Adversary Behavior

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Modeling Small Network Dynamics
Whitman Richards M. I.
T. Computer Science and Artificial
Intelligence Laboratory
MURI Computational Models for Belief Revision,
Group Decisions and Cultural Shifts
28 Feb 07
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A Complex Network Structure
Sageman Chen, 2005
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Militant Core a small social network
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Three Aspects of Small Groups
Goals, beliefs sacred vs secular values
Model for Core (i.e leader-soldier relations) a
network
Model for Recruitment conformity vs consistency
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Part I Recruitment
Conformity - Consistency Model (Page et al.)
Conformity want to be like one of the BIG
guys
Consistency want your beliefs to be in harmony
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A Surprise Time to Equilibrium (mean field)





Individual Consistency -
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Consanguineous Marriages (Bittles et al.)
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Part II
Small Network Models
Small Graphs

• Impossibility Theorem think small !
• New Representation leader dominance vs bonding

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2004 Australian Bombing (Militant Minority)
Atran, Magourik et al
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2004 Australian Bombing (Militant Minority)
Atran et al
Max. Vtx. Deg 3 Triangles 1
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Lacunae Data lacking on..
Street Gang Evolution
Hmong, Haitian, Yakusa, Somali
Street Gang Recruitment
Whats sacred? Why join? Buddy vs friend of
friend Roles of contact, video, email
Mergers from Small to Global
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More Lacunae
Mergers Physical vs Virtual links given 2
gangs, which member of each is most likely to
build bridge? Web networking friends of friends
(myspace, etc.) likely candidates for militant
acts (eg High School) How to evaluate trust in a
network? Disenchantment (return to earlier
beliefs) Email analysis text style - tag for
hidden content (analog to voice
analysis.) Violent vs non-violent spectrum what
are key parameters? Long term supporters
(requires different model.) Extent of
strategizing at what level? Emotional
factors. Y-factor propaganda, secular vs
sacred.
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MURI Scope
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The Team
Decision-Making Strategic Planning
Brian Stankiewicz, Univ. of Texas, Austin,
Exptl Psychology Avi Pfeffer,
Harvard, Computer Science
Consultants Robert Axelrod, University of
Michigan, Political Science Marc
Sageman, University of Penna., M.D., PhD.