of the zodiac 30
• Lucky objects 26
• Unlucky days 24

5
Ubiquitous superstition

• Superstitious beliefs are highly resistant to
• scientific advances
• philosophical argumentation
• cultural progress
• Superstitiousness has not been eliminated by
  evolution
• Superstitiousness is still (nearly) universal,
  both as
• tendency to accept superstitious beliefs
• actual holding of superstitious beliefs

6
The irrational animal

• Aristotle
• Man is a rational animal
• Bertrand Russell Unpopular Essays
• It has been said that man is a rational animal.
  All my life I have been searching for evidence
  which could support this.

7
Two problematic questions

• Why is superstition so hard to get rid of?
• Are human beings actually irrational?
• The questions appear difficult because were
  viewing superstition in terms of the traditional
  opposition between rationality and superstition

8
The traditional opposition

• Superstitions
• Paradigm of irrationality
• Ancient Greek philosophers
• Enlightenment philosophers
• Emblematic of backwardness and ignorance
• Rationality
• Regulative Ideal
• Understood in non-physicalist terms
• Consisting of universal principles
• On this view tenacity of superstition facing
  rational criticism suggests humans profoundly
  irrational
• Traditional view of rationality known to be
  problematic since David Hume

9
A natural phenomenon

• Naturalising rationality
• Placing reason in its evolutionary context
  (Konrad Lorenz)
• Moving away from ignorance
• Pragmatic considerations central
• Bounded rationality (Herbert Simon)
• Bounded epistemic/cognitive abilities
• Rational methods applicable in limited epistemic
  contexts
• Naturalising superstitions
• Superstition understood as an evolved trait
• Closely related to Dennetts project of
  understanding religious beliefs as a natural
  phenomenon

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Evolutionary explanation

• Evolution gives a range of mechanisms for
  explaining the persistence of superstitions
• Adaptive value
• By-product
• Lacking adaptive value
• Linked to an adaptive trait
• Superstitions do not have to be all explained
  using the same mechanisms
• Thesis (Some) superstitions are the by-product
  of our limited cognitive capabilities
• To explain, necessary to discuss cognitive
  illusions

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Perceptual / cognitive illusions

• Perceptual illusions
• Caused by applying general heuristics in
  inappropriate contexts
• Evidence for how our perceptual processes work
• A by-product of perceptual heuristics
• Cognitive illusions
• Caused by applying general heuristics in
  inappropriate contexts
• Evidence for how our cognitive processes work
• A by-product of cognitive heuristics
• Possible explanation for (some) superstitions
• Good excuse to present some interesting examples

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Perceptual illusions - examples

• http//www.lottolab.org/Illusions page.html

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Cognitive illusions - examples

• Think of a city in northern Europe that lies
  directly north of the tip of the Italian boot.
• London has a population of (very roughly) 10
  million people. Imagine theres a disease which
  10 thousand Londoners have. Youve just had the
  test for it and it came back positive. What is
  the percentage chance youre actually sick if the
  test has a 5 false positive chance?

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What do illusions tell us?

• Kahnemann/Tversky
• Cognitive illusions show humans irrational
• View leads to exactly the same problems as with
  superstitious beliefs
• Assumes deductive validity is the standard for
  rationality
• Gigerenzer
• Cognitive illusions show how humans reason
• Understands rationality in pragmatic/ecological
  terms
• Investigates the effectiveness of cognitive
  heuristics in the contexts in which they are
  usually applied

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Example of heuristic use

• Krakow / Warsaw
• Torun / Zielona Gora
• Lublin / Lodz
• Warsaw / Kolobrzeg
• Zielona Gora / Krakow
• Torun / Kolobrzeg

• Warsaw
• Torun
• Lodz
• Warsaw
• Krakow
• Torun

• Random guessing should give 3 correct answers on
  average
• Recognition heuristic used If Ive heard of it,
  it is probably bigger
• A very effective heuristic given the structure of
  the data (ecological rationality)
• Studied by Gigerenzer
• Counterintuitive effect less knowledge leads to
  better results

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Research project

• Could (some) superstitions be due to cognitive
  illusions?
• Explains the persistence of superstition
• Superstition is caused by the misapplication of
  generally effective heuristics
• Explains the ubiquity of superstition
• Same basic set of heuristics used by all people
• Need to identify the relationship between
  individual superstitions and individual cognitive
  illusions
• One of the research aims for the fellowship at
  the Konrad Lorenz Institute

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Conclusions

• Superstition
• May turn out to be a by-product of rational
  thinking
• Can not be eliminated
• Can be partially counteracted by making people
  aware of
• The heuristics they use
• The limitations of these heuristics
• Alternative heuristics
• The limitations of those heuristics
• The sciences do some of this

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Thank you

• ktalmont_at_bacon.umcs.lublin.pl
• deisidaimon.wordpress.com