Support for School Statistics from Statistics NZ

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Support for School Statisticsfrom Statistics NZ

• mike.camden_at_stats.co.nz
• Statistics New Zealand
• Auckland Maths Assoc, University of Auckland
• Tue 25 Nov 08

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Achievement objectives for today

• Participants will
• Use Stats NZ resources todeliver curriculum
  objectives
• Feel more confident and have more funwith
  teaching the stats in Mathematics and Statistics
  in the NZ Curriculum
• Find out (if time)what do (some Stats NZ)
  statisticians really do!

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Activities with www.stats.govt.nz

• After an introductory ramble
• Schools cornerStatZing!SURFs 1, 2,
  3CensusAtSchool (a mention)
• Table Builder ( TB) esp Census data
• InfoshareTime series galore
• Hot Off The Presses ( HOTPs) HOTPs and
  Statistical Literacy
• QuickStats about your place etc
• Then what do (some) statisticians really do!

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Curriculum and Stats NZ Resources 1

• The threads in the Stats and Probability strand
• Statistical investigationphenomena involving
  multivariate (case) datasets time-series
  datasets
• Statistical literacyreports with words, numbers,
  graphsrisk
• Probabilitydistributionsdependence etc

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Curriculum and Stats NZ Resources 2

• The threads and resources for them
• Statistical investigation Schools
  Corner,StatZing!phenomena involving HOTPs
  multivariate (case) datasets SURFs,TB,CaS
  time-series datasets Infoshare
• Statistical literacy NZ in Profilereports
  with Quickstats
• words, numbers, graphs HOTPs risk,
  relative risk HOTPs, Tables
• Probabilitydistributions Tables
  dependence etc Tables 2 way

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Curriculum and Stats NZ Resources 3

• Some are designed for schools
• Some are(a big one) inadvertently useful for
  schools!EG The HOTPs (Hot Off The Presses)EG
  a rich source of real (we hope) info
• New Zealand Income Survey June 2008 quarter (a
  big one)
• Highlights    Commentary    Technical notes   
  Erratum    Tables   

Stat investigation Story, Data Time series
Stat investigation Methodology defining
questions, sampling methods, errors (samp
and non) etc etc etc etc
Stat Literacy Evaluate stat reports (L 6,7,8)
Probability One-way tables Two-way tables
Statistical Enquiry Cycle PPDAC PPDAC PPDAC
PPDAC PPDAC
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Why be nice to schools??

• Stats NZ The World
• We need our clients to be informed positive
• School stats is a vital way to achieve this

Respondents People Businesses
Dataset
Dataset
Dataset
Data
Information
Users Public Professional Technical
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Two groups with converging interests
The Mathematics and Statistics Education
Community
The Official Stats sector
Vision an informed society using
statistics.
Curriculum students will be thinking
mathematically and statistically solving
problems, modelling situations.
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A small problem
Dataset

• Unit-record multivariate datasetsTeachers need
  them!Official Stats agencies have lots but
  cant release them!

Dataset
Dataset
SURF 1
SURF 2
Some smart solutions
SURF 3
CensusAtSchool (sort-of)SURFs for Schools 1, 2,
3Tables by geographical Area
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Census at school 2009

• New dates3 March 2009 until 9 April 2009
• Register online http//www.censusatschool.org.nz
  /2007/register/
• If you have previously registered, OK.
  Confirmation in November.
• FundedX by Stats NZ(1-X) by MoE
• ExpertiseLots of it from UoA

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New for 2009

• Teachers get their class results back if they
  choose.
• Early in year so 2009 data can be used for 2009
  teaching.
• New questions from consultationsDept of Stats
  UoA, MoE, Stats NZ, teachers nationwide
• Questionnaire critiqued by StatsNZ Questionnaire
  design team

www.censusatschool.org.nz
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www.stats.govt.nz
4 Releases by title HOTPs
3 Infoshare
2 Table Builder
5 QuickStats
1 Schools Corner StatZing!, SURFs
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Find Info by/for
SURFs
StatZing! Latest Sec (Economics)
SURF 2
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SURFs for Schools

• Synthetic Unit Record Files
• Multivariate datasets from Stats NZ surveys
• Income supplement from the 2004 Household Labour
  Force Survey
• 2001 Household Savings Survey
• Coming soon 2006 Census

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2001 Household Savings Survey SURF

• Based on a survey that collected information
  including income, assests, debt,net worth.
• 300 synthetic people representing the 5000
  people who responded to the survey.

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2001 Household Savings Survey SURF

• Variables include

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Using the SURF
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• Teacher page for each activity
• Curriculum links
• Possible answers
• Available as a PDF document

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What can we improve?
For teachers
For students
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Census SURF 3

• Under development final checking
• Based on 2006 Census of Population and Dwellings
• Contains unit record datasets for each of New
  Zealands 16 main Regional Authorities
• 300 synthetic people who represent everyone that
  responded for each region

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Census SURF 3

• Variables included
• Sex
• Work and Labour force status
• Qualification
• Ethnicity
• Income
• Age Group
• Mode of transport to work
• Hours worked
• Cigarette smoking behaviour
• Access to a cellphone/mobile phone
• Access to the internet

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Preserved relationships
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Limitations SURF 3 Census

• Synthetic data
• Not all relationships and patterns are preserved
• Joining tables together does not represent the
  whole of New Zealand
• However, you can compare regions!

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Battle for the greener suburban example using
case data

• Compare the traveling to work habits of
  geographic areas.
• Which area has the greener workers?
• Walking / Running / Cycling
• Public transport
• Carpooling???
• Working at home?
• (Graphic from CensusAtSchool)

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Battle for the greener suburbwhere to find
the data
 
 

• We want a data source that contains information
  about modes of travel to work by area units.
• Luckily, we have the 2006 Census of Population
  and Dwellings on Table Builder!

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2 Table Builder
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2006 Pop Census
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Selected tables
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Age by Sex soon
Travel to Work
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Travel to work in the four Auckland cities
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Travel to work in Kapiti and Wellington
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Table Builder Datasets on Area Units
At this pointthe screen-shots stop. But theres
a 2-slide summary
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www.stats.govt.nz for schools short guide p1

• Schools Corner
• SURF (No. 2)
• About the data source The dataset
  Activities (copy the dataset and paste into
  your spreadsheet)
• StatZing! (the latest Activities)
• Find by (find old StatZing!s etc)
• Table Builder
• 2006 Population Census
• Selected tables
• Travel to Work
• Expand (find the Areas you want)
  Tick (use the ticks above and to left)
• Click the Table icon
• Actions, download to XL format
• (then copy and paste into your
  spreadsheet package)
• Age by Sex for 1996, 2001, 2006 (then as
  above)

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www.stats.govt.nz for schools short guide p2

• Infoshare
• Browse
• Work, Income and Spending
• Linked Employer-Employee Dataset
• Age and ANZIC96 (ANZ Industry
  Classification 1996)
• Select a few items, and for Time,
  Select All
• Go
• Pivot clockwise, to get data into a
  column
• Save as xls
• (copy the dataset and paste
  into your spreadsheet)
• Releases by Title (Takes you to Hot Off The
  Presses)
• NZ Income Survey
• NZ Income Survey June 2008
• (then explore these)
• HighlightsCommentaryTechnical notesErra
  tumTables 
• QuickStats about a Place
• (and also see QuickStats about a Subject, and NZ
  in Profile)
• Place List (and find your suburb)
• (and use the 12 tabs).

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What Statisticians do all day an eg

• The new Immigration SurveyPop 36,620
  approved immigrants in 2004Sample 7,125 of
  them
• We find Estimates (via resampling) with
  Sample Errors ( half the confidence interval)

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Sample Error vs Estimate
Hmmmmmm what does that show?
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Sample Error (up) vs Estimate (across)
For cells from the Immigration Survey NZ
Sample Error fromthe data by Jackknife (ie
resampling)
Standard Deviationfrom binomial model v
(p (1-p) N)
Sample error has lots of variation Can we
explain some of it? How? What function might
it fit? For the lower (blue) points, what did we
forget?
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Some consultation

• We asked Pat

You need to multiply by the 2 value Sample Error
z Standard Error 1.96 Standard
Error
They forgot to multiply by 2 (or 2 ish) Why
are they so dumb in Wellington??
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Sample Error vs Estimate
Sample Error fromthe data by Jackknife (ie
resampling)
Sample Errorfrom binomial model z v (p
(1-p) N)
Hmmmmmm how does that look?
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To confidentialise, we added noise 4
Noise fromconfidentialising is about this big
Noise from samplingvaries, but is this big
Does the noise from confidentialising matter?
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What do we do all day?
In a Stats office
In a Stats classroom
Find a problem that matters Find some Data
(Evidence) Talk, scratch heads Do some graphs Try
models using Maths Make mistakes Consult with
wise heads Do more graphs Make decisions Communica
te results in words, numbers, graphs
Find a problem that matters Find some Data
(Evidence) Talk, scratch heads Do some graphs Try
models using Maths Make mistakes Consult with
wise heads Do more graphs Make decisions Communica
te results in words, numbers, graphs

• We hope you enjoy statistical discovery as we do!!

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Gender Balance in Waitakere
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The Maths and Stats teachers vital role

• If the next cohorts of adults can handle
  statistical evidence and thinking
• Thatll be nice for Statistics NZ!which
  produces social, economic and environmental
  stats
• Thats utterly essential for solutions to NZs
  and the Earths challenges.
• 
  Enjoy!!